Louisville Cardinals (20-7, 9-5) at North Carolina Tar Heels (21-6, 9-5)
Game Time: 7 p.m.
Location: Dean E. Smith Center: Chapel Hill, N.C.
Television: ESPN
Announcers: Dave O’Brien (play-by-play), Jay Williams (analysis), and Molly McGrath (sideline)
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Favorite: Louisville by 2.5
Series: North Carolina leads, 20-8
Last Meeting: Louisville won 83-70 on Jan. 1, 2025 in Louisville
Series History:
Projected Starting Lineups:
Louisville
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G Mikel Brown Jr. (6-5, 190, Fr.)
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G Isaac McKneely (6-4, 195, Sr.)
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G Ryan Conwell (6-4, 215, Sr.)
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F J’Vonne Hadley (6-7, 210, Sr.)
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C Sananda Fru (6-11, 245, Jr.)
North Carolina
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G Seth Trimble (6-3, 200, Sr.)
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G Derek Dixon (6-5, 200, Fr.)
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G Luka Bogavac (6-6, 215, Jr.)
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F Jarin Stevenson (6-10, 215, Jr.)
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C Henri Veesaar (7-0, 225, Jr.)
Injury Reports:
Statistics:
North Carolina’s Season to Date:
Relevant Videos:
About North Carolina:
Two weeks ago, the North Carolina Tar Heels couldn’t have been riding higher. Hubert Davis’ team had just stunned arch-rival Duke at the buzzer, a win that marked its fifth straight and improved the team to 19-4 overall on the season.
A day later, everything changed.
Not only did the Heels suffer a “hangover” loss at Miami, but they lost freshman star Caleb Wilson to a fractured left hand. While Wilson has repeatedly stated that he’ll return to the court this season, he hasn’t played in UNC’s last three games, and he won’t play Monday night against Louisville. Carolina has gone 2-1 without their superstar, but those two wins were over Pitt and Syracuse, and the loss was to NC State by 24 points — the Heels’ largest margin of defeat against the Wolfpack since 1962.
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Even without Wilson, No. 18 North Carolina is a formidable opponent for a myriad reasons, not the least of which being how strong they’ve been at home this season. UNC enters Monday night with an unblemished 15-0 mark inside the Dean Dome.
It should also be noted that the loss to NC State came on a night where second-leading scorer and rebounder Henri Veesaar (16.5 ppg/8.8 rpg) also didn’t play. Veesaar returned to the lineup for Saturday’s game against Syracuse and promptly turned in a 19-point effort. He’s listed as “probable” for Monday night’s contest.
Veesaar, a native of Estonia who played two seasons at Arizona before transferring to North Carolina, arrived in Chapel Hill with a “dunks and threes” guy reputation. While he can certainly do both of those things — he’s the only player in the country with 40 or more dunks and 30 or more three-pointers — the 7-footer has proven to have a bit of a deeper bag than that. He has great feet in the post and can score effectively with either hand, he’s a capable passer as well as a guy who’s comfortable putting the ball on the floor, he’s made exactly one three-pointer in nine straight games and is shooting 44.3 percent from three on the season, and he’s also a solid interior defender who’s blocking 1.3 shots per game.
Yet another player who has missed time with injury this season is third leading scorer Seth Trimble (13.3 ppg). The fourth-year Tar Heel missed nine games near the beginning of the season after suffering a broken left forearm from a weight lifting accident in November. Trimble is a capable scorer who does his best work inside the three-point line, but his primary reputation has always been as a defensive star. He’ll be tasked with helping to slow down both Mikel Brown Jr. and Ryan Conwell.
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The player who has seen the biggest increase in workload since Wilson’s injury has been 6’5 freshman guard Derek Dixon (5.7 ppg). While Wilson’s scoring hasn’t increased dramatically, his assist numbers have. While being asked to be the offense’s primary initiator, Dixon has responded with 13 assists against four turnovers over the last three games.
Fellow freshman Luka Bogavac (9.9 ppg) is the other big threat on this team. The native of Montenegro is not afraid to let it fly, attempting about five threes per game despite averaging 20 minutes of court time. Reserves Jonathan Powell, Zayden High and Kyan Evans are also threats from the outside.
Carolina is playing at a significantly slower tempo this season than pretty much every UNC team of the modern era. They do a great job at taking care of the ball and scoring around the rim, but have struggled more with their three-point shooting (although they’re taking more than ever) and offensive rebounding than most Tar Heel teams before them. It’s also notable that UNC is the worst free-throw shooting team in the ACC, shooting it at just 68.6 percent collectively from the stripe.
Defensively, UNC has defended the rim extremely well, but has struggled more with perimeter defense. The Heels don’t force many turnovers and, due in part to that lack of gambling, are the fourth-best team in the country at keeping their opponents off the free-throw line.
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Notable:
—Louisville has never beaten North Carolina twice in a row. The Cardinals won the most recent meeting between the two teams last season at the Yum Center.
—North Carolina is 15-0 at home so far this season.
—North Carolina is 6-1 against Louisville in games played in Chapel Hill.
—Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey is 176-68 (.721) all-time conference games as a head coach; he holds an 81-41 (.664) record in league road games.
—UNC will be wearing pregame warm-up shirts designed by students at Hargraves Community Center in Chapel Hill. The team visited Hargraves in January and worked with students to design the shirts on tablets given to the center by Lenovo.
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—Louisville is 11-0 on Saturday this season, and just 9-7 in games played on any other day of the week.
—Because of travel problems caused by the winter storm this weekend in the northeast U.S., North Carolina’s planned halftime ceremony honoring R.J. Davis has been postponed. Davis’ No. 4 has been raised to the rafters and he will be honored at a later date.
—Pat Kelsey is 1-2 in his career in games against North Carolina, but 1-0 at U of L.
—Hubert Davis is 4-1 as a head coach in games against Louisville.
—North Carolina head coach Hubert Davis is the first men’s basketball coach in ACC history to win 20 or more game in each of his first five seasons.
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—North Carolina’s Henri Veesaar leads the ACC and is 16th in the country with 13 double-doubles.
—Louisville is 2-5 against ranked opponents so far this season, and 0-3 against ranked opponents from the ACC.
—Louisville is 0-4 in road games against ranked opponents under head coach Pat Kelsey.
—Louisville’s last road win against a top 25 opponent was a 79-73 win at No. 3 Duke on Jan. 18, 2020.
—Since that win over the Blue Devils, Louisville has lost 10 consecutive road games against top 25 opponents.
—Louisville is one of three DI teams with at least six victories of 40 points or more this season, joining Michigan (7) and High Point (6). The six 40+ point wins are the most UofL has ever had in a single season.
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—UNC is 11-0 this season and 56-4 under Hubert Davis when holding opponents under 40% from the floor and 0-4 this season and 6-19 under Davis when the opponents make 50%.
—Louisville has hit the 100-point mark six times in a season for the first time ever.
—Louisville is one of four programs that has logged at least three games of 18+ made 3’s, joining Cornell (4), Charleston Southern (3) and VMI (3).
—Louisville is 47-0 under head coach Pat Kelsey when leading with five minutes to play. The Cardinals are also 0-14 under Kelsey when trailing with five minutes to play.
—Louisville is currently 14th in the country in scoring margin at +15.0 points per game.
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—Louisville is 0-9 under head coach Pat Kelsey when trailing by 5 points or more at halftime.
—Louisville is 14-0 over the past 11 seasons when limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.
—Louisville is 122-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.
—Louisville has won 167 consecutive games when holding an opponent under 50 points.
Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville 81, North Carolina 80
