Preview: America East Men’s Basketball

My name is Tanner McGrath, and I’m the new America East beat writer for Mid-Major Madness.

I’ve been covering the league for about five years, mainly for The Action Network. However, given that this site is the premier one for mid-major hoops coverage, I’ve decided to take my talents to these virtual pages for the upcoming season.

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I grew up in Vermont, and I grew up on Catamount basketball. As I followed the league, I became an America East fanatic, falling in love with every team that comes through this stupid little low-major league.

As I established myself in the sports writing world, I’ve managed to convince some editors to let me cover the league as in-depth as possible.

So, as you can imagine, these conference preview pieces are the most important things I write all year. I pour my heart and soul into these.

I interviewed seven of the league’s nine head coaches this year to gain invaluable insight into this relatively unknown mid-major conference. Hopefully, after reading this, you’ll know more about it, too.

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Before going team-by-team, let’s set the stage.

AmEast Bird’s Eye View

Here are my preseason mathematical projections for the America East.

Vermont is the class of the league, while NJIT and New Hampshire are clearly in the basement.

In between, the rest of the league is a crapshoot. I don’t really trust my numbers for the teams ranked two through seven. Anyone could finish anywhere in that tier, and many of the squads are incredibly high-variance unknowns with totally revamped rosters.

As such, I decided to input a human element. I play in an America East-only fantasy basketball league (I know, nuts!). I polled the guys to see what the public perception is — for reference, there are two Vermont fans (myself included), three Bryant fans, two UMass Lowell fans, three Maine fans, and two UMBC fans.

As you can see, aside from a the top one and bottom two teams, the middle tier is wildly unpredictable.

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Regardless, you can catch my predictions for the final standings at the end of the piece, alongside preseason picks for all the major awards and All-Conference teams.

Without further ado, let’s dive in to my America East mega-preview.

(FYI: If you just need a quick refresher on the league, I put a TLDR section at the end of each team section.)

Tier 1: Vermont

Vermont Catamounts

Vermont ceded the throne last year for a few reasons.

Shamir Bogues, Sam Alamutu, and Ileri Ayo-Faleye never developed consistent 3-point shots. Ayo-Faleye never became a consistent interior back-to-the-basket scorer, and Shy Odom — the other interior scoring option — never saw the court due to injuries. And the early season-ending of TJ Long was devastating.

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Eventually, Vermont was attempting to run a five-out motion offense without any rim pressure and with only one guy who could make a jumper.

TJ Hurley played admirably, working his way onto the First-Team All-Conference list, and the defense was elite behind Bogues and Ayo-Faleye — two of the best defenders to ever play in Burlington.

But the offense shriveled behind brutal spacing and relatively lousy shot-making. The Catamounts finished sixth in the conference in effective field goal percentage (51%) and fourth in Offensive Efficiency (108.5). They ranked fifth in the conference in ShotQuality’s Spacing metric, fifth in Shot Selection, and fourth in Shot Making — all marks unbecoming of a John Becker-led offense.

I was impressed with how Becker and company adjusted, fighting through nagging injuries toward a 10-game win streak late in the season. The most significant adjustment came from a change in defensive scheme. Vermont tried to apply more pressure and force turnovers to gain easier transition buckets early in the season, but it soon realized that its conservative man-to-man was far more effective.

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But basketball is about putting the ball in the basket, and with Bogues sidelined in the conference tournament semifinal, the Cats ended their season by scoring a measly 42 points in a 15-point home loss to Maine.

Credit to Becker and his staff. They decided enough was enough and pulled in a haul of a transfer portal class — the conference’s second-best, per Bart Torvik.

The additions are bountiful. Ben Johnson (Bellarmine) and Chris Kuzemka (Loyola Maryland) are proven shot-makers. Gus Yalden (Seton Hall) could develop into the back-to-the-basket scorer who could drag defenses down and open up the perimeter. David Simon (San Diego) is a fascinating stretch forward, and Ben Michaels (Buffalo) is a more traditional, raw-and-athletic big man. Jackson Skipper (Oral Roberts) and Trey Woodyard (New Hampshire) are two high-IQ, versatile wings who can score or distribute from all three levels.

But before we dive into it all, let’s talk about the most significant “addition” of all.

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Long’s return should do wonders for the offense. It was only 18 months ago that he hit a miraculous 3 to keep Vermont’s March Madness hopes alive in the first round of the AmEast tournament.

But that’s what Long does. He hits shots. He averaged 12 points per game by shooting 35% from deep on over six attempts per game two seasons ago. His gravity and spacing were noticeably missing from last year’s team, and he’s a solid wing defender with good length.

As a Vermont fan, I’m thrilled to have the TJs back together. With Long sidelined, Hurley transformed into a bona fide America East superstar.

It’s tough to understate how good Hurley was last season. He did everything Vermont asked of him as a lead scoring option, dropping over 16 points per game on 43/ 39/89 percent shooting splits. He’s always been a sniper, but his development as a rim attacker (.99 PPP, 72nd percentile), mid-range bucket-getter (.93 PPP, 75th percentile), and dribble-drive ball-screen scorer (1.04 PPP, 92nd percentile) made him indispensable for last year’s offensively starved squad.

The spacing was brutal, and the situation was challenging, but Hurley managed to wriggle to his spots and score night in and night out. The experience he gained from last year’s season is massive, and I expect him to become an uber-efficient, Conference Player of the Year-caliber player in this year’s offense. He’s one of two AmEast players projected to score over 15 PPG with an Offensive Rating above 110, alongside Josh Odunowo, and EvanMiya projects him as the conference’s third-most valuable player by BPR (+0.98).

“He got really good at getting to the elbows and using his shoulder to create space and make shots at the end of shot clocks,” Becker said to Mid-Major Madness. “But I expect that he won’t have to make as many tough shots this season.”

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Hurley could be a better passer and playmaker. But I hope that — alongside not making as many tough shots — he won’t have to play on-ball as much.

Let’s talk about why.

Miya projects incoming guard Lucas Mari with the highest BPR in the conference (+1.5). The Spanish professional transfer is Vermont’s most intriguing transfer ever. He’s the prototypical Becker guard because he’s enormous, standing 6-foot-6 with great length, which makes him an excellent rebounder. I’m not in love with him as a defender, but he’s fairly laterally mobile and should be solid on close-outs, which is vital in Becker’s base man-to-man defense.

While he has a smooth pull-up game and can score in a variety of ways, he projects best as an on-ball distributor.

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Mari’s passing vision is elite. He controls the offense in a calm, cool, collected manner, and he’s tall enough to see over the defense. All of these things are great for a five-out motion offense. But I adore how he operates in ball screens, as he has some zip on cross-court and inside-out passes that make me excited about his ability to spray the ball around to Vermont’s bevvy of off-ball shooting threats.

Also, his athleticism pops. He could be a mismatch nightmare in the America East.

Unfortunately, there are several roadblocks to Mari being an instant contributor. He didn’t arrive on campus until the fall semester, and the coaching staff is working through a language barrier. It’s a catch-up game.

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Also, where does he fit within this roster?

“His passing is elite; there are some Robin Duncan comparisons that can be made with his size and passing ability,” Becker said. “I’m still trying to figure out how to deploy and use him. Is he a point guard? We’ve moved him around and basically played him one through four, trying to figure out what his best position is.”

If he’s not the point guard, I’d expect returning sophomore Sean Blake to get plenty of opportunities to run the offense.

Blake has his warts. His turnover rate was sky-high as a freshman (26%), and he’s a non-shooter. But he brings pop and a quick first step as a ball-screen operator and distributor. Also, he held his own on the defensive end (+0.3 DRAPM, 59th percentile), especially in ball-screen coverage (.59 PPP allowed, 85th percentile). I liked the sets he ran with fellow Frosh Noah Barnett and can imagine the duo improving immensely in Year 2.

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Regarding the other backcourt pieces, I expect Johnson and Kuzemka to slide in as effective and needed off-ball shooters. Guys like this are always appreciated in Becker’s offense.

Kuzemka is a pure floor-spacing bench piece. He’s shot 38% from deep on 169 career attempts across his past four seasons, mostly catch-and-shoot.

Johnson will play more. He had a down year last season (30% from 3), but he was an efficient catch-and-shoot option in his first two seasons with Bellarmine (1.08 catch-and-shoot PPP in 2024, 66th percentile) — and he’s got deep range. The Knights run a unique motion offense that emphasizes passing and cutting rather than on-ball dribbling, so we’ll have to keep tabs on how he develops within the Becker offense.

The lineup combinations for Vermont this year are endless, and arguably the biggest reason why is the addition of Woodyard and the return of Skipper.

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Skipper returns to Burlington after a year in Tulsa, hopefully with more experience. He’s a massive guard/wing tweener at 6-foot-7 with bounce, and has been a plus-shooter. But he’s played so little over the past two seasons that I’m unsure what his strengths and weaknesses are.

I am the world’s biggest Trey Woodyard defender. He’s a spectacular glue guy — a low-usage wing who doesn’t need the ball to score efficiently at all three levels while moving the ball well and holding his own on the defensive end. I might even be underrating his passing skills, given EvanMiya projects him with the third-highest Playmaking score in the conference (6.5).

“Woodyard is a connector,” Becker said. “He understands who he’s playing with and who needs to get the ball. He’s really smart and really selfless.”

A big thing to note is that — per Becker and another source inside the program — Skipper and Woodyard have played a ton of point guard in the summer and fall. Becker calls Woodyard, Skipper, and Mari his “three big guards.”

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“Those are three high-IQ guys with a lot of versatility,” Becker said. “They can move from point guard to the four and everything in between pretty seamlessly.”

That speaks mainly to the depth and lineup versatility the Catamounts have, which extends into the frontcourt, which will be populated by some combination of Yalden, Michaels, Barnett, and Simon.

Among that quartet, Yalden has the highest upside.

Since Ryan Davis graduated, Becker has been hunting for a low-post back-to-the-basket scorer whom he can rely on when the five-out motion isn’t making perimeter shots. Davis and Anthony Lamb collapsed defenses and pulled opponents away from the 3-point line, opening up those jumpers that the Cats rely upon.

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Yalden has a high-major pedigree (former four-star prospect), but he never panned out at Wisconsin or Seton Hall. But on film, he’s a massive body with a variety of low-post moves who could thrive at the low-major level.

“He’s been super productive and has provided back-to-the-basket scoring,” Becker said about Yalden’s performance in practice. “He’s become a hub to play through.”

Simon is Yalden’s insurance policy. He’s thin for a center, but he’s a massive, fluid athlete with length. He’ll block some shots and can stretch the floor with a decent 3-point shot — he canned 34% of his 41 catch-and-shoot triples last season.

Michales is raw, but he’s an athletic defender who could thrive on the offensive glass. At the minimum, he has a very high upside.

I was really impressed with Barnett’s rookie season. He graded out well as a defender (1.5 DRAPM, fourth in the conference) and was excellent as a poster (1.02 PPP, 84th percentile), cutter (1.32 PPP, 64th percentile), and roller (1.34 PPP, 71st percentile). I was really impressed with some of the pick-and-roll sets that he and Blake ran last year.

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Closing Catamount Thoughts

I can’t help but think the defense will regress without Bogues and Ayo-Faleye bookending the lineup. They were two of the best defenders in program history.

Meanwhile, I don’t love the potential replacements. In the frontcourt, Yalden is rather slow-footed laterally, while Simon is skinny and can get pushed around. There’s plenty of size in the backcourt, but none of them are close to Bogues in terms of raw defensive ability — the drop-off at the points of attack could be pretty big if the Cats rely on Blake at the one.

Ultimately, Vermont will likely drop into its base man-to-man defense and rely on positional size to switch ball-screens, and leverage its big guards to contest catch-and-shoot opportunities. They aren’t as athletic as they were in the past, so they’ll have to be more disciplined and be better at defending as a group.

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“Our positional size this year is going to be much better,” Becker says. “We’ll play our signature defense, and we might be able to switch more in ball screens and handoffs to be better in coverage.”

If there’s anywhere you could’ve nit-picked Vermont’s defense over the past two seasons, it was the Catamounts’ sometimes-sketchy ball-screen coverage. But they often had enough individual talent to cover that up.

Regardless, I expect the offensive improvements to out-gain the defensive lags.

Offense is going to come so much easier for the Cats this season. They have some legit back-to-the-basket post options, especially if Yalden pans out at this level, which means they can run more four-around-one offense rather than five out, creating more offense by driving the ball into the post and working inside-out.

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“Because I feel good about some of our post options, we’ve been playing more four-around-one as opposed to five-out, which we have been the past few years because of the lack of post-up options besides our guards,” Becker says. “That’s been interesting because the spacing is a bit different in that alignment, and we’re trying to strike a balance between spacing and taking advantage of our bigs.”

Over the past two seasons, Becker has relied far too much on Bogues and Dylan Penn as driving post-up guards for easy buckets. This year, that shouldn’t be the case.

At the same time, there are so many more shot makers than last year. Hurley and Long are dynamite on the wing. Skipper and Woodyard are capable ball-movers and shot makers up and down the lineup. Johnson and Kuzemka are reliable off-ball shooting guards and floor spacers, and they’ll likely be depth pieces. After getting exposed for having only one shooter, Becker wanted to surround Hurley with plenty of offensive depth, and he’s done just that.

With legit interior options and plenty of perimeter weapons, the spacing should be ideal for Becker’s motion offense. Vermont should look more like it has in the past, with plenty of catch-and-shoot triples and wide-open cutting lanes.

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The only big question is who plays where. Aside from Long and Hurley, who should be mainstays on the wing, there are a million different lineup combinations.

The big question in the backcourt is who handles point guard duties between Mari and Blake. I imagine it’ll be Blake early in the year, but eventually Mari’s talent and length will shine through once he adjusts to the program. However, Becker says he’s toying with Mari, Woodyard, and Skipper at every position one through four — I would trust a lineup with Woodyard at point.

Per a source within the program, there’s a big battle for frontcourt minutes between the Yalden-Simon-Michaels-Barnett quartet. The source also guesses that the opening-night starting five will likely be Blake, Hurley, Long, Michaels, and Yalden. I’m partial toward keeping Yalden at the five while slotting Woodyard in as a small-ball four, but I’m not the head coach at the University of Vermont.

“I can play any combination of those guys because they all bring a different skill set,” Becker said. “We have four true frontcourt guys and then three more that can play small-ball four. There are a lot of exciting lineup combinations.”

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In the end, these are all good problems for Becker to have. The roster has a ton of talent and depth. Meanwhile, as we’ll discuss shortly, the rest of the league is down — Bryant and Lowell lost their entire rosters, while Maine lost their prolific backcourt.

TLDR: Vermont might regress on defense, but the offense will be immensely improved with more traditional interior scoring options and a bevy of shot makers. While Vermont arguably improved over the off-season, the rest of the league is down. I project the Catamounts as the league’s best team by a vast margin (more than five points better than the second-best team).

How I See The Roster:

• On-Ball Guards: Sean Blake, Lucas Mari

• Off-Ball Guards: TJ Hurley, TJ Long, Ben Johnson, Chris Kuzemka

• On-Ball Wings: Trey Woodyard, Jackson Skipper

• Frontcourt: Gus Yalden, Ben Michaels, Noah Barnett, David Simon

Potential Starting Five:

• Ben Michaels / Trey Woodyard

• Sixth Man: Lucas Mari / Sean Blake, Trey Woodyard / Ben Michaels

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Tier 2: The Sleepers

UMBC Retrievers

UMBC’s 2024-25 season came down to one simple thing: Size.

The Retrievers were miniature last season. Louie Jordan was the tallest player on the roster at 6-foot-9, and he primarily played small-ball stretch five when they weren’t playing 6-foot-6 Josh Odunowo down there.

Defensively, they started the season by playing aggressively and extended on the perimeter, attempting to Moneyball that end of the court by running guys off the 3-point line and turning turnovers into easy buckets.

But they were getting ripped apart at the rim, so they eventually capitulated, packing it in while playing a ton of zone in conference play. That didn’t work either, as they continued to get ripped apart at the rim — often, opposing teams would just post them up every time down the court (.96 PPP allowed, 13th percentile).

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UMBC also couldn’t rebound a single missed shot on either end of the court.

Ultimately, the story of the 2024-25 Retrievers can be summed up in one still frame:

They finished dead last in the conference in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates. They finished dead last in the conference in paint points per game allowed, over 40. They finished dead last in the conference in second-chance points per game allowed, nearly 13. They finished dead last in the conference in rebounding differential, -127 in conference play and -249 overall (eighth-worst nationally). As such, they finished dead last in the conference in FGA differential, -96 in conference play. Opponents shot over 50% in the paint.

UMBC was awesome last year. The Retrievers ran a super fun four-around-one motion offense. Bryce Johnson transformed into one of the conference’s best on-ball guards. Marcus Banks was an elite shot-maker. They destroyed opponents in transition and in the rim-attack-and-kick game.

But UMBC went 5-11 in conference play because the Retrievers were too small. They were killed at the rim, on the boards, and in the shot-volume battle.

“We were one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country,” head coach Jim Ferry said to Mid-Major Madness. “We shot the hell out of the ball, and we didn’t turn it over.”

“But we couldn’t finish possessions defensively. Where we really got hurt was rebounding on both ends because of our lack of size and depth,” he added.

Credit to Ferry and his staff, as they recognized the problem and spent the entire offseason trying to fix it.

“We addressed that going into the offseason,” Ferry said. “We got significantly bigger and significantly longer, and we have great length at the wing positions.”

Among the newcomers, transfers Caden Diggs (Old Dominion) and Paul Greene (D-II Southern New Hampshire) stand 6-foot-7 and 6-foot-6. Throw in returners Daylon Dickerson (6-foot-6) and Tim Eze (6-foot-7), and there’s good size on the wing. Transfer guard DJ Armstrong Jr. (D-II Texas Permian Basin) stands 6-foot-4 and gives them some length and shooting in the backcourt. Incoming big man Jose Roberto Tanchyn (D2 Palm Beach Atlantic) stands 6-foot-10, giving the team a legit big man who can play alongside 6-foot-8 freshman Riley Jacobs and Odunowo.

If anything, the Retrievers are no longer microscopic.

But beyond physical makeup, there’s a lot to love about the 2025-26 Retrievers.

And that all starts with Odunowo.

The 6-foot-6 small-ball power forward solidified himself as one of the league’s most efficient offensive players, as he scored nearly 12 PPG — including over eight paint PPG — while shooting almost 60% from the field. He’s a spectacular post-up (1.03 PPP, 80th percentile on high volume) and roll-man (1.40 PPP, 93rd percentile on lower volume) scorer who can draw fouls like crazy.

However, his most important attributes are his vision and willingness to pass. He averaged over two assists per game last year at a 14% rate. He hit cutters left and right (nearly nine cut passes per game, 90th percentile) and was excellent in the post-and-kick game (1.09 PPP, 79th percentile). The Retrievers played through Odunowo as an interior hub and ran four-out on the perimeter — and the elite spacing allowed him to eat underneath.

Defensively, Odunowo racked up the steals (1.1 per game) and blocks (0.9 per game), but he wasn’t a super strong rebounder (12% defensive rebounding rate, 20th percentile) or overall defender (-0.7 DRAPM). However, that could’ve been the system’s fault, given he was forced to act as the interior anchor defender despite his diminutive stature.

Regardless, Odunowo is an elite offensive player, a surefire First-Team All-Conference pick, and my clubhouse leader for Conference Player of the Year. He’s projected to lead the conference in scoring this season (15.5 PPG) behind a 115 Offensive Rating — he’ll be the ultra-efficient post option in a super up-tempo offense with solid spacing, so he’ll be getting buckets.

The other key returning player is Ace Valentine, the projected point guard.

It’s a massive season for Ace. Guards are uber-important in Ferry’s up-tempo system — they have to play fast while making quick and accurate decisions — and Valentine is the purest point guard option on the team. He’s consistently sported a 20% assist rate, is solid in the rim-attack-and-kick game (1.10 PPP, 65th percentile; super important in Ferry’s offense), in transition (1.23 PPP, 77th percentile; critical in Ferry’s offense), and as a ball-screen operator (1.18 PPP, 75th percentile; less important in Ferry’s offense).

“His role is to be the calming factor,” Ferry says. “The guard that gets everybody involved while being physical and playing with pace.”

He has to cut down on the turnovers (nearly two per game last year at a 19% rate) and is a liability on defense (.95 ball-screen PPP allowed, 18th percentile). Still, he’ll be an essential contributor as an everyday lead guard.

Also in the backcourt, Old Dominion transfer Devin Ceaser is the big-name newcomer who should play alongside Valentine. He’s a bucket-getting combo guard who should shoulder a huge scoring load in the wake of Johnson and Banks’ departures.

His shot selection, shooting stroke, efficiency and playmaking ability are big question marks — not to mention he’s a tiny guard who doesn’t hold up well defending on the perimeter (1.23 ball-screen PPP allowed, third percentile). But more importantly, he does two things that every Ferry guard needs to do well: he gets out in transition and ruthlessly attacks the paint in the half-court. He’s an aggressive up-tempo off-the-dribble guard, which is what the Retrievers are built on.

“We brought him here to be a dynamic scorer,” Ferry said. “He’s an immensely talented basketball player. He can score at all three levels and handle the rock.”

The Retrievers did an excellent job scouting and recruiting D-II talent in the offseason — a strategy that could pay off in the Name, Image, Likeness and portal era (I’m thinking of Ben McCollum at Drake). I’m most intrigued by Greene as a junkyard-dog wing, Armstrong as an off-ball guard, Cougar Downing as an off-ball guard, and Jah’likai King as a combo guard.

I’m keeping a close eye on King as a significant backcourt contributor. The New Haven transfer is a quick-twitch guard that loves to attack the paint and score in the open court — again, two critical things in the Ferry offense. He led New Haven in points (15.8 PPG), rebounds (4.5 RPG), and assists (3.4 APG) last season, albeit at the Division-II level.

“He’s got dynamic speed,” Ferry said. “I haven’t had a quick-twitch, fast, gifted point guard like this probably since I’ve been here.”

Armstrong — the son of former Orlando Magic guard Darrell Armstrong — can fill it up from deep, shooting nearly 37% on over seven attempts per game last season (including 38% on catch-and-shoot opportunities).

Downing is a sharpshooter from Division-II Eastern New Mexico who shot 44% from deep on over seven attempts per game last season (including a whopping 48% on catch-and-shoot opportunities). He played for Little Rock two years ago, but couldn’t get on the court later in the season after slumping for the first half. Hopefully, he bounces back at the D-I level this year.

I should write a tad more about the wing corps. I was sad to hear that returner Regimantas Ciunys tore his ACL over the summer and will likely miss the season. While he only played 17 minutes per game last year, he was the team’s second-best defender by DBPR (-0.9) and could provide this team with much-needed defensive versatility as a 6-foot-6 wing.

Instead, one of Diggs, Greene, Dickerson, or Eze needs to step into a potentially substantial role. They all have size, versatility, and upside, but all are also unproven at the D-I level. It’s a pretty high-variance group of guys who could elevate UMBC’s defense or be a massive liability on both ends.

Among that group, I’m partial toward giving Greene the most minutes. The 6-foot-6 wing/forward tweener is a walking double-double. He ranked fourth nationally at the D-II level in rebounds per game last season (12.1), second in defensive rebounds per game (nine), and first in defensive rebounding rate (33%). He posted a 2.5 DRAPM (96th percentile) behind 2.5 steals per game at a 3.5% rate.

Greene averaged nearly 14 points per game, but he was relatively inefficient on high usage (50% from 2, 32% from 3, 11 FGA per game). However, he moved the ball well (14% assist rate), which means he could be playable on the offensive end. UMBC doesn’t need points. It needs stops and rebounds; it seems like Greene could offer plenty of those.

“Greene is going to be a huge addition for us,” Ferry said. “He’s a rebounding machine and a fifty-fifty ball machine in practice every day.”

Also in the frontcourt, I expect Jacobs to play a role immediately as a freshman. He’s pretty mobile for 6-foot-8, and he brings some solid shot-blocking and rim-protection skills — two things that the Retrievers desperately need. They might not have to sacrifice pace with him at the four or five.

“He can win every sprint,” Ferry says. “He’s so well coached coming out of high school with his ability to bat shots around the rim and his overall feel.”

Remaining Retriever Thoughts

UMBC’s offense should be elite. I project it as the league’s second-best offense (101.7 AdjOE), trailing only Vermont (102.7), and believe that’s a relatively stable assessment.

Ferry-led offenses always play fast, share the ball, shoot, and score.

With Valentine, King, Ceaser, Armstrong, and Downing surrounding Odunowo as the ever-consistent go-to guy, Ferry has the personnel to do just that.

Of course, it might look a little different this year.

“We’re going to be a little bit different offensively, just in the makeup,” Ferry said. “We were very three-guard, four-guard oriented last year because that’s the way our roster was built. This year, we can play with size, but not necessarily play slow.”

I expect more of the offense to run through the frontcourt, considering how much backcourt production the Retrievers lost in the offseason. I don’t know exactly how that will look, but perhaps more of the offense runs through Odunowo as a high-post trigger man. That would still allow Ferry to run his free-flowing two-, three-, or four-guard motion offense (lots of off-ball screens and cutters) but rely less on backcourt ball-handlers in the rim-attack-and-kick game. Also, it might take some pressure off Ace as a first-year starting point guard.

“There might not be as many 3-point shots taken, but I think we’ll be a better interior scoring team,” Ferry said. “We’re going to get fouled a lot more and will be a significantly better offensive rebounding team.”

“What’s really nice is that all of our forwards are exceptional passers. We can facilitate offense through our forwards from Josh to Paul to Riley to Jose,” he added.

The most critical newcomer I haven’t talked about yet is Jose, and for good reason: I think he’s the key to UMBC hitting its ceiling this year.

Analyzing UMBC is a relatively simple endeavor. The Retrievers are going to score, but can they defend and rebound?

There’s no doubt they’re far bigger and more versatile defensively on the wing, even if they aren’t in the backcourt. That’s an improvement alone. There’s an argument to be made that the Eze, Dickerson, Diggs, and Greene will decide the team’s fate, given the high-variance nature of that unit and what versatile athletic wings could do for the defense.

But even if one of (or multiple of) those guys steps up as a key two-way contributor, UMBC is still relatively small in the frontcourt, perhaps running 6-foot-7 at the five.

The Retrievers can’t be too small again.

That’s why Coach Ferry should give Tanchyn every opportunity to emerge as the starting center who plays big-time minutes.

He’s 6-foot-10! He gives them legit size. He was a fantastic two-way rebounder at Palm Beach Atlantic, and he even blocked a few shots. No matter how you think he’ll translate to the AmEast, he’s an immediate interior defensive upgrade for UMBC because of length alone.

However, I also think he fits Ferry’s offense alright. He can step out and shoot it OK (31% from deep last season), he moves the ball pretty well (12% assist rate), and I’ve seen him take it off the bounce on film.

He’s also elite in transition (1.42 PPP, 95th percentile), meaning he should be able to run with the Retrievers. Palm Beach Atlantic averaged over 12 fast-break points per game last year — the Sailfish weren’t a slow-paced, dump-it-down-to-the-big-and-post-up type of team.

Imagine what Tanchyn could do for the rebounding, defensive, and size issues in the frontcourt — pair the offense with even one big man that can rim-deter and rebound, and the sky is the limit.

I don’t know if it’ll work out — and Ferry mentioned he’s been dealing with a health issue during the Summer that’s kept him off the court —  but he could be the anchor that breaks the glass ceiling for the 2026 Retrievers. A platoon of Jose and Jacobs at the five alongside Odunowo at the four is super enticing, and it’d also allow the Retrievers to play three guards (Valentine, Caesar, King) or two guards and just one wing (the positional unit with the most question marks).

When asked about whether Tanchyn can be the difference-maker at center, Ferry responded, “he’s certainly going to have the opportunity to be.”

Given the unknowns, I still project UMBC as the league’s second-worst defense (111.4 AdjDE). But there is room for loads of improvement if the Retreivers can find defensive playmakers on the wing and in the frontcourt.

Behind Vermont, the league is wide open, and the Retrievers’ offense gives them a very high floor. If Tanchyn and just one of the wings pans out on defense, UMBC could surge up the leaderboard and establish itself as the America East’s second-best team.

“To be quite honest, with all these new guys, I think we have a chance to be really good,” Ferry says. “But I think it’s going to be later because we have to figure each other out. Figure out the rotation, and which pieces play well together.”

TLDR: The Retrievers easily have the second-best offense in the conference, and Odunowo is my pick for AmEast POY. If Tanchyn and a longer wing corps can pan out on the defensive end, I expect UMBC to make huge strides and finish as the league’s second-best squad.

How I See The Roster:

• On-Ball Guards: Ace Valentine, Devin Ceaser, Jah’likai King

• Off-Ball Guards: DJ Armstrong, Cougar Downing

• Wings: Caden Diggs, Paul Greene, Daylon Dickerson, Tim Eze

• Power Forward: Josh Odunowo

• Bigs: Jose Roberto Tanchyn, Riley Jacobs

Potential Starting Five:

• Sixth Man: Jah’likai King

Binghamton Bearcats

I wrote in last year’s America East preseason preview that I was most worried about Binghamton’s point guard replacement. Symir Torrence was a machine in Levell Sanders’ cut-heavy offense, dotting downhill rim-runners night in and night out, nearly leading the nation in assists per game.

So, Sanders, how did you feel about your point guard play last season?

“We didn’t have one,” he said. “We didn’t have a point guard.”

The Bearcats tried out Jayden Lemond at that spot in November. But in nine starts, he finished with 25 assists and 21 turnovers. Among Division-I players who played at least 200 minutes last year, nobody had a higher turnover rate than Lemond’s 44% mark.

They ditched that plan, and Lemond barely saw the court for the rest of the season.

The Bearcats ran a ton of offense through Tymu Chenery, and he racked up over three assists per game. Combo guard Chris Walker tallied over two assists per game. But they’re both gone.

Returning wing Wes Peterson ended the season in the point guard role.

All three of those guys stepped up admirably, given the situation, but they were all playing out of position, and the decision-making issues showed. Chenery and Walker posted a 20% turnover rate, while Peterson posted a 25% turnover rate.

At the same time, Binghamton’s perimeter dribble defense was abhorrent (.87 PPP allowed, 13th percentile), so the Bearcats forced no turnovers.

At the end of the season, Binghamton finished last in the America East in offensive turnover rate, defensive turnover rate, offensive steal rate, and defensive steal rate. The Bearcats finished last in the conference in turnover differential by a mile (-133 overall, 78 in conference play).

So, Sanders spent the offseason trying to remedy the issue. He’s hoping to play more aggressively on both ends of the court, extending ball pressure, forcing a few more turnovers, and then pushing the pace the other way.

“We’re going to play a lot faster,” Sanders said. “We have an athletic team. We’re going to try and score more, score faster, and get the ball up the court while confusing the opponent’s transition defense.”

“And we have a point guard,” he added.

That would be Jeremiah Quigley, who comes to Binghamton after stops at Iona and George Mason.

Quigley wasn’t good enough to play at the A10 level, but he made the All-MAAC Rookie team two seasons ago by averaging 11 points and three assists per game, including 13 and four across his final 10 games.

He’s a tiny dribble guard who doesn’t shoot much. But he’s uber-quick, an excellent passer, and an elite decision maker who never turns the ball over (.95 ball-screen-plus-passes PPP, 71st percentile).

He could thrive in Sanders’ offense as a transition starter or a half-court cutter hitter. Also, he’s not an awful defender despite his size. He posted a 23% assist rate to a 13% turnover rate at Iona, and he was fantastic at getting to the line (41% free-throw rate).

He’s just what the Bearcats need, especially if the they plan on pushing the pace while continuing to run cut-heavy motion stuff. And, to be honest, I can’t think of a better pure point guard in the America East — or, at least, an established one.

“He’s really quick,” Sanders said. “And I’m looking forward to having him after we gave our opponents 142 more possessions than we had last year.”

The other significant portal addition is Demetrius Lilley from La Salle.

Lilley is massive at 6-foot-9, an absolutely dominant rebounder (six per game, 10% offensive rebounding rate, 24% defensive rebounding rate), and an above-average defender.

The concerns come on the offensive end. While he can stretch the floor and hit some triples, he’s a lousy finisher (47% at the rim, sixth percentile) and roll-man (.71 PPP, 12th percentile). He doesn’t care to get to the rim — he drew a minuscule 21% free-throw rate, which feels impossible for a center.

“He wants to be on the perimeter too much,” Sanders said. “But in our league, we need him on the inside. He’s had some issues with scoring, but I think it’s just because he has to slow down. In our league, there aren’t going to be many guys who can block his shot.”

Still, seven and five in the A-10 is no joke. That has to translate to the AmEast.

“In terms of importance, Lilley and Quigley are going to be 1 and 1-A for us this season,” Sanders said.

There are two primary reasons why.

First, Binghamton is almost always a rock-solid rebounding squad, and Lilley’s contributions should ensure that remains the case.

“I think he’s going to lead the country in rebounding,” Sanders said. “I think he’ll average 13 or 14 per game. He has a nose for the ball, he knows exactly where it’s going, and he’s really good with following the ball when it’s in the air.”

For what it’s worth, EvanMiya projects Lilley to lead the conference in rebounding rate (32%), while Torvik projects him to lead in RPG (7.6). He’s likely to gobble up the boards.

Second, Quigley’s addition means Binghamton can move Peterson back to his natural position on the wing.

Peterson played well down the stretch last season, even out of position. But I’m expecting a big jump from him as a more traditional off-ball rim-and-3 scorer, given he’s a strong slasher and finisher (60% at the rim) who can step out and rip it (38% from 3) while playing borderline-elite defense (1.6 DRAPM, third in the conference). The wing is precisely where you want him, and where he’s likely to be efficient in this scheme.

Despite playing out of position, Binghamton’s Net Rating was 15 points higher with Peterson on the court than off.

Joining him on the wing will likely be returning guard Evan Ashe and Buffalo transfer Bryson Wilson.

I expect Wilson to make a substantial impact as a multi-positional defender and rebounder. He’s a terrific athlete, as shown by his statistical profile (21% defensive rebounding rate, 98th percentile; 5% Hakeem rate, 92nd percentile; 2.1 DRAPM, 91st percentile).

But Wilson is not a very skilled player — he’s more like a bull in a china shop. He’s going to get downhill a ton, score a bunch in transition (33% of his points last season came on the fast-break; 1.15 PPP, 66th percentile), and draw a metric ton of fouls (47% free-throw rate). But, to be honest, that’s a pretty good fit for Binghamton.

Ashe as the starting two-guard concerns me. He’s athletic and can be a uniquely impactful guard on the interior as a cutter (1.64 PPP, 97th percentile) and two-way rebounder. But he’s also a dreadful shooter (21% from 3 for his career) who turns the ball over a ton (19% turnover rate to 10% assist rate) and was one of the main reasons for Binghamton’s brutal dribble defense last season (1.02 PPP allowed, 11th percentile).

Binghamton’s Defensive Rating dropped 13 points when Ashe was on the court compared to off. And he scored five points per game while adding nothing as a floor spacer.

Bottommost Bearcat Thoughts

Over the past few seasons, Binghamton’s been one of the most downhill offenses in the nation. Last season, the Bearcats ranked top-15 nationally in cutting (10%) and at-the-rim (50%) frequency, while leading the conference in free-throw rate (36%). Downhill perimeter cutting, rim-running, and drawing contact are the building blocks of Sanders’ offense.

But with his desire to play more aggressively and up-tempo, I wondered if Sanders would want to change the half-court scheme this season.

“We’re always trying to get easy buckets,” Sanders said. “One of the ways you can get easy buckets is by cutting, and we have a big guy that we want to play through (Lilley).”

While that doesn’t exactly answer the question, I’m going to assume that Binghamton’s half-court scheme will remain mostly unchanged.

It should work this season. Quigley should be an excellent distributor in this cut-heavy offense, and there are plenty of dudes on the roster who can rim-run and cut — especially Peterson and Wilson, but perhaps Lilley, too.

On the other end of the court, Sanders typically coaches up good defenses. The Bearcats have a very imposing frontcourt, with two strong, athletic, multi-positional wing defenders (Wilson, Peterson) and a big dude to anchor the rim (Lilley). Plus, they’re all elite rebounders.

“I think we can be really good defensively because of our size, our athleticism, and our principles in how we guard,” Sanders said.

On the other hand, I’m worried about the dribble defense between Ashe and Quigley, and that could be an even greater concern if Lilley doesn’t hold his own as the rim protector. Binghamton was quietly ripped apart at the rim last season, allowing over 33 paint points per game, primarily due to its inability to stop the dribble.

However, more athleticism might help the Bearcats’ transition defense, which was abhorrent last season (13 fast-break points per game allowed, fifth percentile) and contributed to their poor interior defensive metrics.

But I have two larger concerns.

First, aside from Peterson and, to an extent, Lilley, there’s close to zero shooting on the squad. Quigley doesn’t shoot. Ashe can’t shoot. Wilson can’t shoot. Lemond doesn’t shoot. Jackson Benigni’s return from last year’s season-ending injury will be huge, as he’s the only somewhat-efficient high-volume shooter among the top six guys.

Second, the depth is questionable. After the top six guys, the Bearcats will be relying on plenty of freshmen and JUCO transfers.

These concerns tie together.

Shooting and spacing issues can kill a downhill-driving, rim-running cutting attack, because defenses will sag down, muck up the lane, and put a shell over the rim. Last season, Binghamton led the conference in ShotQuality’s Shot Selection metric (because it led the conference in Rim-and-3 Rate). But it ranked eighth in ShotQuality’s spacing metric, which certainly didn’t help the turnover issues.

And that was with plenty of shooting on the team. Chenery shot the lights out last season. Walker hit over 42% of his 4.4 3-point attempts per game. Ben Callahan-Gold was a weapon in the pick-and-pop attack, and he made 35% of five 3-point attempts per game as the stretch five. The Bearcats ranked in the top 100 nationally in 3-point percentage (35%).

Those three accounted for 170 of Binghamton’s 227 made 3s last year, and departing tweener Walsh accounted for another 22.

Not to mention, Walsh and Chenery were the team’s most impactful players last season by on-off net rating.

My point is that the Bearcats lost significant production, particularly on offense, and Sanders is looking to unproven additions to replace much of it.

But he’s unfazed.

“I’m not too worried about that,” Sanders said. “Quigley is much improved, shooting 37% from deep in practice since joining us in the Summer. Ryan Richardson hit about 39% of his 3s at the JUCO level last year. Benigni has been a really good shooter over the Summer, and he’s healthy.”

I will mention that I’m partial toward starting Benigni over Ashe at the two. Both are poor defenders, but Benigni provides the offense with spacing and shot-making. Also, Benigni snagged 1.4 steals per game two seasons ago at Stonehill, which could help soften last season’s disastrous turnover differential.

Sanders is also unfazed about depth concerns.

“I feel really good about our depth because we brought in freshmen who can play,” Sanders says. “Jayden Kelsey is a 6-foot-7 Swiss Army knife that does everything for us, playing one through four. Jake Blackburn is an elite shooter. Our JUCO guys could contribute and play right away.”

He also counters my point about spacing in a cut-heavy offense.

“Spacing is dictated partially by shooting,” Sanders said. “But spacing can also be when you cut correctly, and it creates space. And when you play fast, you don’t allow teams to set up and load up, which also creates gaps.”

Ultimately, I’m pretty high on Binghamton overall — despite my preseason numbers (seventh in the conference in Net Rating, -12.6), which I think drastically underrate the Bearcats.

I love the Bearcats’ portal class, which Torvik ranks second in the conference. I believe Quigley and Lilley will be two of the most impactful additions in the conference, while Wilson works perfectly with Peterson on the wing. I think the offense will work, I think the Bearcats will be vacuums on the boards, and I think the defense should be similar to the past few years, if not better, with all the added frontcourt size — the Bearcats are much bigger this season after adding three players 6-foot-8 or taller.

I think Binghamton has a great shot at hosting a home playoff game.

TLDR: There are some concerns about replacing shooting and spacing, but I like how the roster fits Sanders’ two-way scheme. I expect Quigley to hit Peterson and Wilson on endless rim-running cuts, while the frontcourt should be imposing on defense and on the glass. I think this is a top-four team in the conference.

How I See The Roster:

• On-Ball Guard: Jeremiah Quigley

• Off-Ball Guards: Evan Ashe, Jackson Benigni

• Two-Way Wings: Wes Peterson, Bryson Wilson

Possible Starting Five:

Albany Great Danes

For the first time in head coach Dwayne Killings’ four-year tenure with the Danes, Albany hosted a Conference Tournament game last season.

And, for the first time under Killings, Albany made the AmEast tournament semifinals.

The Great Danes were the inverse of UMBC. They weren’t a great half-court offense or defense, but they forced a boatload of turnovers and crushed the offensive glass, winning games by winning the shot-volume battle. Albany led the conference in FGA differential (+195 overall, +86 in conference play).

Their shot-volume performance was primarily a result of some athletic, versatile transfers, including DeMarr Langford, Kacper Klaczek, and Byron Joshua.

Killings turned over his roster again this season, again bringing in a bunch of lengthy athletic pieces. He’s always been a pretty good recruiter — Albany has the best transfer portal class and the second-most talented roster in the conference by Torvik’s metrics.

“If you look at our league, size and length are so important,” Killings said. “Positional size is huge, and we have bodies and length.”

Albany’s fresh-faced roster features seven guys at least 6-foot-7, including one 7-footer in returner Bautista Girault, who I hope sees the floor more after averaging eight minutes per game last season.

The incoming frontcourt pieces are fascinating.

Rider transfer Ife West-Ingram has the highest upside. He’s a 6-foot-7 wing/forward tweener who can really play around the rim as a borderline-elite finisher (75% shooting at the rim, 87th percentile) with an above-average post-up game (.94 PPP, 66th percentile). He’s also an excellent inside-out passer (15% assist rate, 90th percentile) who can crash the offensive glass (1.60 rebound-and-scramble PPP, 91st percentile). Also, he’s a rock-solid multi-positional defender.

“He can play above the rim as a rebounder and finisher,” Killings says.

UMass transfer Tarique Foster is crazy long for a wing, standing 6-foot-8, but he is raw. I imagine he’ll slide in behind West-Ingram in the wing rotation.

In the frontcourt, Cleveland State transfer Isaac Abidde is a versatile rebounder and defender who can step out and shoot it (41% from 3, 1.30 pick-and-pop PPP last year). However, he has a serious turnover issue that needs addressing (18% rate, 28th percentile). Killings says he’ll be a small-ball lineup anchor.

FIU transfer Okechukwu Okeke is an elite shot-blocker (8% rate across nine minutes per game in 2023-24), but he’s a super unpolished offensive player. Oklahoma State transfer Yaya Keita is similarly built — Killings describes him as a “positional guy with brute strength.”

The X-Factor on the team might be JUCO transfer Abdoulaye Fall. An NJCAA All-American, Fall averaged 11 points, four rebounds, and a couple of stocks (steals/blocks) per game with Indian Hills. He’s a self-described 6-foot-7 guard (per his Twitter/X profile) who can fill it up from all three levels (35% from deep last season), but I imagine he’ll factor into the frontcourt as an athletic, versatile defender and shot maker.

How these guys all fit together with returners Sultan Adewale (who I thought played very well in limited spurts last season when Albany was banged up) and Ma’Kye Taylor is anyone’s guess.

“We’re still trying to figure out the rotation,” Killings said. “But we can be very versatile in the frontcourt.”

Who plays where and when is a mystery, but there are plenty of high-upside intriguing pieces, and Albany could be one of the biggest teams in the conference, potentially running 6-foot-7 at the 3, 6-foot-9 at the four, and 6-foot-10 or 7-foot at the five.

The backcourt is more worrisome. With Amar’e Marshall and Byron Joshua moving on, the Danes will need to replace a boatload of backcourt production (29 points and six assists per game).

I’m relatively high on returning guard Amir Lindsey, who I expect to take lead point guard duties. He’s a similar player to Joshua, a quick-twitched pass-first guard who loves playing in the open court (1.16 transition PPP, 69th percentile), which is vital in Killings’ offense.

While Lindsey wasn’t all that effective as a ball-screen initiator (.85 PPP, 43rd percentile), he should be a good table setter who takes care of the rock — over the final 10 regular-season games last year, he posted a 19% assist rate to a 12% turnover rate.

“Amir has to set the table,” Killings said. “But he also has to do more. He has to get more guys involved. We need him to score in the open floor, and I think he’s learned how to play with more pace. A big piece of his development is his ball-screen offensive game, where he needs to be able to score, facilitate, and read defenses or multiple coverages.”

For what it’s worth, EvanMiya projects Lindsey as the team’s best player (0.67 BPR) with the fourth-highest Playmaking Value score in the AmEast (6.12). Hopefully, he’s ready to step into the lead ball-handling role.

“Amir was able to get loose and do some things last year because he was on the floor with Byron,” Killings said. “Now, he has a different running mate with him. He has different guys in the corner and on the perimeter. He needs to figure out the responsibility of both controlling the game and closing the game.”

Lindsey should be a fine table-setter, but I’m not overly excited about Nasir Muhammad or Will Richardson as off-ball scoring guards.

Muhammad was an acceptable catch-and-shoot option at Northern Illinois (35% from 3; 1.04 PPP, 58th percentile). But he can’t create his own shots or playmake for others, and he didn’t grade out as a good defender (-2.2 DRAPM, 7th percentile).

I’ve always had a soft spot for Richardson, but he spooks me.

He was hurt for most of last season, so I’ll reference his 2023-24 season, when Fordham’s Net Rating dropped nearly 14 points with him on the court. He’s a dribble-happy, shoot-first guard who’s poor in ball screens (.75 PPP, 26th percentile) and is a horrendously inefficient scorer (33% from the field, 29% from 3). Also, he’s only an average defender (-0.5 DRAPM, 40th percentile).

“We need him to be a three-level scorer,” Killing said. “He’s a guy who can isolate, score in ball screens, score off the ball. He’s really good off wide pins and stagger actions. Offensively, we’re exploring new things with him in mind.”

For what it’s worth, Richardson was a good off-ball screen scorer at Fordham (1.13 PPP, 79th percentile), albeit on low volume. I guess I’ll believe it when I see it — he could improve mightily at a lower level.

If Richardson doesn’t pan out, JUCO transfer Jaden Kempson might get a shot to shoulder some of the scoring load. From what I’ve read, he’s a certified bucket-getter who averaged over 14 PPG at Midland College, including seven 20-plus point efforts.

Also, Lindsey isn’t a bad score-first backcourt option. He shot 35% from deep last season, which included a few off the dribble and a few in transition.

Definitive Dane Thoughts

While I think we should take Albany seriously, I was shocked to see that KenPom projects Albany as the league’s second-best team (-7.6 ADJEM). My numbers are slightly lower on the Danes (-9.7 Net Rating, sixth in the AmEast).

Then again, you could rank the two-through-seven teams in any order. The middle of the league is a crapshoot.

Let’s start with the bullish argument for the Danes.

For starters, Killings should be able to fix the defense. Over the past two seasons, he’s tried to run a doomed drop-coverage scheme with undersized big men at the five, resulting in one of the nation’s worst interior defenses — Albany ranked eighth in the AmEast in 2-point shooting allowed (56%) while allowing nearly 37 paint points per game.

This season, I expect a vastly different schematic approach with all of these new, versatile, monstrous frontcourt pieces.

“Instead of dropping a forward for protection in the paint, we’re definitely going to extend our pressure,” Killings said. “With our length, we can be disruptive, getting up to the line both one pass away or in ball-screen actions to take things away while generating some offense from our defense. We can switch more and fly around more.”

That’s a huge green flag. The Danes were good on the boards last year and excellent at pressuring the ball, but they couldn’t protect the rim. Having similar athleticism with more length and a legit shot-blocker, paired with a more switch-friendly system, could result in the best of both worlds. The Danes’ defense was noticeably better when Adewale ran at the five last season, so a frontcourt rotation of West-Ingram, Abide, Fall, and Okeke is potentially terrifying.

There’s also plenty of depth, and plenty of lineup combinations that feature top-tier positional size. As we saw with Bryant last season, that could be the key to winning this beloved low-major league.

On the other end of the court, I like Lindsey as a lead guard, and West-Ingram is a perfect fit for the Danes’ transition-heavy, downhill rim-running offense.

Now, for the more bearish case.

Last season, Albany had no shortage of shot creators, but none of them scored well because the spacing was horrific. The Danes ranked 321st nationally in ShotQuality’s Spacing metric, as they relied far too often on Langford and Justin Neely’s athleticism in post-up sets and on the offensive glass. In that situation, Marshall — who was formerly a high-efficiency, high-volume scoring guard — had the least efficient season of his career.

This season, the opposite is true. The Danes should have better spacing with Lindsey, Muhammad, Abidde, and Fall, but that might not help if Richardson is your go-to scoring option.

Meanwhile, Lindsey can hit shots but is better as a table-setter, Muhammad is a pure off-ball guard, you can’t trust the ball in Abidde’s hands with his turnover issue, Okeke is a potential zero on the offensive end, and you can’t run much offense through Adewale or Taylor.

That leaves West-Ingram to shoulder a huge shot-creation and rim-pressure load, which could work, but he only averaged four PPG last year. Maybe one of the JUCO guys can translate as bucket-getters at this level.

Not to mention, Killings’ track record as an in-game coach and schemer is poor. He seldom puts his players in the right place or extracts the most from the talented rosters he assembles. The Danes ranked sub-300 nationally in ATO PPP last season (.90).

With a questionable coach and without a certified bucket-getting guard, I could see plenty of crunch-time struggles for the Danes this season.

Regardless, we should take Albany seriously. Behind Vermont, the league is wide open, and Albany was a top-four team last year. I also highly doubt the roster bottoms out near the NJIT and New Hampshire tier.

TLDR: I think the defense will be markedly improved behind a potentially terrifying frontcourt. However, I don’t trust the go-to scoring options outside of West-Ingram, and I’m always worried about Killings as a pre-game and in-game schematic coach. High ceiling, but I think the Danes will end up somewhere in the middle of the pack.

How I See The Roster:

• On-Ball Guard: Amir Lindsey

• Off-Ball Guards: Nasir Muhammad, Will Richardson, Jaden Kempson

• Two-Way Wings: Ife West-Ingram, Abdoulaye Fall, Isaac Abidde, Tarique Foster

• Bigs: Okechukwu Okeke, Yaya Keita, Sully Adewale, Ma’Kye Taylor, Bautista Girault

Possible Starting Five:

• Abdoulaye Fall / Isaac Abidde

• Okechukwu Okeke / Yaya Keita

• Sixth Man: Isaac Abidde / Abdoulaye Fall

Maine Black Bears

While Becker has long run the America East, I’ve frequently wondered over the past year if Chris Markwood is now the conference’s best coach.

What Markwood has done in Orono is nothing short of miraculous.

In eight seasons under Bob Walsh and Richard Barron (2015 to 2022), the Bears won 46 games. Markwood has won 48 across his first three seasons.

He’s continuously improved each year, going 13-17 (7-9) in year one, 15-17 (7-9) in year two, and 20-14 (10-6) with an America East Championship appearance in year three.

Markwood’s Bears broke all sorts of curses last season.

He’s done a good job grabbing under-the-radar portal guys who work for his two-way system (Kellen Tynes, Jaden Clayton, Christopher Mantis, Peter Filipovity, Gedi Juozapaitis). His game plans and in-game adjustments are masterful, and often leave opposing coaches lost. He’s a coach who elevates his rosters, which is so essential given it’s pretty hard to convince young basketball players to come hoop in the depths of Orono (where the Allen’s Coffee Brandy flows like water).

Well, Markwood is going to have to prove his coaching chops this season, because I’m not a big believer in the roster. The Black Bears were picked second in the AmEast preseason poll, but not a single player was voted to the Preseason All-Conference Team — that’s putting a lot of confidence in the fourth-year head coach.

Before we talk about the negatives, I’ll discuss the positives.

I really like the frontcourt. The returning duo of Killan Gribben and Keelan Steele gives Maine good consistency up front, and both are effective.

I think Steele is the breakout candidate. He flashed serious two-way athleticism at times last season — the games against Duke and UMBC come to mind — as a mobile rim-running roller (1.12 PPP, 76th percentile) and vertical post-up defender (.73 PPP allowed, 71st percentile).

“He’s got some budding tools,” Markwood said. “He’s a very versatile guy at his size. He’s got really good pop, he’s quick, he’s athletic. He can play quick rips in the mid-post and drive from the perimeter. He can score with his back to the basket. He’s a great rim runner who can catch and finish.”

I was initially skeptical of Gribben’s potential impact in the AmEast, but the Irishman quietly developed into one of the league’s best defensive bigs. He ranked second in the league in block rate (8%) and DRAPM (2.1) while grading well-above-average as a post defender (.71 PPP allowed, 74th percentile).

While he only averaged five PPG, he shot over 70% from 2-point range (third in the conference), including 77% at the rim (91st percentile). He was elite as a roller (1.42 PPP, 93rd percentile) and borderline-elite as a poster (1.00 PPP, 78th percentile).

“He’s got great touch around the rim,” Markwood said. “He can score off drop-offs, but if you can get him in good spots with his back to the basket, he can hurt you down there. And he’s very mobile.”

“With both of them, you’re going to see an expanded skillset and an expanded confidence within their games and freedom in terms of how they’re able to play,” Markwood said. “They don’t have to be scoring with their back to the basket, or they don’t have to be scoring rolling to the rim off ball screens. They can do a lot of different things.”

I don’t often like to overanalyze Coach Speak, but I have to admit Markwood couldn’t wait to bring up SEMO transfer TJ Biel in our interview. I believe Markwood mentioned Biel’s potential impact three or four times, which I think is telling.

Biel is a fantastic complementary piece. He’s a 6-foot-7 versatile forward who can impact every area of the game. He’s a good finisher (59% from 2, 77% at the rim) and two-way rebounder (6% offensive rebounding rate, 16% defensive rebounding rate) who can step out and hit a few catch-and-shoot triples (34%). He graded out as an elite defender at SEMO (2.0 DRAPM, 90th percentile) who shines switching in ball-screen coverage (.59 PPP allowed, 86th percentile).

“I think he’s in line for a breakout year, and I think he’s really talented,” Markwood says. “He’ll play more at the four, and he’s different from what we’ve had at that spot. He has the perimeter skill, but he can go down and score at a high level in the post. We can move him around, and he’s a great two-way player who’s a big-time defender and rebounder.”

I expect Wichita State transfer Yanis Bamba and UMass Lowell transfer Mekhi Gray to be in the wing mix behind Biel.

I don’t know much about Bamba, given that he redshirted last season. Markwood describes him as a playmaking wing who is really good off the bounce and is super athletic around the rim.

However, I know plenty about Gray, who’s at his third America East stop (he also played four years at NJIT). It was only two years ago that he averaged double-digit scoring for the Highlanders, whose Net Rating jumped nearly 20 points when he was on the court compared to when he was off. He’s a typical two-way inside-the-arc wing. Although he’s relatively small (6-foot-4), he’s long and athletic with the ability to rack up stocks and rebounds while effectively defending perimeter ball-screens (.60 PPP allowed, 84th percentile) and the post (.54 PPP allowed, 93rd percentile).

“He’s got more guard skills than your traditional big wing,” Markwood said. “We expect him to be a guy that we can count on and lean on to be a high-level two-way player.”

Of course, we haven’t talked about Maine’s highest-profile addition, Ace Flagg.

Cooper’s twin brother comes to Maine as a three-star recruit. People forget that their mom played ball for the Black Bears. He also had offers from West Virginia and George Washington, but ultimately declined them to play for his hometown squad.

“He’s a guy who is going to help you win basketball games,” Markwood said. “He can really blend into any rotation. He’s not going to hunt his own shots, but he can make open shots, drive closeouts, and he’s really unique in the post. He can really pass, and he’s as tough as they come as a versatile, switchable, physical defender.”

I tapped UMaine basketball’s ESPN+ play-by-play broadcaster, Bryan Stackpole, for the full Flagg scout:

“I think he can and will start. He should be an All-Rookie selection and a decent contributor, but I don’t expect him to dominate. I see a cross between Gribben last year and Lopez two years ago, when he averaged 8.6 PPG, but with a few more rebounds. He’s a good inside scorer with a soft touch on midrange shots, but don’t hold your breath that he’ll hit a ton of 3s. He has his brother’s basketball IQ and passing ability, too. He was the second-best player on the Maine United Team that made a deep run in the EYBL a few years back — they played the Boozer brothers, and Ace looked great versus them. I imagine his Greensboro Day School stats should translate to the America East, and he won a state title in three different states in four years.”

Couldn’t put it better if I tried, Bryan.

The Bears are going to need every ounce of wing production they can find, as they lost a metric ton in the backcourt and on the wing over the offseason.

These highly successful past few years were predicated on high-level guard-and-wing production. Kellen Tynes and Jaden Clayton were unbelievable two-way guards, while A.J. Lopez and Quion Burns were big-time shot makers and impactful switchable defenders.

Markwood leveraged these guys in two ways.

First, he ran a continuity ball-screen motion offense with Tynes and Clayton as the primary ball-handlers. They bullied their way to the paint, either scoring or kicking the ball out to Burns and Lopez on the wings.

Second, he ran an extended on-ball-pressure-heavy scheme that leveraged his guards’ quick hands to be disruptive and force turnovers. Tynes won AEDPOY in all three years with the Bears.

All four of those guys departed, and I’m not overly excited about the replacements.

Replacing the three-time DPOY (who also averaged five assists per game) will be a combination of a freshman, a Redshirt freshman, and a rising Sophomore who walked on the team last season — Darius Lopes, Bashir N’Galang, and Caleb Crawford.

“If you’re looking at the point guard spot on paper, we’re going to go young,” Markwood said. “We have three guys who can all naturally play that spot.”

“Lopes had a great Reshirt year,” Markwood added. “He got a chance to compete against Tynes and Clayton every day, and definitely more than held his own. He’s a guy who will surprise some people this year.”

“N’Galang is similar to the guys we’ve had,” Markwood continues. “A tough defender who can get into the paint and make plays for himself or others. He’s got a hard-nosed mentality.”

“Caleb Crawford was a walk-on who played a little bit last year, helping us win a game at Duquesne when we had some injuries,” Markwood concludes. “He’s a good player and a scholarship-level guy.”

I’m very hesitant that this trio can replicate the impact Tynes had.

Returning guard Logan Carey will play a much bigger role this year after averaging 10 minutes per game last season. He’s built in the same mold as Tynes and Clayton on the defensive end as a ball-screen pest (.35 PPP allowed, 98th percentile) who can gobble up steals.

Ryan Mabrey is the most intriguing incoming transfer. Before playing at Quinnipiac last season, he made the All-MAC Freshman team two seasons ago with Miami (OH) after averaging eight points per game while shooting 37% from deep. He’s a solid off-ball sniper (38% in catch-and-shoot 3-point opportunities), but his questionable shot diet needs some work — he shoots off the dribble too much and doesn’t get to the rim enough.

“He fits our style of play very well,” Markwood said. “He’ll be utilized differently than he was at Quinnipiac. We see a more versatile guy. He’ll have the freedom to play more as a combo guard. He actually has really good ball skills, as he passes it just as well as he shoots it. We like versatile guards who can dribble, pass, and shoot, and I think he fits that mold perfectly.”

Rock-Bottom Black Bear Thoughts

Maine is the conference’s second-best defensive team in my preseason power ratings (105.8 ADJDE), which I think is fair. Gribben is an elite defensive anchor, and the Bears sport plenty of size and switchability at the other frontcourt spots. I think they’ll be pretty good three through five.

Although there will be some obvious regression after losing the three-time DPOY, I wouldn’t be surprised if Markwood coaches up some of the younger guards into solid defensive contributors — that seems to be his specialty.

The other end of the court is confusing and worrisome.

I think the Bears will have to play more through the frontcourt this season, mostly by necessity.

Markwood noted he still plans on running his base continuity ball-screen offense, but did say that more of the ball-handling duties might shift to the wing.

“I think we have some versatile pieces on the wing who can handle a lot of the ball-handling responsibilities and help us initiate offense and make us look a little bit different,” he said. “We’ll probably run more through [Steele and Gribben], but we’ll still run our base.”

I’m uncertain how Markwood’s offense will work without two uber-experienced ball-handlers. Gribben was highly productive last season, and Steele has a high upside, but both relied on Tynes and Clayton dishing them the ball down low night in and night out. Markwood is confident they can both take the next step by flashing an “expanded skill set,” but I’m uneasy about their potential as mid-to-low-post shot creators and playmakers.

The same goes for Biel, who could be a fantastic two-way wing but lacks ball skills. Could Flagg come out of the gate as a primary ball-handler right away? How good of a “playmaking wing” is Bamba?

The other concerning piece is shooting and floor spacing.

For one, I think Maine’s three best players might be Biel, Steele, and Gribben. Can you play all three of those guys at the same time without haphazardly shrinking the floor? Biel can shoot it, but Gribben and Steele didn’t make a single triple last season.

Even if you rotate those three in the frontcourt, I’m still uncertain if there’s enough shooting on the roster.

The Bears lost a boatload of shooting in the offseason between Lopez, Burns, Tynes, Clayton, and Chris Mantis. Those five accounted for 219 of Maine’s 225 made 3s last season.

Not to mention the Bears shot the lights out, leading the AmEast by shooting a ridiculous 39% from deep in conference play. ShotQuality projected that mark should’ve been closer to 34% based on the “quality” of attempts, so regression is likely lurking.

Another problem is that floor spacing is necessary for a ball-screen motion offense. Over the past few seasons, Maine’s offense was entirely ineffective when the wings weren’t hitting shots, as defenses sagged down and mucked up the ball-screen lanes, resulting in way too many mid-range jumpers from Tynes.

“You always need shooting on the floor, and I’m always nervous about whether we have enough shooting,” Markwood said. “I think the way we combat it is that the guards we’ll have on the floor are more natural shooters.”

He’s not wrong. While Tynes and Clayton hit some tough shots last year, neither looked comfortable from beyond the arc. Mabrey is a much more natural shooter, Biel can hit some triples, Flagg has a decent jumper, and rising Junior Isaac Bonilla could develop into a respectable shotmaker.

“They’re going to have to prove some of the other stuff,” Markwood continues. “And those are huge shoes to fill.”

I think that’s the story of this year’s Maine team.

The Bears brought in experienced college basketball players, and the frontcourt guys have played a lot of college hoops. Maine is the most experienced team in the conference by average years played (2.43).

However, Maine is an experienced team with very inexperienced guard play, which could be a huge problem given that Markwood rebuilt the Bears on the back of highly aggressive, poised two-way guards.

The season likely hinges on what happens in the backcourt between Carey, Mabrey, and the young guys. And the development of that group will tell us just how good this Markwood guy really is.

TLDR: I project regression on both ends of the court and think Maine slips back toward the middle of the pack. The offensive outlook isn’t great, and while the defensive outlook is more rosy, it’s hard to imagine they’ll be as good as last season without Tynes at the head of the snake.

How I See The Roster:

• On-Ball Guards: Darius Lopes, Bashir N’Galang, Caleb Crawford

• Off-Ball Guards: Ryan Mabrey, Logan Carey

• Two-Way Wings: Ace Flagg, Yanis Bamba, Mekhi Gray

• Bigs: Killian Gribben, Keelan Steele, TJ Biel

Potential Starting Five:

• Darius Lopes / Bashir N’Galang / Caleb Crawford

Tier 3: High-Variance Squads

UMass Lowell River Hawks

This was always going to be a reset year for UMass Lowell.

Eight players from last year’s team exhausted their eligibility. The River Hawks lost the core of their most successful three-year run at the Division I level. Guys like Ayinde Hikim, Abdoul Karim Coulibaly, Max Brooks, Quinton Mincey, Cam Morris and Yuri Covington have all moved on.

Pat Duquette’s top eight players are likely to be newcomers, all of whom are transfers. There are two true freshmen and two redshirt freshmen as depth pieces. The only returning piece from last year’s team is Keenan Bey, who averaged four points across 10 minutes per game.

Coach Duquette has never endured a roster overhaul like this. I was curious: What’s that process like? Where do you even begin? Are you spending all your time teaching everyone the new system? Or, do you have to learn about your players to install a new system? Do you spend all your time tinkering with rotations and lineups?

“You’re doing all of those things, and you’re doing them all at the same time,” Duquette said. “We’re trying to put in our system, but we’re also trying to get to know the personnel.”

“It’s laboursome.”

There are a million different ways you could analyze the roster. And, it might ultimately be a useless exercise, given Duquette says that they’re “not anywhere near establishing a rotation” as of our interview.

That said, I’m going to attempt to analyze the roster anyway. My preview, my rules.

Duquette tells me the core of the offense will be the same. Over the past few years, the River Hawks have primarily run a flex-motion offense, predicated on cutting, rim-running, post buckets, drawing contact, and grabbing offensive rebounds. These offenses were rim-oriented, and they were often the league’s best.

That said, I think the strength of this year’s team is in the backcourt, and I think it starts with Division II transfer point guard Darrel Yepdo.

Yepdo tore his ACL last season, so he hasn’t played in two years. But he was a force for the 2023-24 Saint Michael’s Purple Knights. That team won 24 games and went 17-5 in conference play en route to a NE10 championship. On that team, Yepdo played the most minutes (33 MPG), led the team in assists (3.7 APG), led the team in steals (1.8 SPG), was the second-highest leading scorer (15.2 PPG), and had the highest on-off net rating (+17.7).

I really like Yepdo. He‘s quick, firm with his handle, and boasts good passing vision. He’s also an elite shooter, draining over 40% of his 4.8 3-point attempts per game during that season — 41% of his catch-and-shoot opportunities and 38% of his off-the-dribble triples.

I also think he can be a solid point-of-attack defender because of his wide frame and quick hands — something that’s important in this defensive scheme, as Hikim showed us during his years in Lowell. He graded out as an elite ball-screen POA defender two years ago (.54 PPP allowed, 89th percentile while forcing a 23% turnover rate).

His tape reminds me of a low-major Bruce Thornton.

But all his production comes from two years ago at the Division II level. Can he be an effective lead guard in the America East?

“I hope so,” Duquette said. “We’re going to need him to be. But when you put up those kinds of numbers at a good Division-II program, that tends to translate.”

Last season, Sami Pissis transferred up from a lower level to New Hampshire and was the conference’s sixth-leading scorer (16.4 PPG) as the primary ball handler for an offensively challenged team. I can envision Yepdo taking a similar path — Duquette tells me the former Purple Knight is the leading candidate to start at point.

But Duquette says he also doesn’t mind playing two point guards, which is something the River Hawks have done in the past. Still, I’d prefer it if they let Yepdo handle primary ball-handling duties — manipulating ball screens, scoring when needed, and hopefully distributing the ball to the other backcourt shooters.

For what it’s worth, transfers Khalil Farmer (Hofstra), Jared Frey (Stony Brook), and Xavier Spencer (Carleton in Canada) all shot over 34% from deep at their last spot.

Among that group, Frey is likely the best shotmaker — EvanMiya projects him to lead the team in 3-point shooting (36%), while Torvik projects him to lead the team in scoring (14.4 PPG). He’s a solid off-the-dribble scorer from deep with good microwave potential due to his mid-range pull-up ability, and he could be a super at-the-elbow or above-the-break threat coming around down screens — he was a super high-volume off-ball screen shooter at his last stop.

He averaged over eight PPG at the Division I level last season, which is essential to note, given there’s “no real proven scoring experience” on the team, as Duquette says.

That said, Frey also can’t get to the rim (1.3 paint PPG last year), doesn’t rebound (1.9 RPG) and is a liability on the defensive end (-1.8 DRAPM) despite his 6-foot-6 frame. Regardless, he should lead the team in scoring.

EvanMiya projects Farmer as the team’s second-best long-range threat (34%). While he has some experience in the drive-and-kick game, he’s predominantly an off-ball catch-and-shoot guard. Otherwise, he’s not much of a dribble creator, and he can get targeted defensively because he’s undersized (6-foot-3).

As a newly minted Canadian resident, I have a soft spot for Spencer, who averaged 14/5/3 while shooting 35% from deep for a good U-Sports program.

“He’s squarely in the rotation and has a chance to play significant minutes,” Duquette said of Spencer. “He’s a mature, experienced, smart, heady player who makes winning plays.”

There are plenty of backcourt concerns, especially on the defensive end, but there are at least some projectable outcomes.

Between transfers Jerrell Roberson (James Madison), Austin Green (Texas State), Angel Montas (Mercer), and Shawn Simmons (Saint Joseph’s), the frontcourt is a grab bag of unknowns.

From what I’m hearing, Roberson is the leading candidate to start at the five, perhaps if only because he’s the team’s tallest player (6-foot-9). He’s played in just 23 games over the past two seasons, so there’s almost no data on him.

That said, there is some tape on him that tells me he’s a big, athletic body who can step out and shoot it with a surprisingly smooth stroke. I’m excited to watch him play.

Green is the other option to start at the five. He’s a strong defensive rebounding big and a potentially plus defender (+0.8 DRAPM last season). During a three-game stretch in mid-January of last season, he averaged 11/8/3 while shooting 54% from the field — including a 10/13/5 game against Georgia Southern — and then barely played for the rest of the season. I don’t know what that means, but I’m intrigued by his potential as a southpaw combo forward.

I’m also hearing that Montas and Simmons are nearly locks to start at the three and the four as wing ‘tweeners.

Montas is a 6-foot-6 slashing wing who spends most of his time pressuring the rim, especially in transition. But it’s hard to get behind him after how inefficient he was at Mercer, averaging a pathetic .72 PPP when attacking the rim (15th percentile) while shooting 44% from point blank, 28% from 3, and drawing a meager 20% free-throw rate.

Simmons is a 6-foot-6 elite athlete who lives at the rim as a cutter and offensive rebounder. He also posted a 4% block rate in limited minutes during the previous season. That said, he wasn’t particularly efficient at anything on offense — he can’t shoot from deep or make free throws — and he’s relatively undersized for a “big man” (6-foot-6).

Just to clean up the end of the bench — Freshmen Victor Okojie and JJ Massaquoi will likely see the court in some form or fashion this year.

“I like our freshmen,” Duquette says. “Massaquoi has a man’s body — physically, there’s no reason why he can’t play.”

“I think they’re both going to be good, but I don’t know how soon. There’s always a learning curve, and it will probably be pretty steep this year.”

Wings Isaiah Walter and Kris Johnson are upcoming redshirt frosh, but I can’t speak to what their roles may be.

Remaining River Hawk Thoughts

I think it’ll be a very steep learning curve for the River Hawks. There are so many new players, and not many have played significant minutes at the Division I level.

“We’re not anywhere near where we were in the past,” Duquette says. “That’s just the reality of it, and I think there are a lot of teams in the same situation.”

“You just have to find a way to adjust better than the guys you’re competing against.”

I’m fascinated with how the offense will look. As mentioned, I think the strength of the team is in the backcourt, but if Duquette truly believes he’ll keep the flex-motion in place, then he’ll have to find some sort of rim pressure from the frontcourt or wing spots.

For what it’s worth, Simmons, Montas, and Roberson could be strong flex cutters in the system — especially given I expect the spacing to be pretty decent — alongside being potential weapons on the offensive glass. They all have the athletic ability to pressure the rim in Duquette’s system, similar to how Brooks, Mincey, and Morris used to.

But if you’re looking for an offensive big to play through, I think Green is the best candidate, given he’s flashed the ability to create for himself and others on the interior.

However, those four frontcourt pieces have collectively done little to nothing during their Division-I careers. Lowell has likely the highest-variance frontcourt in the league, and I’m far from confident any of them will reach their 99th-percentile outcomes.

I’d be more comfortable playing through the backcourt, with Yepdo as the two-way lead guard while Frey and Farmer slide in as off-ball guard/wing shooters (again, coming around off-ball down screens). Duquette leaned heavily into ball-screen creation with freshman phenom Martin Somerville in the second half of last season, and if I were the head coach of the River Hawks (news flash: I’m not), I’d give Yepdo every shot at doing the same.

“The core of our offense will be the same in terms of what we’re running, but who we’re going to run certain sets for or who we may isolate or play through, I don’t know at this point,” Duquette says.

I guess time will tell.

Things are far more interesting on the defensive end.

Lowell’s defense was a catastrophe last season. Brooks was an elite interior defender and rim protector during his years at Lowell, but Mincey and Morris were sieves. As a result, the Hawks ranked second-to-last in the conference in paint PPG allowed (37), only ahead of the vertically-challenged UMBC Retrievers (40).

If Duquette did anything in the portal, he brought in size and versatility.

“I think we have more size,” Duquette says. “We have guys that are big enough and have played minutes at the college level.”

Frey, Green, Roberson, Montas, and Simmons all stand 6-foot-6 or higher, and they’re all relatively mobile and athletic. While Lowell played primarily drop coverage during the Brooks-Coulibaly years, Duquette mixed in plenty of on-the-level switching coverage when his base defense wasn’t generating stops. There’s a chance this frontcourt has a lot of positional versatility and flexibility, which could lead to a bump in defensive production, not to mention a clear improvement on the boards. However, the bar the River Hawks set last year is pretty low.

Of course, the POA dribble defense could really struggle if Farmer and Frey get consistently hunted. That said, both graded out as solid ball-screen defenders by PPP allowed (Farmer .56, 88th percentile; Frey .67, 75th percentile), and Yepdo is a potential weapon in that department (.54, 89th percentile). Maybe it won’t be so bad.

There’s an argument to be made for positive close-game regression. The River Hawks went a nation-worst 1-9 in games decided by five points or less last season — they were cursed. Then again, this is a brand new team, so I’m uncertain whether the prior year’s results will have any impact on this season.

The non-conference will be tough. I asked Duquette if there was a non-conference game he was most looking forward to:

“To be honest, no,” he says. “It’s going to be an incredibly challenging schedule. We have to keep our heads up and keep trying to get better and stay positive with each other so we can make it to conference play.”

The fresh-faced squad is likely to struggle out of the gate — the November 7th game at UConn should be a bloodbath. But by the time January rolls around, we should have a pretty good idea of this team’s identity, and ultimately, their range of outcomes.

For now, it’s hard to know. The River Hawks are the AmEast’s highest-variance team.

But the inexperience and incontinuity spook me, so I’m partial to believing the ceiling and floor are both relatively low.

TLDR: I think Yepdo is the real deal, and a backcourt with him on-ball while Frey and Farmer shoot off-ball could be pretty productive on offense. The frontcourt has three athletic transfers who could rip apart the rim in Duquette’s flex-motion, but they’ve done collectively nothing at the Division I level. Incredibly high-variance team, but I think the inexperience holds them back.

How I See The Roster:

• On-Ball Guards: Darrel Yepdo, Xavier Spencer

• Off-Ball Guards: Jared Frey, Khalil Farmer

• Slashing Wing/Forward ’Tweeners: Angel Montas, Shawn Simmons

• Bigs: Jerrell Roberson, Austin Green

Potential Starting Five:

Bryant Bulldogs

Unfortunately, Phil Martelli Jr. decided to move on, bringing Barry Evans and Keyshawn Mitchell with him. Additionally, the Bulldogs lost AE POY Earl Timberlake and several other key players to graduation.

I have to admit, I’m skeptical of the Jamion Christian hire — and not just because he never replied to my email about a preseason interview. I thought the Bulldogs would’ve been better served hiring from within.

Christian pieced together two NCAA Tournament teams at Mount St. Mary’s. Still, he mostly underperformed at Siena and George Washington — literally, he underperformed his KenPom preseason rank in all four seasons.

His Mountaineers teams won because they were aggressive. Christian is a Shaka Smart disciple, as evidenced by his all-out ball pressure and havoc scheme. In 2016, The Mount ranked third nationally in defensive turnover rate (25%) while pressing at the third-highest rate nationally (34%).

On one hand, the scheme is elite at preventing catch-and-shoot opportunities and results in general offensive chaos. On the other hand, Christian’s extended defenses often rim-funnel without much rim deterrent, and they’re poor on the defensive glass.

That trend continued, though less effectively, during his years at Siena and George Washington. He ultimately toyed around with a zone, then a conservative (and thoroughly ineffective) man-to-man, before taking off for Italy, where he spent a few years as the head coach of Pallacanestro Trieste. For what it’s worth, his squad won the Serie A2 championship last season and earned promotion to Serie A.

On the other end of the court, I suspect Christian will install an up-tempo spread pick-and-roll offense, although he toyed with more motion concepts during his final year at George Washington.

Of greater importance, will this all work at Bryant?

For what it’s worth, he’s pieced together a quite versatile, athletic, and lengthy roster.

It starts with retuning guard/wing tweener Jakai Robinson. He’s an uber-athletic guard at 6-foot-5 and brings slashing and rebounding to any backcourt rotation, but he’s very raw as a ball-handler and passer. Although he can hold his own in ball-screen coverage (.70 PPP allowed, 69th percentile), I worry about him as an all-around defender (-1.9 DRAPM, 11th percentile).

Chicago State transfer Quincy Allen will be one of the best athletes in the conference. He’s a 6-foot-8 wing who can rack up stocks (1.7 per game last year) and rebounds (5.4 per game). However, he’s a horribly inefficient shooter, and he doesn’t get to the rim or finish enough for his athletic abilities. He averaged nearly double-digit scoring for the Cougars, but it came from usage rather than efficiency.

Regardless of efficiency, my guess is that Allen leads the team in scoring.

George Washington transfer Keegan Harvey is the X-Factor. He played for Christian at George Washington, but not much, as injuries have held him off the court for most of his career. But he’s a 6-foot-11 point forward who can handle the rock, pass, and shoot the lights out. His ceiling is crazy high.

Throw in University of Toronto transfer Lennart Weber (6-foot-8), returning wing Aaron Davis (6-foot-7), and some of the massive freshmen (6-foot-9 Ethane Bourgade, 6-foot-5 redshirt Khalil Williams, 6-foot-9 Tomofei Rudovskii), and Christian has the necessary athleticism and size to run his pressure-cooking scheme.

While Robinson and Allen should be well above-average transition players — which will be a big part of the defense-into-offense, aggressive style I expect the team to play — I’m unsure whether Christian has the ball-handlers or shooters to run a half-court spread ball-screen attack.

If the offense wants to reach its ceiling, I think freshman combo guard Ty Tabales has to be the leading ball-handler.

The New Hampton School graduate is a 6-foot-2, 170-pound combo guard who can defend and shoot at a high level, but I’m a little skeptical of his dribble-drive and passing abilities. He graded out poorly as a ball-screen manipulator in high school (.71 PPP, 41st percentile, 25% turnover rate), and I don’t love what I saw on film.

There might also be a learning curve. Many freshman ball-handlers in this league go through a turnover and decision-making problem (**cough cough** Sean Blake).

Definitive Bulldog Thoughts

I have a feeling that Bryant’s havoc-based mayhem defense will work in year one, mainly because nobody in the league has seen that style of play.

Albany and Maine run the most similar defenses from a ball-pressure perspective, but even they don’t press nearly as much as the Bulldogs likely will.

Additionally, as mentioned, the roster features athleticism, versatility, and switchability. Christian has pieced together a roster that fits his identity quite well.

But that also comes with drawbacks. Specifically, the Bulldogs will likely rim-funnel, and I worry about rim protection if Harvey can’t stay on the court or doesn’t prove to be a reliable rim deterrent. It’s a tiny sample size (11 possessions), but he graded out as a horrific post-up defender with Charleston back in 2021 (1.36 PPP allowed, second percentile). The staff is quite high on Russian big man Timofei Rudovskii, so perhaps he’ll sneak into the defensive rotations.

I’m less enthused about the offense. Much like the past few seasons, I suspect Bryant will be dangerous in the open court and relatively inefficient in the half-court. While he’ll have a high usage rate and progress quickly, I’m pretty skeptical about Tabales’ on-ball skills, and the team is severely lacking shooting and floor spacing on the wing, which could promptly kill any PNR attack.

However, much like UMass Lowell, the Bulldogs are a very high-variance squad.

Specifically, the ceiling for Tabales and Harvey as an inside-out duo is tremendously high, even if the floor is low. Like past years, I could see Bryant running more of a positionless attack, which could be a significant advantage in a league where positional size is paramount.

Similarly, the ceiling for a novel, all-out-attacking defense with lengthy athletic defenders is high — this will be the biggest team in the conference, which will be daunting for opposing ball-handlers. But if they’re not forcing enough turnovers, the interior defense might get ripped apart.

Also, depth might be a question mark with so many freshmen coming off the bench. While I think the whole could be greater than the sum of the parts, I’m not particularly enthused by anybody on the roster.

TLDR: Christian’s havoc-based ball-pressure scheme should play well in the AmEast, where no team has regularly seen it. He has the size and athleticism to effectively implement that scheme. However, the scheme has drawbacks, specifically in rim defense and on the boards. Tabales and Harvey have immensely high ceilings as an inside-out pick-and-roll duo, but also a low floor. There’s also zero shooting around them, which could cook the spacing (see: Kansas the past three years). Ultra high-variance squad, but I’m partial to thinking everything falls apart directy after winning the league and losing the roster.

How I See The Roster:

• On-Ball Guard: Ty Tabales

• Off-Ball Guard: Jakai Robinson

• Off-Ball Wings: Quincy Allen, Lennart Weber, Aaron Davis, Ethane Bourgade

• Bigs: Keegan Harvey, Timofei Rudovskii

Potential Starting Five:

Tier 5: The Basement

NJIT Highlanders

I’m sad to say that NJIT’s Grant Billmeier was the only America East head coach to deny my interview request.

As a true America East sicko, I play in an America East-only fantasy basketball league. I won last year’s regular-season title before Odunowo’s late-season injury helped knock me out of the playoffs.

This year, we all have to prepare for Sebastian Robinson to be a top-three overall pick.

Billmeier runs a downhill ball-screen-heavy attack. The Highlanders dribble the air out of the ball. With Tariq Francis and his 20 PPG moving on (Rutgers), SebRob will likely lead the conference in dribbles per game (conservative estimate: one million).

Is that a good thing? Probably not. He averaged 12 points, three assists, and three rebounds per game last season, but he also shot 34% from the field and 20% from deep while taking a boatload of mid-range jumpers (and shooting 31% on those). He averaged a measly .83 PPP as a ball-screen manipulator (18th percentile), and will only see more of those opportunities this year.

But with a 27% usage rate, you’re going to stuff the stat sheet. And I expect that usage rate to increase in the coming season — Torvik projects him with the highest usage rate among all AmEast players (28%).

The big problem with the Francis-led offenses was that Billmeier was trying to run a dribble-heavy pick-and-roll attack with zero spacing and no rim pressure, which led Francis and Robinson to run directly into crowded lanes and try to hero-ball from the mid-range. The results were predictably disastrous.

That could change this season.

Saint Francis transfer Jeremy Clayville does little to nothing in most areas of the game (no rim pressure, no rebounds, can’t handle the rock, so undersized he’ll get consistently hunted on defense). However, he’s an elite shooter and floor spacer, draining 37% of his nearly five 3-point attempts per game last season.

Combine him with returning guys Jordan Rogers (43% from 3 on 1.2 attempts per game) and Quentin Duncan (43% from 3 on 3.3 attempts per game), and you might have something resembling a spread ball-screen attack, spearheaded by SebRob. Not to mention, Rogers is a stretch four who was good in the pick-and-pop game last year (1.21 PPP, 80th percentile), albeit on very low volume.

Billmeier is hoping that Kansas City transfer Melvyn Ebonkoli can provide some much-needed back-to-the-basket low-block scoring, so that the Highlanders can create some easy baskets and start working paint-to-perimeter.

The problem is that, while Ebonkoli creates a ton of shots in the paint, he’s a very poor finisher for a big man (58% at the rim, 22nd percentile; .83 post-up PPP, 42nd percentile). He’s also a black hole that doesn’t move the ball well, and he has zero range outside the comfy confines of the painted area.

However, Ebonkoli is an elite defender. He’s massive (6-foot-8, 240 lbs), can block about a shot per game, and should work perfectly in Billmeier’s dribble-denial scheme. The advanced defensive metrics love him, as he posted a 2.8 DRAPM (96th percentile), and UMKC’s defensive rating dropped a full 20 points with him on the court compared to off.

Between Ebonkoli, Rogers, and returner Jeffrey Akintolu — who returns this year after missing all of last season with an Achilles tear —  the Highlanders have three frontcourt players whom EvanMiya projects with a positive DBPR. They also have rising Sophomore Malachi Arrington, who’s a monster for the AmEast at 6-foot-11, and rising Sophomore wing Ari Fulton, who’s one of the league’s better rebounders (5.4 per game last season, 15% defensive rebounding rate).

After getting shredded in the paint last season, NJIT’s interior defense might improve drastically. And it’d be nice if the Highlanders could foul less after ranking last in the conference free-throw-rate allowed.

That would be massive. Last season, NJIT’s ball-screen coverage defense was pretty good (.86 PPP allowed, 65th percentile), but only because they denied the dribble and catch-and-shoot opportunies. By selling out on the perimeter, they left themselves wide open to back-door cutters and face-up post scorers. But with an improved frontline, things could look pretty rosy on that end.

Highlighted Highlander Thoughts

NJIT has the most returning minutes in the conference (57%), including a full-time game manager and two other borderline starters. Even better, most of its returners are rising Sophomores (Fulton, Rogers, Arrington, Duncan, John Kelly, Stefan Jimenez-Vojnic).

In the media world, we think of teams with a lot of returning production as ones that will improve year over year. That could absolutely be the case, especially if many of these guys take the classic Year 2 leap.

However, in the transfer portal era, sometimes returning this much production can cap your ceiling. How much better can this group of guys get after winning a full three conference games last season?

My numbers project NJIT with the conference’s worst offense (95.9 ADJOE). But I also project the Highlanders’ defense as middle of the AmEast road (110.6 ADJDE, sixth).

That feels about right.

I think Ebonkoli is a difference maker on defense, and NJIT’s frontcourt is filled with decent players on that end of the court. The Highlanders played frisky on that side of the rock at times last season and were typically OK at cleaning the glass, and that could all could improve this season

While there are some interesting arguments to be made for offensive improvement, I don’t expect the No-Francis, All-SebRob attack to be efficient or productive. Even if the spacing is better, Robinson is not the passer that Francis was, so the offense may still devolve into mindless downhill dribbling.

Plus, despite all the returning production, the Highlanders are still the least experienced team in the conference (1.53 years on average). There are only a few truly established players on the roster.

However, my preseason numbers project NJIT as slightly better than New Hampshire this season, so maybe the Highlanders will find themselves in the America East playoffs for the first time in three seasons — they still haven’t won a conference tournament game since joining the conference in 2020.

TLDR: I actually like the defense, but the offense will be a SebRob-sized black hole. But I think the Highlanders force enough stops to earn a Conference Tournament bid.

How I See The Roster:

• Off-Ball Guards: Jeremy Clayville, Quentin Duncan, Cameron Piggee

• Two-Way Wings: Ari Fulton, Jordan Rogers, Jeffrey Akintolu

• Defensive Bigs: Melvyn Ebonkoli, Malachi Arrington

Potential Starting Five:

• Ari Fulton / Quentin Duncan

• Sixth Man: Quentin Duncan / Ari Fulton

New Hampshire Wildcats

After sustaining a litany of injuries early last season — including season-ending ones to Trey Woodyard and Rex Sunderland — I expected New Hampshire to sink into the basement.

But that didn’t happen. Behind heroic night-to-night efforts from Sami Pissis, the Wildcats improved mightily in the second half, winning six of their final 14 contests en route to a seventh-place regular-season finish.

“We had so many injuries last season, especially early, that it took us so long to get any consistency going,” head coach Nathan Davis tells Mid-Major Madness in an interview. “But it felt like once we got that, which wasn’t until the middle of January, we started to show improvements.”

That begs the question: Can Coach Davis do it again?

While he did turn the roster quite a bit with nine new players — a standard in the transfer portal era — New Hampshire has more continuity entering this season than last.

Before we discuss the roster, it’s essential to discuss the scheme.

Coach Davis’s ideal scheme is an up-tempo, free-flowing motion offense. Once the injuries hit last season, the Wildcats leaned entirely into isolation dribble creation from Pissis and Anthony McComb, ranking 12th nationally in isolation frequency (11%). It was a lot of my-turn, your-turn ball.

“I did not like the way we played last year,” Davis says. “Our pace was poor. We didn’t share the ball enough. There was too much isolation. We’re not going to be successful doing those things.”

Davis wants to put pressure on the opposing defense by forcing them to defend for every second on the shot clock. He wants his team to move the ball, move off the ball, and do everything as quickly as possible.

“I’d like to be in the top 30 nationally in pace of play,” Davis says. “That doesn’t mean we’ll shoot it fast every time, but we’re going to get up there and force the defense to be ready to defend us, or they’ll give us the shots that we’ll want. To do that, we need to get the pace up, cut better to create space, and move the ball to the open guy.”

“We still want to get the right shots, which are layups, front-of-the-rim buckets, post-ups where we’re still getting to the basket, step-in 3s, and fouls. We want to get those, whether it’s four seconds into the shot clock or 30 seconds in.”

Davis returns four players from last year’s squad: wing Davide Poser, forward Dylan Saunders, stretch forward Antoni Siewruk, and traditional big man Jon O’Neill.

The breakout candidate is Poser, who I thought played very well down the stretch last season. He’s a solid 3-and-D wing who banged home 38% of his 4.2 attempted triples per game last season while posting an above-average DRAPM mark (0.3, 55th percentile) behind his 6-foot-4 frame and decent wingspan. He’s also phenomenal in transition (1.59 PPP, 90th percentile), which is perfect for Davis’ vision.

He improved mightily as a dribble creator as the season progressed, putting the ball on the floor more in slash-and-kick and ball-screen sets while continuing to move the ball. Over the final five games, Poser averaged nearly 10 points and two assists per game while significantly cutting his turnover rate (4%, compared to 19% on the season). He also took more triples during the stretch (6.6 per game) and still hit nearly 40% of them.

Without Pissis and McComb gobbling up all the dribbles and shots, Poser should see an instant boost in volume.

“Last year, I think he would have been even better had the ball moved better and not gotten stuck as much,” Davis says. “We would go for stretches of six or seven minutes where he wouldn’t touch the ball, which is unacceptable. He has to be more involved, and that comes from guys moving the ball and being unselfish.”

“He’s much stronger. He’s much better about putting the ball on the floor and playing on the block. He can really shoot it, which will open things up for him. And he’s a solid defender who can move his feet.”

The other key returner is Saunders, who should be more involved in the frontcourt rotations this season. He shot 37% from deep as a stretch forward. Siewruk is a similar stretch forward who shot nearly 40% from deep last year. Unfortunately, neither of them can really handle the rock, and both are liabilities on the defensive end.

Staying in the frontcourt, Davis portaled in Belal El Shakery from Wofford and Comeh Emuobor from Iona. Both are uber-athletic big men who could thrive as two-way rebounders and interior anchors in the AmEast.

However, I’d expect Emuobor to factor in more as a defensive piece. Shakery has more upside considering his robust rate statistics, including a whopping 27% defensive rebounding rate and a 24% assist rate in limited minutes last season.

Shakery was a relatively inefficient scorer last season, as he wasn’t a great finisher and took some questionable shots (too many in the mid-range).

However, with Pissis and McComb moving on, Davis may want to play more through his frontcourt, which is where Shakery could become a half-decent high-post playmaker and scorer.

“I would like to think we’ll be much more balanced,” Davis says. “The ball will move better, as we have more versatile players at more spots. I think we’re capable of having more ball movement, more player movement, more space, and more balance playing inside and out.”

When analyzing the roster, I was pleasantly surprised to see so many potential shot-makers. I spoke about Poser, Saunders, and Siewruk. However, the Wildcats also grabbed guards KiJan Robinson (Hofstra) and Jack Graham (Richmond) in the portal, two potentially strong off-ball shooting specialists.

While Davis wants to run a motion-based offense that de-emphasises the dribble, there needs to be a primary ball-handler and distributor who can spray the ball around to all these shooters and potential frontcourt pieces.

The lead candidate to eat up all of the dribbles Pissis took last season is RJ Kennedy, a lead guard who redshirted at UAB last season.

From what I’ve read, he’s a dynamic guard who can put the ball on the floor and create shots.

“He’s a really talented player,” Davis says. “He’s physical, can score at the rim, make shots, get to the basket, and is a willing passer who can move the ball.”

However, since he redshirted last season, and his 247Sports recruiting page gives you the ol’ 404 error message, nobody really knows anything about Kennedy — outside of the quirky get-to-know-our-players video that the Wildcats social media team put out.

He loves candy and is a big Minecraft fan. Those are green flags to me.

The other option in the backcourt is 5-foot-10 freshman Tyler Bike, who Davis describes as “a pure point guard with great leadership skills.” I’d also expect to see plenty of Robinson at the one when he’s not playing the two.

Whittling Wildcat Thoughts

As of now, I project New Hampshire as the conference’s weakest team (-15.6 Net Rating), with a slightly more potent offense than defense.

While there’s a wide range of outcomes for the squad, I think that base analysis is likely fair.

The positives on the roster are shooting, strength, and athleticism. The negatives are overall defense — especially on the wing — and inexperience. The Wildcats are the second-least experienced team in the conference, and the point guard spot will likely be held down by either a redshirt freshman, a true freshman, or an off-ball shooting guard.

I had a similarly negative view of New Hampshire last preseason, but Pissis was an obvious low-major bad-team superstar. Unless Kennedy is better than I know — and, admittedly, I know close to nothing about him — I don’t see a player of that caliber on this roster. Poser will have to take a significant jump, which is not out of the realm of possibility.

Of course, Davis will attempt to play through all five players on the court, and this squad should improve as the season progresses. I’m guessing the Wildcats will piece together a few pesky upsets late in the year.

But the ceiling still seems capped.

TLDR: Could be a half-decent offense with some shot makers, but the defense could be really bad. The ceiling depends on how well Davis can develop this new-look roster, something he surprisingly excelled at last year. I still power rate the Wildcats as the worst team in the league.

How I See The Roster:

• On-Ball Guard: RJ Kennedy

• Off-Ball Guards: KiJan Robinson, Jack Graham

• Two-Way Wing: Davide Poser

• Stretch Forwards: Dylan Saunders, Antoni Siewruk

• Rebounding Bigs: Belal El Shakery, Comeh Emuobor, Jon O’Neill, John Squire

Potential Starting Five: 

• Sixth Man: Dylan Saunders

Tanner McGrath’s America East Preseason Poll

Power Rankings

Conference Player of the Year

Conference Defensive Player of the Year

Conference Sixth Man of the Year

• Whoever Vermont’s sixth man is

Conference Newcomer of the Year

• Darrel Yepdo, UMass Lowell

Conference Rookie of the Year

Conference Coach of the Year

All-Conference First Team:

• Darrel Yepdo, UMass Lowell

All-Conference Second Team:

• Jeremiah Quigley, Binghamton

• Demetrius Lilley, Binghamton

All-Conference Third Team: