Ranking Big Ten March Madness teams by title chances

The Big Ten Conference tied its record by sending nine teams to this year’s NCAA Men’s Tournament, just one behind the SEC’s ten bids in 2026. Still, the league is chasing its first national title since 2000, when the Michigan State Spartans, led by Tom Izzo, cut down the nets. With nine teams in the field this year, all seeded nine or better, the question is simple: can the Big Ten finally break through and win it all?

Here is how the conference stacks up heading into March, ranked by each team’s chances to make a title run.

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Iowa lands on the nine line after an early exit in the Big Ten Tournament at the hands of the Ohio State Buckeyes, setting up a first-round matchup with the always dangerous Clemson Tigers. The Hawkeyes are powered by senior guard Bennett Stirtz, who averaged 20 points per game while shooting close to 38 percent from three this season. He is the engine behind everything Iowa does offensively, and if the Hawkeyes are going to string together wins, it will likely take a special, legacy-type run from him.

Ohio State is one of the more intriguing teams in the field. Just a few weeks ago, they looked like they were on the outside of the tournament picture, but a late surge changed everything. They picked up key wins, including a big one over the Purdue Boilermakers, and pushed the Michigan Wolverines in the conference tournament.

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Their ceiling is still somewhat unknown, but they have a player built for March in senior guard Bruce Thornton. He became Ohio State’s all-time leading scorer this season and averaged 20.2 points while logging heavy minutes every night. He is the kind of veteran presence who can carry a team through tough stretches in this tournament.

The path, however, is brutal. A first-round matchup with the TCU Horned Frogs is no guarantee, and even if they advance, a likely showdown with the Duke Blue Devils looms in the round of 32. Ohio State will need its best stretch of basketball all season, along with meaningful bench production, something that has been inconsistent, to have any chance of making a real run.

Head coach Mick Cronin might be one of the most visibly frustrated coaches in the country this season. From his run-ins with the media to the moment he ejected one of his own players during a blowout loss to Michigan State Spartans in February, to his constant battles with officials, it has been a year full of tension. Still, the one thing that has never been in question is his ability to coach.

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Cronin has now reached 15 NCAA Tournament appearances in 22 seasons, and his track record in March speaks for itself. He led UCLA to the Final Four in 2021, followed that with Sweet 16 runs in 2022 and 2023, and picked up another tournament win last season before falling to the two-seed Tennessee Volunteers. Regardless of how you feel about his style, he consistently has his teams prepared when it matters most.

The draw does UCLA no favors. The East region is loaded, and the path forward is anything but easy. Still, if the Bruins can tighten things up defensively and improve on the glass, two areas that have been inconsistent all year, they have the potential to cause problems.

And if they do end up matching up with the UConn Huskies in the round of 32, it could turn into must-see television. A sideline battle between Cronin and Dan Hurley would bring plenty of intensity, and probably have the officials working overtime.

Nebraska is one of the more unique teams in this field. On the surface, the résumé looks strong. Just six losses in the regular season and a second-place finish in the Big Ten are nothing to overlook. But once you dig a little deeper, some concerns start to stand out.

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Their last win over a ranked opponent came back on January 2, a narrow home victory over the Michigan State Spartans. And then there is the history that is hard to ignore. Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game, sitting at 0–8 all-time, making them the only Power Five program still searching for that first breakthrough. That kind of track record does not exactly inspire confidence when projecting a deep run.

At the same time, this is not the same Nebraska team as years past, and streaks are made to be broken. The roster construction is solid, highlighted by the addition of four contributing transfers, and they have been consistent on both ends of the floor throughout the season.

A deep run still feels like a stretch, but this group looks capable of finally getting over the hump and picking up that first tournament win. After that, a potential matchup with a red-hot Vanderbilt Commodores team in the second round could prove to be a tough stopping point.

These Wisconsin Badgers are just flat out fun to watch, and if not for their spot in the bracket, I would have them ranked even higher. They truly live and die by the three-point shot. When it is falling, they can beat just about anyone in the country. When it is not, things tend to unravel quickly. In all but two of their losses this season, Wisconsin shot 34 percent or worse from beyond the arc, which tells you everything about how this team operates. The big question is whether they can stay hot from deep across multiple games in a row.

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The strength of this team starts in the backcourt. Wisconsin might have one of the best guard duos in the entire field with Nick Boyd and John Blackwell leading the way. They averaged 20.6 and 19 points per game, giving the Badgers experienced, high-volume scorers who are not afraid of the moment. That kind of upperclassman guard play is often exactly what you need to make a deep run in March.

The path, though, is brutal. A likely second-round matchup with the SEC conference champ Arkansas Razorbacks, presents a major challenge, and if they get through that, a showdown with the one-seed Arizona Wildcats in the Sweet 16 could be waiting. It is not an easy road by any means, but this is absolutely a team worth keeping an eye on.

4. Illinois Fighting Illini (3 seed)

Maybe this is a bit of a hot take, but I’m just not fully sold on this Illinois Fighting Illini team. The talent is undeniable. You have freshman standout Keaton Wagler, who looks like a likely NBA lottery pick this summer, Montenegro freshman David Mirkovic, California Golden Bears transfer Andrej Stojakovic, and senior guard Kylan Boswell. On paper, that is a loaded group.

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But when you look at how they’ve performed in big moments, especially recently, it raises some concerns. This is the tallest team in the country, with an average height of around 6 feet 8, and they also landed one of the most favorable draws in the bracket. They open against Penn Quakers, then likely face a banged-up North Carolina Tar Heels squad missing Caleb Wilson or an 11-seed VCU Rams team. It is hard to ask for a much better path through the first weekend.

Still, March is all about how you are playing right now, and Illinois has not exactly been trending in the right direction. An overtime loss to the UCLA Bruins, a blowout home loss to Michigan Wolverines, expected wins over non-tournament teams like Oregon Ducks and Maryland Terrapins, and then an early exit in the Big Ten Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers is not exactly inspiring.

The path is there for a run, no doubt about it, but the recent form leaves some real questions about how far they can actually go.

As mentioned earlier, Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans were the last Big Ten team to win a national title back in 2000. The question now is whether Izzo can get this group ready for another deep March run and make lightning strike twice. It will not be easy, especially given where they landed in the bracket.

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Like the UCLA Bruins and the Ohio State Buckeyes, Michigan State finds itself in the region from hell known as the East. They open against North Dakota State Bison, then could see either Louisville or USF, with a likely matchup against the two-seed UConn Huskies looming after that. It is not exactly a friendly path, but this is a team that has been tested all season.

Michigan State plays with pace on offense, defends at a high level, and crashes the glass as well as anyone in the country. Sophomore guard Jeremy Fears Jr has been the engine, leading the nation in assists at 9.2 per game while also scoring close to 16 points a night. Around him, the Spartans rely on experienced upperclassmen who consistently contribute double figures, giving them a balanced and steady attack.

It is a formula that typically translates well in March. Strong guard play, veteran leadership, physical defense, and a coach who has been through it all. Michigan State checks every one of those boxes. The one concern is perimeter shooting. The Spartans rank just 140th nationally in three-point percentage at 34.8 percent and are near the bottom of the country in attempts per game. That could become an issue against elite teams.

Still, this group has the makeup of a team that can make a real run, even if the road in front of them is as tough as it gets.

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2. Purdue Boilermakers (2 seed)

Purdue looked like it was in real trouble just a few weeks ago, trending in the wrong direction with losses to Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. Then, almost out of nowhere, everything flipped. Purdue caught fire in the Big Ten Tournament, ripping off four straight wins and looking like a completely different team, knocking off top-ranked Nebraska and Michigan on the way to a conference title.

That said, there are still some real flaws. Defensively, this is not an elite group. They are giving up over 70 points per game, and against the better teams in the Big Ten, that number has jumped into the 80s and even 90s in some of their losses. That is not a formula that usually holds up over multiple rounds in March, especially when the offense is unlikely to keep humming at the same 83 points per game pace they maintained during the regular season.

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Still, winning the conference tournament was massive for their confidence, and the selection committee did them a favor with this draw. Landing in the West region sets up a manageable path early, starting with the Queens Royals in round one, followed by either the Miami Hurricanes or the Missouri Tigers in the second round. From there, a potential Sweet 16 matchup with the Gonzaga Bulldogs looms, a team that has historically struggled against Purdue, going 0–5 all-time in the matchup.

Senior All-American guard Braden Smith is the driving force behind everything Purdue does offensively. He ranks second in the country in assists and has proven he can take over games when it matters most. Purdue is not without its issues, but with the way they are playing right now and the path in front of them, this is a team that absolutely has the potential to make a run.

As much as it pains me to say it, this Michigan Wolverines team might have what it takes to win it all. Losing guard L.J. Cason to an ACL injury a few weeks ago is a real blow, but it feels like the reaction to that loss has been a bit over the top when it comes to writing off Michigan’s title chances.

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The strength of this team starts in the frontcourt. The trio of Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr., and Aday Mara, all transfer additions, has been as good as any group in the country. They impact the game on both ends and have consistently created matchup problems all season. That kind of size, versatility, and production is tough to deal with in a tournament setting.

The backcourt is not lacking either. Elliot Cadeau and Tre McKenny both hover around 10 points per game and are capable shot creators. Cason, who was averaging 8.6 points, brought physical scoring and another ball handler to the mix, but Michigan still has depth behind him. Senior guards Nimari Burnett and Roddy Gayle Jr., who averaged 8.3 and 7 points, respectively, now step into bigger roles. They will need to elevate their play, but they are more than capable of doing it.

Michigan checks just about every box you want in a national title contender. They rank inside the top 40 in defensive efficiency and top 25 in offensive efficiency, have experienced scorers leading the way, and are coached by Dusty May, who has proven he can win in March. They also shoot it well from deep at 36 percent on the season, which puts them among the better teams nationally, and their path through the bracket is favorable.

They open with Howard Bison, then likely see either Georgia Bulldogs or Saint Louis Billikens. Beyond that, a matchup with a banged-up Texas Tech Red Raiders or an Alabama Crimson Tide team missing key production could be waiting.

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At the end of the day, it comes down to the guards. Can someone step up and fill the void left by Cason? If that answer is yes, it is hard not to see Michigan making a serious push to cut down the nets in a few weeks.

This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: Power ranking the Big Ten title contenders in the NCAA Tournament