Follow all of Saturday’s NCAA Tournament second round games with USA TODAY Sports’ live updates.
Day 1 of the 2026 Men’s NCAA Tournament provided college basketball fans with upsets. Day 2 was all chalk.
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Now that the second round of March Madness has arrived, what will fans get on Saturday, March 21 and Sunday, March 22? We saw a couple of No. 1 seeds tested in the opening round, while the others cruised to victory.
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We also saw some injuries in the first two days that could impact the rest of the tournament. Could Otega Oweh’s first-round performance give Kentucky a shot in the arm to make a deep tournament run?
With four double-digit seeds in action in the Round of 32, could we see one of them squeeze their way into the Sweet 16? Here’s a look at the five most likely upsets for the 2026 NCAA Tournament:
1. No. 7 Kentucky over No. 2 Iowa State
Why it could happen: Four words. Two players. Otega Oweh. Joshua Jefferson. Oweh is coming off a career-high performance with 35 points, while Jefferson suffered an ankle sprain minutes into the Cyclones’ win over Tennessee State. If Jefferson is our hindered, who will step up for the second-leading scorer and leading rebounder?
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Why it won’t happen: Kentucky has proven to be inconsistent this season. The way the Wildcats won against Santa Clara could be the spark for the team to make a run. Or it’s just another blip on the radar for a team that’s spent a lot on its roster for inconsistent play.
2. No. 7 UCLA over No. 2 UConn
Why it could happen: If not for a heroic effort from Tarris Reed Jr. (31 points, 27 rebounds), UConn would have been knocked out in the opening round by No. 15 Furman. Couple that with losses to Marquette and St. John’s in the final four games, and the Huskies look vulnerable. The Bruins looked dominant against UCF, until the final minutes.
Why it won’t happen: UConn is UConn and Dan Hurley gives them a shot. As does Reed, who was one of USA TODAY’s potential breakout players to watch ahead of the NCAA Tournament. The question is, do the Bruins have an answer for him? We’ll have to find out.
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3. No. 11 Texas over No. 3 Gonzaga
Why it could happen: Gonzaga struggled putting Kennesaw State away on Thursday, and looks susceptible to a potential upset. Texas, meanwhile, seemed to cruise to victory over No. 6 BYU and talented freshman AJ Dybantsa. Could the Longhorns have found their footing?
Why it won’t happen: Texas lost five of its last six games heading into the NCAA Tournament, while Gonzaga lost three games all season. Yes, the NCAA Tournament is a reset, but the regular season matters, too.
4. No. 9 Saint Louis over No. 1 Michigan
Why it could happen: Saint Louis arguably had the most impressive win of the first round, beating Georgia 102-77, which is not even indicative of the 40-point lead it once held. With Yaxel Lendeborg dealing with an ankle issue, the Billikens can apply pressure early and potentially have a shot to knock out a No. 1 seed.
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Why it won’t happen: Michigan is elite. The regular season proved that, and Dusty May has brought his program very far in just two years of leading it. Lendeborg, if healthy, is the best player on the court, and that helps in March when the pressure begins to build.
5. No. 9 Iowa over No. 1 Florida
Why it could happen: Florida’s Achilles’ heel could be its guard play. The Gators were exposed a little by Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament. Iowa is led by AP All-American Honorable Mention Bennett Stirtz, who could cause problems for Boogie Fland and Xavien Lee to defend. The Hawkeyes play slow and can win if they dictate the pace.
Why it won’t happen: The Gators are coming off one of the most dominant wins in NCAA Tournament history. Iowa cannot match up with Florida’s big men, giving the Gators the opportunity for several second-chance plays. Ultimately, Florida is more talented and deeper than Iowa.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness upset predictions: Ranking most likely second round surprises
