For the second straight season to open the Mark Pope era, the Kentucky Wildcats are playing for a berth in the Sweet 16. Sunday in St. Louis, the Cats will take on the No. 2 seed Iowa State Cyclones. On the line is a trip to Chicago and the Sweet 16.
The Cats can do this. They have momentum on their side, and they have belief. Those two things are vital in the month of March.
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Iowa State is really good. That much has been known all season. What’s not known is what will happen Sunday afternoon. Again, as KSR’s Matt Jones said, the NCAA Tournament is so random.
With that, let’s take a closer look at Iowa State and their key players to watch, keys to the game, and score prediction.
NCAA Tournament First Round: Iowa State 108 — Tennessee State 74
Even after Joshua Jefferson went down early, the Cyclones cruised to a 34-point win in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament over the Tigers. They did it with an efficient offensive performance and an aggressive performance on the glass.
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Iowa State shot 52.8 percent from the floor and 11-24 from three-point range. The Cyclones won the rebound battle 43-29, and they had 24 assists to just 11 turnovers. Of the Cyclones’ 43 rebounds, 18 were on the offensive glass.
Killyan Toure led the Cyclones with 25 points and 11 rebounds, including eight on the offensive end, with Nate Heise right behind with 22 points and four three-pointers. Milan Momcilovic had 17 points and three three-pointers, while Blake Buchanan led the Cyclones with eight assists.
On defense, the Cyclones forced 16 Tigers’ turnovers and held them to just 5-21 from three-point range. The Tigers shot just 43.1 percent from the floor and had just 14 assists.
The big story, though, is that Joshua Jefferson sustained a left ankle sprain less than three minutes into the game. He was helped off by members of the Iowa State training staff, and it’s now being reported that he is unlikely to play Sunday. Still, though, Cyclones head coach T.J. Otzelberger didn’t rule him out on Saturday.
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Players to watch on Iowa State
1. No. 22: Milan Momcilovic — 6-8, 225 lbs. Jr. Guard; PEWAUKEE, Wis.
Stats: 17.1 pts, 3.1 rebs, 51.3 FG%, 49.4 3-PT FG%, 88.3 FT%, 30.3 mpg
First Round vs. Tennessee State: 17 pts (6-11 FG, 3-7 3-PT FG), 2-2 FT, 4 rebs, 2 ast, 2 blk, 35 mins
All-Big 12 Second Team
Entering the Second Round on Saturday, Momcilovic leads the country in three-point field goal percentage at 49.4 percent. This is a tremendous shooter, a player who nailed eight three-pointers in the Big 12 Semifinals against Arizona just last Friday. It’s his season-high in three-pointers, a number he’s reached four times this season.
Eleven times this season, Momcilovic has made at least five three-pointers in a game. It’s also what’s enabled him to have 14 games with 20+ points. Only five times this season did Momcilovic not make multiple three-pointers.
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Momcilovic is going to get his three-pointers. There’s no denying that. But how many he gets will be a critical factor in deciding this game.
2. No. 5: Joshua Jefferson — 6-9, 240 lbs, Sr. Forward; LAS VEGAS (Saint Mary’s Transfer)
Stats: 16.4 pts, 7.4 rebs, 167 ast.-89 TO, 47.1 FG%, 34.5 3-PT FG%, 70% FT, 30.8 mpg
First Round vs. Tennessee State: 2 pts (1-1 FG), 1 reb., 3 mins
Consensus Second-Team All-American
All-Big 12 First Team
It’s not yet completely known if Jefferson isn’t going to play Sunday. The feeling is he isn’t, which would be a massive loss for Iowa State. Jefferson is the leader in assists on the Cyclones, and he’s Momcilovic’s sidekick. Without him, Momcilovic and the Cyclones are vulnerable.
Jefferson has four games with 10+ assists this season, including a season-high of 12. He also has 10 games with 20+ points and has scored in double figures in every game this season except Friday, when he left early with an ankle injury.
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Eighteen times this season, Jefferson has dished out five or more assists. That’s how important he is to this team.
3. No. 3: Tamin Lipsey — 6-1, 200 lbs. Sr. Guard; AMES, Iowa
Stats: 12.9 pts, 3.9 rebs, 71 stl, 158 ast.-46 TO, 45.6 FG%, 30.9 3-PT FG%, 64.2 FT%, 31.1 mpg
First Round vs. Tennessee State: 3 pts (1-6 FG), 1-2 FT, 2 rebs, 2 ast, 1 TO, 3 stl, 17 mins
All-Big 12 Second Team
All-Big 12 Defensive Team
Lipsey is a ball magnet, as evidenced by his third selection to the Big 12 All-Defensive team this season. He has 18 games this season with multiple steals, and eight games with four or more steals.
It’s not just that he’s a great defender. Lipsey is looking to take the ball away throughout the game. He can also score and dish out assists, with 18 games of five or more assists on the season.
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4. No. 23: Blake Buchanan — 6-10, 235 lbs. Jr. Forward; COEUR d’ALENE, Idaho (Virginia Transfer)
Stats: 8.5 pts, 5.7 rebs, 34 blk, 64.1 FG%, 0-1 3-PT FG, 47.9 FT%, 24.1 mpg
First Round vs. Tennessee State: 11 pts (5-9 FG), 1-2 FT, 7 rebs, 8 ast, 1 TO, 2 blk, 3 stl, 26 mins
Buchanan led the Cyclones with eight assists on Friday, remarkable considering he only had 50 assists coming into the NCAA Tournament. Only twice this season has Buchanan shot lower than 50 percent in a game.
With all of the talent on the Cyclones, even if Jefferson doesn’t play, the Cats can’t let Buchanan make too much of an impact on the offensive end. He’s efficient, so the Cats can’t let Buchanan get too many shots and buckets.
This is an experienced player, as Buchanan was All-State in each of his four seasons in high school.
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5. No. 27: Killyan Toure — 6-3, 205 lbs. Fr. Guard; PAMIERS, France
Stats: 8.5 pts, 3.4 rebs, 45.9 FG%, 31.6 3-PT FG%, 72.2 FT%, 24.9 mpg
First Round vs. Tennessee State: 25 pts (8-12 FG, 2-3 3-PT FG), 7-8 FT, 11 rebs (8 off.), 6 ast, 6 TO, 30 mins
This is the player that scares me the most. When he’s on, he’s on and electrifying. The scarier part for the Big 12, and maybe college basketball, is that he’s only a Freshman. If he keeps improving the way he has throughout this season, Toure could be a really good player and a potential All-Conference performer.
Toure is erratic, though, and that is what could be an advantage for Kentucky. But it could also be a disadvantage. If the Cats can bait Toure into tough situations offensively, that’s going to open up opportunities in transition. What the Cats can’t do is catch any turnover disease Toure could present on Sunday.
With 80 assists and 60 turnovers on the season, chaos is in Toure’s name. He had six of each on Friday against Tennessee State. If Jefferson is out Sunday, Toure becomes more of a focal point on the scouting report. Be aggressive against him and keep him off the glass, especially on the offensive end.
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Toure played his senior year of high school at Brewster Academy in New Hampshire, with his team finishing third in the ESPN High School National Rankings.
6. No. 1: Jamarion Batemon — 6-3, 195 lbs. Fr. Guard; MILWAUKEE
Stats: 6.9 pts, 1.2 rebs, 40.5 FG%, 38.4 3-PT FG%, 78.8 FT%, 15.5 mpg
First Round vs. Tennessee State: 8 pts (3-10 FG, 2-7 3-PT FG), 1 TO, 1 stl, 23 mins
Batemon is a great role player off the bench. He comes in and gives the Cyclones really good minutes, plus he can score and shoot. Not a bad college start for the seventh-highest-ranked signee in Iowa State’s modern era and a consensus top 100 player in the country by 247Sports, ESPN, and Rivals.
He has scored in double figures 10 times this season, including eight times in Big 12 play. In addition, he’s made multiple three-pointers 14 times this season, including Friday against Tennessee State.
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7. No. 0: Nate Heise — 6-5, 212 lbs. R-Sr. Guard; LAKE CITY, Minn. (Northern Iowa Transfer)
Stats: 5.2 pts, 4 rebs/gm., 44.7 FG%, 33.8 3-PT FG%, 66.7 FT%, 24.4 mpg
First Round vs. Tennessee State: 22 pts (8-13 FG, 4-5 3-PT FG), 2-4 FT, 4 rebs, 3 ast, 1 TO, 1 stl, 27 mins
If Jefferson is out, expect Heise to play a lot of minutes. He’s in his sixth season of college basketball, so he’s not fazed by the moment.
Heise has scored in double figures five times this season, including 22 points on Friday against Tennessee State. He’s played 27+ minutes 13 times this season, and he could see a lot of action Sunday if Jefferson can’t go.
8. No. 21: Dominykas Pleta — 6-11, 240 lbs. Fr. Forward; GOTHA, Germany
Stats: 4.6 pts, 2.3 rebs, 71.4 FG%, 62.7 FT%, 11.4 mpg
First Round vs. Tennessee State: 9 pts (3-3 FG), 3-4 FT, 3 rebs, 2 ast, 12 mins
The first true international recruit in Otzelberger’s time at Iowa State and the second player in program history from Germany, Pleta is really efficient on the offensive end. Pleta has had only four games shooting under 50 percent when he has taken at least one shot.
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Two of Pleta’s four double-digit scoring games have come in the Cyclones’ last five games. This is the epitome of a benchwarmer, and the Cats can’t let him get hot.
Head Coach: T.J. Otzelberger (5th Season, 123-52; 10th Season Overall, 222-115) — 48 years old
Taking over a program that had won just two games the season before arriving back in Ames, Iowa, Otzelberger has completely brought the Cyclones back to championship contention in the Big 12 and on a national level. In Otzelberger’s first season as the Cyclones’ head coach, they went to the Sweet 16 as the No. 11 seed in the Midwest Region. The Cyclones went back to the Sweet 16 in 2024, the year they won the Big 12 Tournament.
Otzelberger is no stranger to Ames, Iowa. He was the lead recruiter and bench coach for Greg McDermott, Fred Hoiberg, and Steve Prohm as an assistant. It was two stints that spanned 2006 to 2013 and again in the 2015 to 2016 season, when the Cyclones advanced to the Sweet 16. In 2012, Otzelberger was an assistant at Iowa State when Kentucky beat them in the Round of 32 on their way to a national championship.
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Prior to Iowa State, Otzelberger was the head coach at UNLV and South Dakota State. At South Dakota State, the Jackrabbits reached the NCAA Tournament in 2017 and 2018, with Otzelberger winning Summit League Coach of the Year in 2018. Mike Daum was the star of those teams, becoming the 10th player in major college basketball history with more than 3,000 career points.
T.J.’s wife, Alison Lacey, is a three-time All-Big 12 player for Iowa State Women’s Basketball, leading the Cyclones to the Elite Eight in 2009. The 10th overall pick by the Seattle Storm in the 2010 WNBA Draft, Lacey was a member of the Storm’s WNBA Championship team. Alison was inducted into the Iowa State Athletics Hall of Fame in 2022.
Keys to the Game
1. Make the Cyclones EARN their points
Iowa State is as efficient offensively as any team in the country. If the Cats are going to win this game, they’re going to have to make the Cyclones work to score the ball. That means forcing them into tough shots and preventing them on the offensive glass.
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The Cyclones shot 52.8 percent from the field and 11-24 from three-point range on Friday against Tennessee State. Kentucky must hold the Cyclones to lower numbers if they want to pull out this win.
2. Do NOT get caught up in the Cyclones’ chaotic style of play
The Cyclones thrive on causing chaos on both ends of the floor. Tamin Lipsey is a ball magnet on defense, and Iowa State moves the ball with tenacity on offense.
For Kentucky, they have to play great man-to-man defense and take care of the ball offensively. Don’t give the Cyclones any chance to get into a high rhythm offensively, and don’t let them create turnovers on defense to get out in transition. Not getting caught up in the chaos, mainly with Killyan Toure, is a big key in this game.
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3. Rebounding
Kentucky did a good job on the glass against Santa Clara. They’ll need another valiant effort against a Cyclones team that won the rebound battle 43-29 against Tennessee State. Rebounding missed shots against the Cyclones is paramount, especially with how efficient they are offensively.
4. Weather the storm (some might say the Cyclone)
Iowa State is going to get their points and baskets. The key is not letting those turn into big runs.
Kentucky is going to miss shots on Sunday. What cannot happen is lengthy scoring droughts.
If Kentucky keeps this game close, they can win it in the closing minutes, as we saw on Friday.
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Score Prediction: Cyclones 85, Wildcats 78
I really hope I’m wrong, and I think I could be. Iowa State is really good, so solid, so experienced, and so battle-tested. But Kentucky can absolutely win this game. This could be a phenomenal game on Sunday in St. Louis.
For what it’s worth, Kentucky played Sunday at 2:45 on CBS in St. Louis in 2014 when they knocked out No. 1 seed and undefeated Wichita State— in the Midwest Region, no less. Sunday in St. Louis, the Cats will play at 2:45 on CBS. In March, anything can happen.
