For anyone who has been following the Pittsburgh Penguins this season, it's been a pretty remarkable campaign for their top-line trio of Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell, and Bryan Rust.
The trouble is that – in comparison to the rest of their teammates – it's been a bit too remarkable.
Individually, each player has been playing some of his best hockey. Several milestones and career-highs are in play for each player:
- Crosby (25 goals, 53 assists, 78 points): Crosby is just two points shy of breaking Wayne Gretzky's point-per-game seasons record, which he figures to clinch at 20. He also has a chance to register his 13th season at 30 or more goals, as he has six goals in his past seven games.
- Rakell (32-30-62): Rakell's 32 goals is just two below his career-high mark of 34, which he set in 2017-18. He is also just seven points shy of his career-high of 69 points set that same season.
- Rust (25-29-54): With two goals in Sunday's 4-3 shootout loss to the Florida Panthers, Rust is just three goals shy of 200 for his career. The six-time 20-goal scorer – all in succession over the last six seasons – would be just the ninth player in franchise history to reach the 200-goal plateau with the organization.
But the success of the first line has really exposed the Penguins as a true one-line team this season. Of the 212 total goals the Penguins have scored this season, at least one of Crosby, Rust, and Rakell has factored in on 56.6 percent of them, and they have scored 38.7 percent of the team's goals this season.
In addition, Crosby (20:21), Rust (19:43), and Rakell (19:22) are, on average, playing two minutes more per game than the next-closest forward, Evgeni Malkin (17:54).
For a frame of reference, there are very good NHL teams that get very top-heavy production, such as the Edmonton Oilers. The difference is that Edmonton – in addition to scoring more goals than the Penguins – have arguably the best player in the NHL this season in Leon Draisaitl.
His 49 goals lead the NHL – he is also the only player in hockey this season with more than 40 goals – and his 101 points are second to only Colorado Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon's 105. Connor McDavid, the consensus best player in the world, also has 26 goals and 90 points for the Oilers this season.
Teams with a one-two punch like that can afford to have most of their production come from those players because they're simply producing more than guys like Crosby – the Penguins' best player – at this juncture. Their respective teams typically have a higher goal output, too, and McDavid and Draisaitl – both in their primes – mostly play on separate lines.
The best NHL teams need at least two high-end lines in terms of production, and Pittsburgh simply doesn't have that luxury anymore. Penguins second-line center Malkin, 38, has just 15 goals and 46 points in 62 games, which can be partially explained by injuries and lack of talent on his wings.
He is also aging, as is Crosby. The Penguins' captain has showed less age than Malkin the last few seasons, and the Penguins have discovered throughout the course of this season that it's better to load up their top line and hope for the best with the rest rather than try to weaken the top line for the benefit of more balance in the lineup.
The fact of the matter is that the Penguins cannot simply rely on those two to completely carry their production anymore. And if they're going to compete, they can't entirely rely on an entire first line of players age 31 or older carrying their production, either.
If the Penguins are to return to contention as quickly as possible, they need to acquire or develop at least two young, top-six talents who can take some of the burden off of Crosby's line – as well as Malkin – to produce.
They have a ton of draft capital, they have a lot of cap space for free agency, they have some near-NHL-ready prospects, and they have some leverage for trade opportunities. A priority for POHO and GM Kyle Dubas this offseason should be landing a player who can make the Penguins at least a two-line team again.
You can track Crosby's pursuit of Gretzky's point-per-game seasons record here.
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