Can Italy make history with a first ever win over England? Will Scotland halt France’s bid for a grand slam in Edinburgh and keep their own title hopes alive?
Here is what is at stake for every Six Nations team heading into the final two weeks.
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France – Grand Slam
It’s expected France’s biggest test will come this week in Edinburgh against Scotland.
There’s an argument, having faced an underperforming Ireland side and inferior Wales and Italy teams that Les Bleus haven’t been properly tested yet, but there’s nothing easy about a trip to Murrayfield.
Of course, we wait with baited breath to see which Scotland outfit turns up, but with their own Triple Crown and slim title hopes alive, it has every making of a tasty encounter.
It’s as much a mental test for France as anything. They know they are in the box seat for the slam and have a superior squad on paper. However, the challenge will come if they meet some resistance in Edinburgh, how they respond.
They blew Ireland away in 60 minutes in round one, went off the boil as Andy Farrell’s side ran in back-to-back tries, but by then the game was done. The wins over Wales and Italy came at a canter. Will they be underdone? Or after the fallow week, will Fabien Galthié have his players primed and ready to kick on against Scotland and England?
It’s at the stage now where even if they defend their title, if it’s not a clean sweep, it could be seen as a missed opportunity for this group – James Regan.
Ireland – Late title push
If you’d have said after the opening defeat to France, and even following the scratchy win over Italy, that Ireland will likely go into the final round as credible title challengers, it would have been a hard sell.
Yet — such is the nature of the Six Nations — here we are. Ireland’s historic smash-and-grab at Twickenham in round three has completely changed the mood around the side. With Wales to come this week, and the potential for Scotland to beat France, there is every chance it will come down to the final day – Regan.
Scotland – Triple Crown
Gregor Townsend managed to avoid the slump that often follows a big win over England — albeit narrowly against Wales — and his side emerge from the fallow week facing two massive games.
They are two matches, against France and Ireland, which will define their year and perhaps Townsend’s tenure. Should they lose heavily and fail to compete in both of those, this tournament will be deemed a failure. However, if they show what they’re capable off and jag a win, the feeling around the campaign would change significantly.
If they get past France, they not only topple the title favourites, but they’ll go into the final week with a chance of winning the title themselves (and the Triple Crown), something which would have been unthinkable after the opening loss to Italy – Regan.
England – Signs of recovery
Make no mistake about it, this is a defining match for Steve Borthwick’s England.
The hopes and plans of a championship showdown with France in Paris have been shelved after defeats to Scotland and Ireland. The immediate post-match reaction after the Ireland humbling was that there was no need to panic: trust the process, you don’t become a bad team overnight and finding the balance of emotion in between ecstasy of when things are going well, and desolation when you lose.
But the team selection from Borthwick ahead of Italy suggests best laid plans have been ripped up, with nine changes.
England’s backline is completely different from the one that started the championship and is the coaches’ attempt to improve their points-per-visit to the opposition 22.
Fraser Dingwall, George Ford, Freddie Steward and Henry Arundell have been jettisoned, leaving a new-look group hoping to subdue the Italian backs.
The brand new half-back pairing of Fin Smith and Ben Spencer signal a complete change in direction (though Alex Mitchell is out injured) while in the pack Jamie George, Alex Coles and Guy Pepper all return. Over the past two matches, the only decent area of England’s gameplan that fired was the scrum.
For so long Italy were seen as a gentle touch for England. The match fitted into the overall Six Nations narrative as a guaranteed victory. There was the odd curveball — think Mauro Bergamasco at scrum-half in 2009, and ‘The Fox’ in 2017 — and the occasional nervous moment, but by and large, England went into this as overwhelming favourites. No longer.
England need a response this weekend to justify talk of overall development and improvement – Tom Hamilton.
Italy – A shot at history
Italy are evolving and improving. Their Six Nations started with that win over Scotland in the Rome deluge, and was followed up by a seven-point defeat to Ireland. Had the bounce of the ball fallen into Tommaso Menencello’s arms, or if Louis Lynagh’s try was awarded, then the result would’ve fallen Italy’s way. Against France, they showed endeavour and ambition, but came unstuck against a team who are in Six Nations terms, out on their own. So now to England, the wounded lions.
Italy have never beaten England in 32 Tests. But under Gonzalo Quesada, this team is different from the sides of the past. The old adage used to be that if you could stop Italy’s scrum, then you’d already be well on the way to beating them. Well, no longer.
Their backs are magnificent, the half-back pairing solid, and the pack as formidable as ever. No wonder Springboks head coach Rassie Erasmus is keeping a close eye on them ahead of their meeting this summer and in next year’s World Cup.
“Italy will finish two or three in the Six Nations,” Erasmus said before the start of this year’s tournament. “For me, they are a team that is on the up from what we’ve experienced from them. We didn’t have an easy ride.”
The opportunity is there for Italy, they just have to believe and take it. – Hamilton.
Wales – Restoring pride
It was March 11, 2023 when Wales visited Rome, beating Italy 29-17. Scores from Rio Dyer, Liam Williams and Taulupe Faletau, and a penalty try steered them to a hard-fought bonus point win.
When Wales walk out at Dublin on Friday evening, it will be a full 1091 days since they last managed to get a victory in the Six Nations. They have endured some grim days, the sport at times feels like it is fighting for survival in a country where it runs through its DNA.
There are boardroom disagreements, a region is teetering on the brink of oblivion, the best players are looking to leave and all the while, Steve Tandy is trying to instil confidence in his team. The Wales head coach role is the toughest job in men’s rugby at the moment.
So when they face Ireland, a side fresh from their outstanding win at Twickenham, Wales will be underdogs by some distance. Few will give them the slimmest shot of coming away from Dublin with a win. But, whisper it, they are improving.
Their performance against Scotland will haunt them — they should have won. And with two matches left, Tandy’s group are desperately trying to avoid the ignominy of yet another wooden spoon.
So it’s pride on the line, and if they win, the 1091-day drought will be lifted, and suddenly, life and aspirations for the sport in Wales will seem a little lighter. – Hamilton.
