The odds to win the NBA’s regular-season MVP have tightened in recent weeks, with the top two betting favorites — Oklahoma City‘s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Denver‘s Nikola Jokic — at risk of not qualifying for the award due to a new NBA rule.
Gilgeous-Alexander remains the odds-on consensus favorite, listed at -125 on Wednesday at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Jokic at +310. Both past MVP winners, however, are in danger of being ineligible this season due to an NBA rule that prohibits players who miss more than 17 games from qualifying for postseason awards.
Gilgeous-Alexander was ruled out for Wednesday’s game against the Detroit Pistons (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) as he continues to work his way back from an abdominal strain that has sidelined him since Feb. 3. It will be his 11th missed game this season, and he’ll need to play in at least 16 of the remaining 22 regular-season games to be eligible for a second consecutive MVP award.
Jokic, who has already missed 16 games this season, will be ineligible if he sits out two more.
The uncertainty surrounding Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic has fueled betting interest in Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham. Over the last week, Cunningham has attracted more MVP bets at DraftKings Sportsbook than all other players combined. He’s moved from 14-1 to the third-choice at 9-2 during that stretch.
Throughout the season, more MVP bets have been placed on Cunningham than any other player at BetMGM sportsbooks. Christian Hockerson, an NBA trader with BetMGM, said the sportsbook is in a good position on Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic, but interest in Cunningham and the Boston Celtics‘ Jaylen Brown — whose odds have moved from 10-1 to 40-1 over the last week — has created some liability.
San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama is 20-1, but he’s also on the cusp of not meeting the NBA’s threshold for games played, having missed 14 games this season. Wembanyama has attracted more bets on DraftKings’ MVP odds than any other player this season.
Hockerson said BetMGM also saw recent interest in Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (100-1) and Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (250-1).
A straw MVP poll of 100 media members conducted last week by ESPN indicated Gilgeous-Alexander is the clear top choice, if he qualifies.
