There’s no JuJu Watkins, but there’s also no shortage of storylines heading into the women’s Final Four this weekend in Tampa, Fla.
No. 1 overall seed UCLA has reached this stage for the very first time in program history. Vic Schaefer broke through after three Elite Eights at Texas to take the Longhorns to the Final Four for the first time in his five-year tenure. South Carolina is attempting to win back-to-back titles and its third in four years under Dawn Staley. And Connecticut — the plucky underdog of a No. 2 seed alongside three No. 1 seeds — is hoping to send Paige Bueckers out in style, with a national championship.
We’ve got an all-SEC showdown to tip things off on Friday evening, followed by UCLA-UConn as the nightcap. The winners will play for a national title on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET. Here’s how the national semifinal games will be decided:
The keys to South Carolina-Texas:
Now that the Longhorns are members of the Southeastern Conference, these two programs clash more often than they used to. They played each other twice in the regular season — splitting the series, with each team winning at home — and then again in the SEC championship game, won by South Carolina, 64-45. Texas’ four-point win over South Carolina in February snapped the Gamecocks’ 57-game SEC regular-season winning streak and announced the Longhorns as legitimate national title contenders, if they weren’t already.
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Texas is led by its two superstars, Rori Harmon (who missed most of last season with a torn ACL) and Madison Booker, the SEC’s Player of the Year this season. They’ll be key to a Longhorn victory in what will undoubtedly be the biggest game of both players’ careers. Booker put up a double-double in the win over the Gamecocks in Austin, while Harmon hit two late free throws and grabbed the final rebound off a South Carolina miss to secure the win. The sneaky MVP of that game was Texas backup center Kyla Oldacre, who scored eight of her 13 points in the fourth quarter to help the Longhorns to victory. To beat the gold standard of the sport, the Longhorns will need production from their biggest stars and support from the bench. In short, they need to score. They’ve only broken the 60-point threshold once in three meetings vs. South Carolina; that was the lone win.
For South Carolina to win, the formula is relatively straightforward: Do what the Gamecocks do best. They understand what it takes to win championships, even with a relatively young roster — because they won last year and twice in the past three years. Staley knows what buttons to press and her players know how to handle the pressure. These are two of the best defensive teams in the country, so points will be at a premium. And there’s no Kamilla Cardoso to take over a game, so South Carolina will need production from a bunch of its younger stars like MiLaysia Fulwiley and Joyce Edwards to go along with what we typically expect to see from veterans like Chloe Kitts, Bree Hall and Te-Hina Paopao.
Prediction: South Carolina 68, Texas 59
The keys to UCLA-UConn:
We’ve got to start by talking about Paige Bueckers, who does not seem ready for her college career to end. She’s had her ups and downs — injuries that derailed multiple seasons, a controversial foul call that helped knock UConn out in the national semifinal a year ago — and she’s trying to end her time at UConn like the rest of the program’s greats have, with a national championship trophy.
Heading into Tampa, Bueckers has had three consecutive games of 25-plus points, with her career-high 40 coming in the Sweet 16 vs. Oklahoma. She’s a woman on a mission, and that mission is to capture a title that has so far eluded her. She and freshman sensation Sarah Strong make a formidable one-two punch for the Huskies, as evidenced by the Elite Eight performance against No. 1 USC. But it’s not just Bueckers’ scoring that gets this team going — it’s her passing and her ability to block shots, too. This team is playing like the best team in the country at the exact right time.
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But the Huskies will have to beat Lauren Betts and UCLA before they get a chance to play for the title. And Betts’ size presents a unique problem for opponents on both ends of the floor. I would say she needs to avoid foul trouble to give the Bruins a shot to win this national semifinal, but we saw her teammates step up in her absence to beat LSU in the Elite Eight. So, they’ve been tested without her and are obviously extremely comfortable with their star center who averages nearly a 20-10 double-double central to the action. There’s a ton of experience around Betts, too, with junior guards Kiki Rice and Gabriela Jaquez both capable of taking over a game at any given point, and even Timea Gardiner, who was part of Oregon State’s deep March run a season ago. The Bruins will need to impose their will — and their size — to control this matchup against such great guards, and Betts will need to essentially be unguardable to keep pace in a matchup that will likely be significantly higher scoring than the first part of Friday night’s double-header. Otherwise, UConn will move one step closer to its first title since 2016.
Prediction: UConn 76, UCLA 71
