Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez prediction: Will wrestling win?

Primarily utilizing a boxing-centric attack, Hernandez wastes little time getting going, working behind a steady dose of prodding jabs and feints. The 32-year-old contender does a decent job of getting his head off the centerline, parlaying his slipping motions into uppercut-hook returns that allow him to fit in and work inside.

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Hernandez also appears to have some solid eyes inside the pocket, and can punch off of single collar ties and body blocks alike. That said, body shots have had a solid effect on “Fluffy” before, so he’ll need to respect the offense coming back his way.

Enter Stickland.

Fighting to his frame, Stickland does a decent job of staying long with the occasional front teep and a series of stinging jabs. Whether he is circling with his jab off the counter or connecting it to crosses down the center line, the jab is a shot that Strickland has had a nice feel for since entering the organization.

When feeling in stride, Strickland isn’t afraid to shift stances mid-combination to better target fleeing foes. Opposite opponents like Krzysztof Jotko, Strickland was able to utilize those shifts to fuel a steady dose of low kicks that were quite effective.

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Still, despite being a fighter who can do his share of countering, Strickland himself is not immune to being countered due to his upright posture and a propensity to sometimes move and follow in straight lines.

However, since teaming up with Xtreme Couture’s Eric Nicksick, Strickland has done a much better job of controlling the cage, which, in turn, helped him turn in one of the biggest upsets of 2023 when he took the title from Israel Adesanya.

Nevertheless, Strickland will still need to respect the level-changing threats coming his way if he means to maintain the striking initiative in this fight.

Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez point of interest: Winning the wrestling

Considering the crux of Hernandez’s game, winning the wrestling will be paramount for both parties this weekend.

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Playing off of both pressure and a high-to-low attack looks alike, Hernandez typically looks to shoot when he has his opposition on the back foot and headed toward the fence. Even though the 12-year pro maintains a solid takedown percentage rate, his game isn’t necessarily reliant on completing his first shot.

An avid chain wrestler, Hernandez understands the power of transitional grappling and being able to extend exchanges. Luckily for Stickland, he’s no slouch in the stamina or scrambling department.

Sure, former UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman was able to largely dominate Strickland to a decision win years ago, but other than that, Strickland has made a solid account for himself within the wrestling realm since stepping onto the UFC scene.

Offensively, Strickland still shows the ability to hit level-changing doubles when he needs to, as well as helpful shuck-by’s from the body lock position that allow him to get an angle on his opponent’s back (which are all good signs considering the damage Strickland sustained in a motorcycle accident years ago).

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Defensively, Stickland has done a decent job when it comes to separating his opposition’s grips or sprawling and shutting down their takedown attempts outright. And when opponents are able to get Strickland down, the former champ has a Chuck Liddell-like determination to tripod up to his base and work himself back upright along the fence.

Still, Strickland can’t afford to be lackadaisical when it comes to covering the head and looking for separations given the stickiness of Hernandez’s spin-cycle-like grappling game.

Working off of an almost catch wrestling-like process, Hernandez is an impeccable positional rider who makes his money by forcing his opposition onto all fours (e.g., referee’s position in wrestling).

Typically riding from the side with the option of a single hook in, Hernandez will keep his opponent’s weight down and forward via cross wrists and leg levers, transitioning between strikes and head-and-arm guillotine variations (a.k.a. boa chokes). And whenever his opposition turns into them, or a choke attempt fails, Hernandez’s front-headlock acumen allows him to transition to and from his home riding position – hence the spin cycle.

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Hernandez is also skilled at using one of my favorite and more underutilized grappling techniques in MMA—the cradle. Whether he’s killing getups along the fence or forcing big actions from opponents that give him offensive opportunities, Hernandez keeps that same catch-wrestling energy when it comes to punishing positions.

Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez odds

The oddsmakers and the public favor the slightly younger fighter, listing Hernandez -300 and Strickland +235 via FanDuel.

Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez prediction, pick

Considering the undeniable momentum of Hernandez, I’m not surprised to see him as a moderate favorite in this spot. That potential problem, however, is that Strickland – win or lose – is a difficult fighter to look good against.

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This will also be Xtreme Couture’s second consecutive swing at bat against Hernandez, so expect Eric Nicksick to have his fighter prepared as far as strategies and tactics go. But if I have to set my biases aside and look at this fight honestly, I’m not sure I can count on Strickland or the tools he brings to the table to handle the kind of fight that’s coming to him.

Although I’ve been shouting about both Strickland’s underrated body teep and Hernandez’s body susceptibilities longer than most, I’m not sure that will be enough to disable or discourage “Fluffy.” Despite believing that Strickland has better wrestling and grappling than many might suspect, his propensity to tripod and turtle in transition could give Hernandez’s catch-as-catch-can style carte blanche via the access he can allow to hips/a rear-waist cinch.

Strickland isn’t exactly the quitting type, but a late finish from Hernandez wouldn’t necessarily shock me. That said, I’ll officially side with this fight going the distance, with Hernandez most likely taking a unanimous decision win from the judges.

Prediction: Hernandez by decision

Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez start time, how to watch

As the main event, Strickland and Hernandez are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 10:35 p.m. ET. The fight airs on Paramount+.

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This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez pick, odds, time: UFC Houston