The first four games of the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off have been thrilling, including two games that went to overtime, a wild USA-Canada game that included three fights in the first nine seconds, and a level of play that is well beyond what some expected for an event that replaced the All-Star Game.
With two regulation victories, the United States has clinched a spot in the championship Thursday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN+). The other three teams remain alive for the other spot, which will be determined by Monday’s games.
Before we dive into the preview, here’s an updated look at the round-robin standings:
Who are the key players to watch? What are the most important statistics heading into this contest? Read on for all of that, plus betting intel courtesy of ESPN BET, and picks on the game from Victoria Matiash.
Finland vs.
Canada
Monday, 1 p.m. ET | TNT
TD Garden (Boston)
Betting intel
Money line: Canada -425 | Finland +320
Game spread: Canada -2.5 (+115) | Finland +2.5 (-135)
Total goals: Over 5.5 (-145) | Under 5.5 (+120)
Finland
Game results:
Feb. 13: USA 6, Finland 1
Feb. 15: Finland 4, Sweden 3 (OT)
Leading scorers:
Mikael Granlund (one goal, one assist), Olli Maatta (two assists), Patrik Laine (two assists)
0:55
Mikael Granlund scores OT winner for Finland
Mikael Granlund nets the winning goal for Finland in an epic overtime matchup vs. Sweden.
Canada
Game results:
Feb. 12: Canada 4, Sweden 3 (OT)
Feb. 15: USA 3, Canada 1
Leading scorers:
Sidney Crosby (three assists), Connor McDavid (one goal, one assist), eight tied with one point
Picks for the game
Sidney Crosby anytime pointscorer (-220): Time and time again, the sport’s very best tend to show up in the biggest games. Requiring a regulation win to secure a spot in Thursday’s final against the Americans, this is as huge as it gets for Team Canada. After earning three primary assists and being named the first star against Sweden, Crosby not only failed to dent the scoresheet (minus-2) in Saturday’s epic tilt with the United States, but also committed the giveaway that led to Dylan Larkin‘s winner.
“Obviously, it’s a game of mistakes, and I turn one over there and it ends up in the back of the net. It’s as quick as that. Just little plays here and there,” Crosby told reporters after the game.
Whatever the final result in Monday’s matinee — and Canada is considered a substantial -425 favorite — it feels unlikely that the country’s most clutch performer for a generation will fail to contribute at least a single helper against Finland. Up until Saturday, Cosby had won 26 straight games representing his home and native land in international competition while averaging more than a point per game.
Mark Stone to record 3-plus shots (+230): Sticking with the “big players show up in big games” motif, the Vegas captain also fits that bill. Stone fired a trio of shots on net versus Sweden and a team-high three in Saturday’s defeat to the Americans. If the Finns surrender another 30 or so shots as they did versus the United States (32), I like Stone to account for a tenth of them, at minimum. Again, even if Canada comes out on the wrong end of this must-win game, the vets are going to go down swinging. — Victoria Matiash
United States vs.
Sweden
Monday, 8 p.m. ET | TNT
TD Garden (Boston)
Betting intel
Money line: USA -200 | Sweden +170
Game spread: USA -1.5 (+130) | Sweden +1.5 (-155)
Total goals: Over 5.5 (-135) | Under 5.5 (+115)
United States
Game results:
Feb. 13: USA 6, Finland 1
Feb. 15: USA 3, Canada 1
Leading scorers:
Jake Guentzel (three goals, one assist), Zach Werenski (four assists), Matthew Tkachuk (two goals, one assist), Matt Boldy (one goal, two assists), Jack Eichel (three assists)
Sweden
Game results:
Feb. 12: Canada 4, Sweden 3 (OT)
Feb. 15: Finland 4, Sweden 3 (OT)
Leading scorers:
Lucas Raymond (three assists), Erik Karlsson (one goal, one assist), Joel Eriksson Ek (one goal, one assist)
Pick for the game
Chris Kreider anytime goal scorer (+475): In a game that won’t mean anything for the United States in terms of getting through to the final — and could also carry zero weight for Sweden, if Canada wins in regulation — there’s one particular player who should nonetheless feel inspired to make a productive impact. After failing to make the lineup for the first two contests, Kreider projects to sub in for Matthew Tkachuk, who could use the extra rest after getting banged up Saturday. If so, the Boston College alumnus will feel extra jazzed to contribute in front of the pro-American crowd at TD Garden, which stands about 25 miles down the road from where he grew up.
