Predicting upsets in March Madness 2026

Last year may have been the chalkiest NCAA March Madness Tournament on record. No teams seeded 1-4 lost in the first round. Only two 5-seeds and one 6-seed bit the dust in the round of 64. It was a tournament that was distinctly devoid of upsets and Cinderellas. This year, I think the bracket will play out much differently. There are enough characteristics among the underdogs (and the overdogs) that make me think there’s a potential for a bunch of upsets. Here are my favorites.

MORE: Predicting the winner of March Madness 2026

13 Hofstra over 4 Alabama

Dec 13, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; Hofstra Pride guard Preston Edmead (1) dribbles against the Syracuse Orange in the first half at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

There’s a little bit of uncertainty surrounding the Crimson Tide at the moment, as starting guard Aden Holloway is going to be away from the team indefinitely. This is going to put a lot on the plate of Labaron Philon against Hofstra’s drop coverage defense, and Hofstra has a pair of killer guards in their own right with Cruz Davis and Preston Edmead.

13 Troy over 4 Nebraska

I’ve been on the record for saying that Nebraska is ripe to be upset – they are overly reliant on the 3-point shot offensively, not an overly big or elite rebounding team, and are coming in with mediocre form. On the other side, Troy has one of the nation’s most unique players in point forward Victor Valdes, and they’ve actually beaten two top-65 opponents in San Diego State and Akron.

12 Akron over 5 Texas Tech

This is all about the injury to JT Toppin – without him, Texas Tech lacks size and interior scoring, which would make them really hard to be upset by a lesser opponent if he were active. As it stands, they are overly reliant on the perimeter shotmaking from Christian Anderson and Donovan Atwell, and that’s a dangerous place to be, as one cold shooting night could spell doom – especially against as offensively potent as Akron.

Texas/NC State winner over 6 BYU

Mar 10, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) slaps hands with BYU Cougars guard Robert Wright III (1) after a play during the second half against the Kansas State Wildcats at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images

I like both Texas and NC State to beat BYU, pending the result of that First Four game. Without injured Richie Saunders, BYU is overly reliant on scoring from AJ Dybantsa and Rob Wright. Both teams will have a plan to defend this – Texas has a bevy of elite perimeter defenders that they can throw at these two to try to prevent them from getting in rhythm. NC State is going to pressure the basketball and force extra passes. On the other side of the ball, I fail to see anyone on BYU’s roster who can defend Texas’ Matas Vokietaitis or NC State’s Quadir Copeland.

11 South Florida over 6 Louisville

Yes, I’m picking on another overdog with health issues – we simply don’t know the status of Louisville’s Mikel Brown Jr heading into this game. With or without Brown, I think this is a nightmare matchup for the Cardinals. South Florida relentlessly crashes the offensive glass, which is a distinct weakness of Louisville’s. South Florida will also jack up a ton of 3-pointers, led by Wes Enis and Joseph Pinion, which is something that Louisville will also try to do. This game will come down to who hits more 3s, and I think South Florida’s advantage on the glass will give them a marginally higher amount of attempts.