After its latest missed opportunity to help improve its NCAA Tournament resume, Xavier will stay on the road this week with a matchup against Providence Wednesday in Rhode Island.
It’s a quick turnaround for Xavier after falling to Villanova on Super Bowl Sunday. Xavier is wrapping up a seven-game streak that includes five road affairs.
Xavier has only managed one road victory in that span (at Marquette Jan. 18) and is now in must-win mode after failing to capitalize on a Quadrant 1 opportunity.
Multiple bracketologists have listed Xavier on the wrong side of the bubble. The Musketeers have done little to change that perspective and have few chances remaining to gain ground.
At this rate, Xavier can’t have any bad losses on its March Madness application. At 1-8 in Quadrant 1 contests, Xavier’s 8-0 combined mark in Q3/Q4 is its best asset. Xavier can improve to 6-2 in Q2 games with a win over the Friars.
3 keys to a Xavier Musketeers’ win over Providence Friars
1. Xavier’s defense must lead bounce-back effort
Over a pair of January wins over ranked teams (Marquette, UConn), Xavier was in the top 40 in KenPom in overall efficiency. They’ve dropped to No. 53.
Over its last three games, Xavier has allowed Creighton, Georgetown and Villanova to shoot a combined 50.8% from the field and 41.6% from three-point range. Xavier has allowed 40-plus second-half points in each contest.
“Some of it is execution and us detailing a number of things to get better at,” Sean Miller said of the recent defensive setback. “Some of it is that it has to come from within yourself. You have to play at a very high level of intensity. There are certain players that can do that easier. There are certain players that struggle with that.”
Creighton and Villanova collectively hit 23 triples to deny Xavier a chance at a road victory. It’ll be up to Xavier’s defense to fix the perimeter “leak in the roof” that plagued the team in November.
Providence scores 39.3% of its points from beyond the arc, which is the 18th-highest rate in the country. The Friars connect at a 36% clip from deep and attempt 26.1 triples per night (fourth in the Big East).
2. Can Xavier win the turnover battle?
On paper, Xavier’s offense looked efficient in the first half of Sunday’s loss to Villanova by shooting over 50% from the field. However, the Musketeers left plenty of opportunities on the board by turning it over nine times in 20 minutes.
In Big East play, Xavier is only minus-1 in the turnover department but are minus-4 over the last three games. Winning the turnover battle would go a long way for Xavier win in Rhode Island.
Providence is No. 349 in turnover percentage and No. 336 in steal percentage. Offensively, the Friars have had issues with ball security, ranking No. 266 in turnover percentage. Xavier needs to apply pressure, generate steals and use them to feed into the fast break against a slower-paced Providence squad.
3. Which team breaks through during crunch time?
Xavier has been through late-game agony this season, but Providence has also suffered its share of gut-wrenching defeats. On Saturday, Providence fell to Butler, 82-81. It was the Friars’ eighth loss this season by six points or less. Providence has lost five conference games by one possession.
In a projected tight game (KenPom gives Xavier a 74-73 win), one of these teams will make the necessary plays in the final minutes to prevail. It has to be Xavier.
Xavier Musketeers vs. Providence Friars
Tip: Wednesday, 8 p.m., Amica Mutual Pavilion (14,000)
TV/Radio: Peacock/700 WLW
Ratings: Xavier is No. 54 in KenPom and Providence is No. 83. Xavier is No. 55 in the NCAA NET Rankings and Providence is No. 86.
History: Xavier leads the all-time series, 14-12.
Providence Friars scouting report
Record: 11-13 (5-8 Big East)
Head coach: Kim English (32-27 at Providence, second season)
Offense: 71.9 ppg
Defense: 70.2 ppg
Overview: After Bryce Hopkins’ return lasted just three games, Providence is now without its top three scorers from last season, including a pair of all-Big East selections (Devin Carter, Josh Oduro).
That’s made life difficult in the second year of the Kim English era after narrowly missing the NCAA Tournament last season. Providence has beaten just one team (Georgetown) with a winning record since taking out BYU Dec. 3.
Both Xavier (Lassina Traore) and Providence (Hopkins) have gone through season-ending injuries in the frontcourt. These are two of the smallest lineups in the Big East with Xavier ranked No. 183 in average height and Providence ranked No. 171.
Projected starting lineup
(Pos., Height, Stats)
Jayden Pierre (G, 6’2″, 12.8 ppg)
Bensley Joseph (G, 6’2″, 12.3 ppg)
Corey Floyd Jr. (G, 6’4″, 9.4 ppg)
Rich Barron (F, 6’5″, 5.1 ppg)
Oswin Erhunmwunse (F, 6’10”, 5.7 ppg)
Xavier Musketeers scouting report
Record: 14-10 (6-7 Big East)
Head coach: Sean Miller (177-85 at Xavier, eighth season)
Offense: 76.5 ppg
Defense: 70.5 ppg
Projected starters
(Pos., Height, Stats)
Dayvion McKnight (G, 6’0″, 9.9 ppg)
Ryan Conwell (G, 6’4″, 15.5 ppg)
Marcus Foster (G, 6’5″, 8.4 ppg)
Dailyn Swain (G/F, 6’8″, 10 ppg)
Zach Freemantle (F, 6’9″, 16.6 ppg)
Players to watch
Providence junior guard Jayden Pierre is now the leading scorer at 12.8 points per game. He was a complementary piece last season who did at a lot for the Friars but has not taken on more of an offensive role. He had 17 points, 5 assists, 3 rebounds and 3 steals in a win at Cintas Center last season.
Can Dante Maddox do this consistently? The Toledo transfer was Xavier’s best player (24 points on 7-of-10 shooting) against Villanova. Maddox has now averaged 12.2 points over the last four games.
Xavier will look to get a healthy Dailyn Swain a regular workload against Providence. The emerging sophomore, who had scored in double figures in nine of the last 11 games, played just 15 minutes against Villanova due to a head cold. He finished with 4 points and 5 rebounds.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Big East basketball: Xavier facing must-win matchup vs. Providence
