The road to the Women’s Final Four in Phoenix begins this week with the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
This isn’t a year in which bettors should put money on the field over the blue bloods, but there might be some teams that will make a surprising run.
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Here’s a breakdown with favorites and upset predictions.
Top seeds: Connecticut (Regional 1/Fort Worth), UCLA (Regional 2/Sacramento), Texas (Regional 3/Fort Worth), South Carolina (Regional 4/Sacramento).
Can UConn be stopped in Regional 1?
Can anyone defeat the Connecticut Huskies (34-0), who have held the No. 1 spot in the USA Today poll for 28 straight weeks? UConn, led by Player of the Year finalists Azzie Fudd and Sarah Strong, is the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed. If the Huskies add to their NCAA-record 12 national titles, they could become women’s college hoops’ first repeat champion since going undefeated to cap off their fourth straight title in 2016. Known for its full-court pressure defense and high-powered offense, UConn routs opponents by 38.4 points per game.
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Vanderbilt (Regional 1 surprise champion): The Commodores (27-4) are Regional 1’s second seed, led by the Player of the Year candidate and the nation’s leading scorer, Mikayla Blakes (27.0 points per game). They started the season 20-0, finished 3-1 against top 10-ranked opponents, including wins over Louisiana State, Texas and Michigan. In addition, Vanderbilt coach Shea Ralph is a former UConn standout player and was a longtime assistant on Geno Auriemma’s coaching staff. Clearly, the NCAA Tournament’s selection committee wanted this mentor-versus-protégé storyline for UConn and Vanderbilt to meet in the Elite Eight.
UCLA’s tough road in Regional 2
The Bruins (31-1) are playing with a vengeance this season, after they were smoked by UConn in last year’s national semifinals. This could be the year that UCLA coach Cari Close wins her first national title. UCLA has the nation’s second-best record behind UConn and enters the tournament on a 25-game win streak. They cruised in Big Ten Conference play at 18-0 and won the championship over Michigan. UCLA is led by Player of the Year candidate Lauren Betts, point guard Kiki Rice, breakout performer Gabriela Jaquez on the wing, 3-point gunner and Utah transfer Gianna Kneepkens, Charlisse Leger-Walker, and their top reserve in 6-foot-4 forward Angela Dugalić. The Bruins are second in the nation in rebounding margin (14.9) and assists per game (22.5). But UCLA might have the toughest gauntlet to get to Phoenix. Duke, LSU, Mississippi, Texas Tech, Minnesota and Princeton, all ranked in the latest Top 25 poll, are in Regional 2.
Minnesota (Regional 2 surprise team): The No. 4 seed Gophers (22-8) could be the sleeper, after winning 10 of their last 12 games in Big Ten play. They had a nine-game win streak from Jan. 22 to Feb. 18, including key wins against Regional 1’s third seed Ohio State, Regional 4’s second seed Iowa, and Nebraska during that stretch. Minnesota isn’t careless with the basketball, which could help in the first two rounds.
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Regional 3 belongs to Texas
The Longhorns coach, Vic Shaefer, loves to be theatrical, throwing off his suit jacket while screaming at officials early in the game. His team, Regional 3’s top seed Texas, is just as entertaining to watch. Player of the Year candidate and junior forward Madison Booker, one of the nation’s top playmakers in senior point guard Rori Harmon and Jordan Lee lead this squad that finished 31-3. The Longhorns’ losses were to SEC foes Vanderbilt, LSU and South Carolina, but they enter the tournament hot on an eight-game win streak, including their SEC tournament championship win over South Carolina.
North Carolina State (Regional 3 sleeper): Gilbert Perry product and NC State forward Khamil Pierre is one of the nation’s more underrated players. The Vanderbilt transfer is tied for third in the nation with 21 double-doubles, ninth in total rebounds and fifth in scoring (16.8 points per game) in the ACC. Pierre’s work on the glass heavily contributes to NC State being one of the nation’s best rebounding teams, particularly on the defensive end. If they can do that against No. 10 Tennessee and No. 2 Michigan in the first and second rounds and stay out of foul trouble, the Wolfpack have a shot at the Sweet 16.
South Carolina has one SEC challenger in Regional 4
South Carolina coach Dawn Staley has built a dynasty by winning three national titles since 2017. Her Gamecocks (31-3) have been within the top five all year. South Carolina also has a vendetta after losing to UConn in the championship last year. Joyce Edwards is the SEC’s fourth-best scorer and drives South Carolina’s balanced offensive attack. Texas snapped South Carolina’s 12-game win streak in the SEC tournament championship game, which could have the Gamecocks regrouping for a strong run to Phoenix.
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Oklahoma (Regional 4 sleeper): The Sooners (24-7) are this region’s No. 4 seed and have a strong chance of facing South Carolina in the Sweet 16. Their star freshman Aaliyah Chavez scorched South Carolina on her game-high 26 points on five 3s and eight assists to win an overtime thriller, 94-82, the last time they met on Jan. 22. South Carolina can’t afford to have that happen again.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Road to Women’s Phoenix Final Four: Favorites, upset predictions
