The SEC decided to retain the Florida football-LSU rivalry for at least two more years after scrapping divisions when it expanded to 16 teams in 2024.
When the Florida Gators (4-5, 2-4 SEC) host the No. 22 Tigers (6-3, 3-2 SEC) at The Swamp on Saturday (3:30 p.m., ABC), the matchup will feature two reeling teams in desperate need of a win.
Both Florida and LSU have lost two in a row, with the Gators coming off a 49-17 loss at Texas and the Tigers coming off a 42-13 home loss to No. 9 Alabama.
Florida football coach Billy Napier and LSU coach Brian Kelly are both in their third seasons at their respective programs, with Kelly holding a 2-0 edge in the head-to-head matchups.
“LSU, as usual, has a good football team,” Napier said. “I think they’re talented. Had their ups and downs throughout the season. Coach Kelly runs a good program.”
Both teams have something to play for. LSU can still reach the SEC title game with three straight wins. Florida, meanwhile, needs to win two of its last three to become bowl eligible.
Napier, who coached four seasons at Louisiana from 2018-21 before being hired at UF, is aware of the problems that LSU presents from a speed and athleticism standpoint.
“A ton of athletes in that state,” Napier said. “Having spent four years there, recruited five years at Alabama, recruited that state, very familiar with that place, has a ton of history and tradition, and certainly multiple coaches that have won national championships. So you know you’re going to be going against elite talent and obviously a well-coached team with BK,
Here are five storylines to watch for Florida to watch in its game against the Tigers:
How much will the return of Florida football QB DJ Lagway, WR Elijhah Badger spark the offense
Napier announced the return of Lagway and Badger on his radio show on WRUF on Thursday night. Last week, UF struggled with Aidan Warner at quarterback, turning the ball over three times while generating just 125 yards of passing offense. Lagway (1.071 yards passing, 6 TDs, 5 interceptions) and Badger (24 catches, 560 yards, 2 TDs) should give UF’s passing offense a boost. Given the nature of Lagway’s hamstring injury, it would be surprising to see UF call too many designed runs for him, though LSU’s defense has been susceptible to mobile quarterbacks.
Can Florida football’s banged up secondary bounce back from a woeful performance at Texas?
Florida surrendered 352 yards through the air and five passing touchdowns last week against the Longhorns, Communication breakdowns in the back end of the defense led to some of the TDs.
“What happened this weekend is not acceptable,” Napier said. “It’s not good enough. We certainly know we’re capable of playing better. And, look, we’re trying to control the things that we can control. Our communication, our alignment, our fundamentals and techniques, playing with the right leveraging coverage, our effort and pursuit, and then ultimately playing really good situationally football and making good decisions.
UF’s secondary remains banged up, with its top three corners (Jason Marshall Jr., Devin Moore and Ja’Keem Jackson) out, along with safety Asa Turner. LSU boasts the SEC’s second-best passing offense at 322.3 yards per game. LSU lost standout skill players Jayden Daniels (quarterback), Malik Nabors (wide receiver) and Brian Thomas Jr. (wide receiver) to the NFL last season, but replaced them with strong-armed quarterback Garrett Nussmeier (2,866 yards, 21 TDs, 11 interceptions), wide receiver Kyren Lacy (46 catches, 697 yards, 7 TDs), tight end Mason Taylor (43 catches, 491 yards, 2 TDs) and running back Caden Durham
“The tight ends, one of the better tight ends in the country, and certainly the backs, freshman back has elite track speed,” Napier said. “So, the combination of skill with the veteran quarterback; although he hasn’t been the starter before, he’s played a lot of football, and he’s been around there for a while.”
Can the Florida football defense force LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier into some mistakes
Nussmeier has posted an TD-to-interception ratio of 8 to 9 over his last five games. Florida’s nine interceptions rank fifth in the SEC as the Gators have been more opportunistic taking away the ball this season.
“Obviously they had an injury or two on the offensive line,” Napier said. “I don’t know if that’s a factor or not, but I do think they played good teams with good rushers.”
It’s a homecoming game of sorts for Nussmeier, who played a season at Buchholz High in Gainesville when his father, Doug Nussmeier, was the offensive coordinator at UF.
“Great high school player,” Napier said. “I can remember evaluating him coming out. Incredibly productive, Scrappy coach’s son that has a great feel for the game. Waited his turn, which is respectable in my opinion. Now, obviously leading their team and has done a good job of that.”
Can Florida football complement QB DJ Lagway’s return with a strong run game
Florida has had success of late running the football with the one-two tandem of Ja’Kobi Jackson and Jadan Baugh. UF running back Montrell Johnson Jr. remains questionable with a leg injury. LSU ranks 14th in the SEC in rushing defense (150.8 ypg allowed) though has been victimized more by mobile quarterbacks than running backs.
UF’s offensive line, which has played more physical as of late, has allowed its backs to generate 4.3 yards per carry on the season.
“It’s a fun game when you run the ball a lot,” Florida left tackle Austin Barber said. “I think we take pride in that here, is running the ball and if we continue to do what we do, it’s going to be fun.”
Can Florida football get off to a better start in its return to The Swamp
Florida fell behind 42-0 at Texas last week and didn’t score its first points until a field goal in the third quarter as UF squandered red zone scoring opportunities in the first half. The Gators should be energized by returning to The Swamp, where they haven’t played since Oct. 19 after posting back-to-back home wins over UCF and Kentucky in October.
UF defensive lineman TJ Searcy said he’s looking forward to playing in front of home fans.
“I appreciate all the love and support they been giving us,” Searcy said. “Just continue. You know, we’re going to get right soon.”
Prediction
Florida 27, LSU 24: Florida’s offense will receive jolt with the return of Lagway and Badger and its defense will bounce back from its no-show performance last week against Texas, propelling the Gators to an upset win.
Kevin Brockway is The Gainesville Sun’s Florida beat writer. Contact him at kbrockway@gannett.com. Follow him on X @KevinBrockwayG1
This article originally appeared on The Gainesville Sun: Scouting report, prediction for Florida football matchup with No. 22 LSU
