Soto, Snell, Kikuchi, and early thoughts on MLB free agency originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
Rapid reaction to an aggressive start to baseball free agency…
Juan Soto is going to dominate the headlines until he signs, which many expect to happen around the MLB Winter Meetings from Dec. 8-11. The Red Sox are among five clubs reportedly in the running for his services alongside the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, and Blue Jays. Agent Scott Boras loves dangling a “mystery team” in all of his big negotiations, so don’t be surprised if we hear about the Phillies or Giants, too, whether they’re interested or not.
Unlike major Boras clients of the past such as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, who signed during spring training, Soto will not be holding up the market all winter. He knows he’s looking at $600 million-plus, he knows he’s probably going to surpass Shohei Ohtani’s record-setting present-day value of $46 million per year, and he knows those offers are ready right now. There’s no need to wait.
The Red Sox sound genuine in their interest and their pursuit could come down to two factors. Soto, who’s already a World Series champ with the Nationals and a finalist with the Yankees, is prioritizing winning. The Red Sox are not in a strong bargaining position from that perspective, given their one playoff berth in the last six years.
So they’re either going to have to blow him away financially, which will be no easy task with Mets owner Steve Cohen involved, or they’re going to have to sell him on being the face of the franchise as a worthy successor to David Ortiz.
Soto considers the Red Sox Hall of Famer a mentor, and last year the two even became neighbors in the same building in the Dominican. “When I talk to him, I feel like I’m talking to one of my kids,” Ortiz said at the time.
The second path may actually be Boston’s best bet, because it’s hard to imagine the Red Sox significantly outspending everyone else on the list. Soto wasn’t the man with the Yankees (Aaron Judge), he wouldn’t be the man with the Mets (Francisco Lindor), and he definitely wouldn’t be the man with the Dodgers (Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman).
The Red Sox are a different story. With Rafael Devers more of a follower than a leader, there’s an opportunity for Soto to step into the clubhouse and make the team his own. If he’s pondering his legacy, restoring the Red Sox to glory could earn him an Ortiz-like place not just in franchise history, but baseball history. …
While the Dodgers reportedly have made Soto an offer and can never be counted out of any negotiation (remember when Ohtani supposedly had boarded a plane for Toronto?), they’ve always felt like more of a long shot for his services.
That’s because they need pitching more than offense, and at some point, even their resources are finite. So it should comes as little surprise that while the rest of the big spenders are tied up in Soto-mania, L.A. made a shrewd move on the pitching side, signing two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell to a five-year, $182 million deal.
By jumping the market on Snell, the Dodgers didn’t give the losers of the Soto sweepstakes a chance to pivot to the most purely talented starter available. The move also signals a tacit acknowledgement from Boras that he screwed up Snell’s market last winter, when the lefty signed late with the Giants on a prove-it deal.
The dance for agents over the next two weeks will be holding their clients back until after Soto signs vs. capitalizing on a big offer now while the Mets and Co. are presumably sidelined. The Dodgers threaded that needle with Snell, who’s undeniably gifted, but also a major injury risk on top of all the other injury risks in their rotation. …
Sticking to the pitching side, the Angels surprised by signing lefty Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $62 million deal. Another Boras client, Kikuchi has been all over the place over six years spent largely with the Mariners and Blue Jays. Dealt to the Astros at the trade deadline this year, he went 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA in 10 starts to help Houston secure a playoff berth.
Kikuchi was considered a second-tier starter, and his signing helps provide clarity to the market for veterans like Nathan Eovaldi and Walker Buehler. Along with Snell, he also suggests that the starting market could move quickly once Soto signs.
That means Braves lefty Max Fried and Orioles righty Corbin Burnes, both presumed Red Sox targets, could be on the move. If the Red Sox don’t land Soto, they should be ready to act aggressively for a starter.
