Racing Insights: The ‘Great American Race’ is always worth the wait

And we’re back.

Finally, haulers are unloading, garages are open and excitement is building for Sunday’s 2025 Daytona 500 (2:30 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN Radio, Sirius XM NASCAR Radio). After an off-season filled with bonanza movement across the Cup garage, this year‘s talent pool set for the traditional 500 miler — and the next nine months — is about as stacked as possible. The stakes are even higher across each of the next 36 point-paying races with new competition rules and schedule changes in place.

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But before all of that, drivers will have to tackle the task of 200 laps over the high banks at the “World Center of Racing.” Legends have been made in this race, and winning a crown-jewel event of this magnitude forever cements a driver and team in the history books.

As for the numbers, here‘s a little look at what they point to when determining a winner:

For starters, in six of the last seven Daytona 500s, the eventual winner started 10th or worse. Eight of the previous 10 500s were won by drivers getting their first triumph in the “Great American Race,” with the exception of Denny Hamlin both times. Finally, the eventual winner didn‘t lead until Lap 157 or later in seven of the last eight races, and four of the previous nine ended with a last-lap pass.

So what do those stats tell us? Well, to come out on top in the chase for the Harley J. Earl Trophy, drivers will have to be patient. During the action-packed weekend of qualifying, duel races and extended practice sessions, pressure is building for every competitor, as it becomes a mission to not only survive Speedweeks but also to perform well enough to have a decent starting spot on Sunday’s grid. More importantly, drivers will have to be methodical in how they navigate a jam-packed field on race day. Time and time again, we’ve seen moments of brilliance and greatness develop in the latter half of this race, so it’s hard to count anyone out of contention.

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DRIVERS TO WATCH

KYLE BUSCH: Rowdy‘s 20-year frustration mirrors another RCR driver waiting for his first Daytona 500 win. Among active full-time drivers, Busch has the most starts in the 500 without a win. Daytona glory aside, let’s also not forget Busch is still on a winless streak that has ballooned up to 57 races. If he’s due a win, it could come in the grandest way possible. Racing Insights’ early metric is also giving Busch a slight edge over Christopher Bell for the win, so maybe the No. 8 crew puts in a lucky penny or two just for good measure.

WILLIAM BYRON: You rarely see drivers win back-to-back Daytona 500s, only four drivers have done it and Hamlin was the most recent in 2019-20. However, when you look at how superior Byron has been on drafting tracks in the Next Gen era and the fact Racing Insights has him projected third, a back-to-back triumph is definitely in the cards for Byron.

BUBBA WALLACE: Speaking of superspeedway prowess, Wallace has two top fives in this race over the last three years. He does have a new crew chief sitting atop the pit box, so time will tell how he meshes with Charles Denike. But being second fastest in the first practice session of the week is a promising sign that the No. 23 crew should be in the mix for the win.

JUSTIN HALEY: NASCAR.com has been embedded with Spire Motorsports leading up to Daytona, and Haley is an intriguing prospect behind the wheel of the No. 7 Chevy. He has a Daytona win that came in summer 2019 in a rain-shortened event, and his talent on superspeedways has steadily progressed each year. The “not-so-secret-weapon” Haley has in his corner? That would be the new crew chief at Spire Rodney Childers, who has begun planting the seeds for a winning culture to grow at Spire.

HÉLIO CASTRONEVES: Trackhouse Racing’s Project 91 entry is back with a bang. Four-time Indianapolis 500 winner Castroneves knows a thing or two about executing in the clutch, which makes him an intriguing driver to follow this weekend. The 49-year-old wheelman from Brazil will be in Sunday’s main event regardless of how he performs in duels, and given his resume in motorsports he — without a doubt — has the chops to join AJ Foyt and Mario Andretti as the only drivers to win both the Indy 500 and Daytona 500.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE 67TH DAYTONA 500

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.