Preview: Notre Dame at No. 4 Duke

DURHAM – There wasn’t a blown call that sparked this winning streak.

Duke has won nine straight games entering Saturday’s game against Notre Dame. Most of them have come convincingly — the last six of them with margins between 21-29 points. Also included in this streak is the win over Auburn and a road win against the team that might be the second-best in the ACC, by 11 points at Louisville.

It’s a run that has seen Duke improve defensively, from elite to the nation’s best, and has featured the Blue Devils hitting their stride offensively. Duke and Iowa State are the only teams in the country with offensive and defensive efficiency ratings in the top 10 of KenPom; Duke has the No. 7 offense and No. 1 defense, ahead of Friday’s games.

The Blue Devils’ longest winning streak in Jon Scheyer’s two-plus seasons is 10 games, at the end of his first season. That came on the heels of the blown call at the end of regulation in Duke’s loss at Virginia; the winning streak carried Duke to an ACC championship about a month later.

While it’s not like a coach is going to tell you how much he doesn’t enjoy coaching his team, it’s worth noting how enthusiastic Scheyer has sounded when talking about missing last weekend’s game at SMU and how he doesn’t want to miss anything else with this year’s group.

He told his wife, Marcelle, so much while they watched Saturday’s game together.

“I just told her, ‘You can lose sight quickly of just how lucky you are,’” Scheyer said. “I don’t want to miss another moment with these guys. I had a moment of appreciation (Tuesday night) before going out.”

Here’s what to know ahead of Saturday’s game:

Time: 12 p.m.

Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium.

TV: ESPN.

Series; last meeting: Duke leads 31-8; Duke won 71-53 in Durham last season, sweeping both games last year and having won four straight meetings against ND.

Records: Notre Dame 7-8, 1-3 ACC; Duke 13-2, 5-0.

Stat to watch: 60%.

This is a baseline number to track.

Duke’s effective field goal percentage — it’s field goal percentage, but with made 3-pointers given more weight — has been over 60% in four straight games. That’s the longest such stretch since at least the 2014-15 season.

Duke’s e-FG rate was over 60% in four of the first six games — against Maine, Army, Wofford and Kansas. It dipped under 60% for five straight games — though, 57.8% against Auburn was impressive — and now that the Blue Devils’ offense has been firing on all cylinders, it’s over 60% in four straight.

The Blue Devils have lost two games in Scheyer’s two-plus seasons as coach with an e-FG clip above 60%. One of them was that Kansas game; the other was at Wake Forest last season (Duke’s e-FG was 64.3% in that game and Wake’s was 69.8%, the highest Duke has given up under Scheyer).

Having eight games with an e-FG mark over 60% already makes it clear this Duke team is one of the best-shooting teams of the past decade. In the previous 10 seasons, Duke has had double-digit games of e-FG percentages over 60% in four of them; last season, Duke had 11 such games, and then the Blue Devils had 13 in the 2017-18 season, 10 in the 2016-17 season, and 12 in the national championship season of 2014-15.

Matchup to watch: Notre Dame vs. itself.

There’s some human nature involved that makes it tough to figure out how the Irish will play in this game.

Notre Dame had UNC on the ropes last weekend before giving up a four-point play to Elliot Cadeau with 4 seconds left. Markus Burton, in his first game back from an injury, missed a layup and the Irish lost by one.

The collapse was perhaps worse at N.C. State on Wednesday night. The Irish led by seven with 3½ minutes left; they didn’t score in the final two minutes and ended the game by giving up five straight points to lose by one. Burton, again, missed a shot on the final possession.

It’s not like ND’s game at Duke is expected to be a one-possession game; it’s just interesting to see how the Irish responds after two back-breaking losses.

EvanMiya lineup note: Variety at the top of 3-man lineups.

We’re looking at Duke’s top 10 three-man combinations, with a minimum of 50 possessions played together.

And we’re looking at how reliant Duke isn’t on just one player being a part of its best combos.

The top combination is Cooper Flagg, Mason Gillis and Khaman Maluach. When that trio has been on the court together, it’s plus-47 in just 62 offensive and 57 defensive possessions. The offensive efficiency is 1.23 ppp and the defensive efficiency is 0.53 ppp.

And the second combination is Gillis with Kon Knueppel and Tyrese Proctor. Scoring sees a major uptick (1.43 ppp) and defensive efficiency takes a hit (0.84) compared to the top combination.

So and so forth. The main takeaway is this: In these top 10 three-man combinations, Sion James and Gillis appear the most, and that’s six times each. Knueppel is in five of those top 10 combos, Maluach and Proctor are in four, Flagg is in three, and Maliq Brown and Isaiah Evans each appear in one.

Irish(man) to watch: Wing Braeden Shrewsberry (No. 11).

Because picking Burton would be too obvious.

Shrewsberry is also the player most likely to catch fire and create offensive problems for Duke. The 6-4, 200-pounder has made 36.6% of his 3s this season and is taking 8.2 per game.

His average jumps up to 44.7% against ACC competition. Shrewsberry was 6-for-11 on 3s in ND’s lone ACC win, with 25 points, against Syracuse back in December. He was 4-for-6 in a loss to Georgia Tech at the start of this three-game losing streak, and is 7-for-21 in the last two games combined.

Blue Devil to watch: Center Khaman Maluach (No. 9).

Duke’s big man might be on his way to a big scoring day.

Notre Dame doesn’t offer much resistance at the rim. The Irish’s block percentage is 10.4%, 259th in the country (KenPom). Opposing teams make 52.6% of their 2-point shots against ND. The only legitimate shot blocker for ND is Kebba Njie, and his block rate is 3.8 (for reference, Maluach’s block rate is 6.3% and Flagg’s is 6.6%).

Maluach is coming off an 11-point game against Pitt. He hasn’t scored in double figures in consecutive games since the second, third and fourth games of the season; here’s a bet that he hits 10-plus points again in this one.

And then, you’ll want to watch Maluach on the defensive end to see if Duke switches 1-through-5 with him again. That was the most-interesting wrinkle of the win over Pitt; Duke had been playing different defenses with Maluach, mostly keeping him confined to the paint to take advantage of his rim protection.

“Khaman, he’s a little bit of a unicorn, right?” Scheyer said. “You want to keep him at the rim to protect. But we’ve known from the beginning, like, he can move his feet now, too. Even if you get by him as a guard, even if you get a step, you still have a 7-2 guy that can move and has timing coming to chase after your shot.”

What’s on deck: Duke stays at home for a late-night game.

The Blue Devils play host to Miami at 9 p.m. Tuesday. The Hurricanes are hurting in the wake of Jim Larranaga’s sudden post-Christmas retirement, along with the fact that Nijel Pack has missed five straight games.

Notre Dame has a quick turnaround to a … peculiar first Monday night matchup of ACC teams this season. The Irish play host to Boston College two days after this game.

KenPom prediction: Duke wins 79-58.

Injury report: Duke should be good to go, barring something unforeseen. Proctor has been sick but it hasn’t stopped him from playing 32 minutes against SMU and 33 against Pitt.

Notre Dame has had Burton back for two games and has a couple of one-point losses to show for it. Last year’s ACC rookie of the year missed seven games because of a right knee injury; he had 23 points in a 74-73 loss to UNC last weekend and had 15 at N.C. State on Wednesday night, a 66-65 loss.

What a Duke loss looks like: The requirement here would seem to be twofold.

One, Duke would have to fall off a cliff offensively. The Blue Devils’ string of games with double-digit 3s and with an e-FG rate over 60% wouldn’t just end; they wouldn’t come close to those numbers.

Two, Duke would have to have one of its worst defensive games of the season to lose this one. Notre Dame has been much better offensively this season compared to last year, Micah Shrewsberry’s first in South Bend. So, it’s not all that farfetched that the Irish could hit shots at a high level.

It is farfetched that they’d do so against this Duke team, though.

What a Duke win looks like: Duke’s average margin of victory in five games against ACC teams is 23.2.

A Duke win will probably look something like that.

The Blue Devils’ combination of shooting prowess and being the best defensive team in the country has been lethal. It’s leading to blowouts and more so, it’s leading to a confident team that’s hitting its stride.

Requirements for a Duke win are pretty widespread. Even if the Blue Devils have a poor stretch offensively or defensively, the other side of the court has been good enough to carry them through such spells during the last several games.

There isn’t much of a reason to think that’ll stop happening with this game.