The Mariners have not scored more than three runs in a single game since dropping 10 on the Nationals way back on June 12. Over the last two weeks, they’ve dropped from second in the AL in wRC+ (107) to eighth (101)! They’ve gone 4-7 during this cold snap and have lost merely a half game in the standings. The mediocrity of the entire AL West — really, the entire American League — has been their saving grace all season long. Now, they’ll wrap up this Midwest road trip with a stop in Cleveland this weekend.
|
Game |
Time |
Mariners Starter |
Guardians Starter |
Mariners Win% |
Guardians Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Game 1 |
Friday, June 26 | 4:10 pm |
RHP Luis Castillo |
LHP Joey Cantillo |
51.3% |
48.7% |
|
Game 2 |
Saturday, June 27 | 4:10 pm |
RHP Logan Gilbert / RHP Emerson Hancock |
RHP Slade Cecconi |
57.1% |
42.9% |
|
Game 3 |
Sunday, June 28 | 10:40 am |
RHP George Kirby |
RHP Gavin Williams |
52.2% |
47.8% |
|
Overview |
Mariners |
Guardians |
Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Batting (wRC+) |
101 (8th in AL) |
92 (14th in AL) |
Mariners |
|
Fielding (FRV) |
-21 (14th) |
4 (3rd) |
Guardians |
|
Starting Pitching (FIP-) |
89 (3rd) |
98 (7th) |
Mariners |
|
Bullpen (FIP-) |
88 (2nd) |
92 (5th) |
Mariners |
The Guardians are in the middle of a tightly contested AL Central race — and therefore in the middle of the crowded AL Wild Card race too. The only problem is that José Ramírez, their superstar third baseman, fractured his hamate bone in his left hand on June 13 and will be sidelined until August. That puts a ton of pressure on the rest of the roster to at least tread water until he can return to lead the lineup. So far, the team has lost all three series it’s played without Ramírez, though that’s been good enough to stay tied with the White Sox atop their division.
|
Player |
Position |
Bats |
PA |
K% |
BB% |
ISO |
wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Travis Bazzana |
2B |
L |
213 |
20.2% |
12.2% |
0.185 |
125 |
|
1B |
L |
253 |
31.6% |
11.1% |
0.164 |
105 |
|
|
Brayan Rocchio |
SS |
S |
296 |
13.5% |
8.1% |
0.119 |
108 |
|
DH |
R |
233 |
30.5% |
15.9% |
0.175 |
90 |
|
|
3B |
L |
227 |
30.0% |
9.3% |
0.131 |
75 |
|
|
Kahlil Watson (AAA) |
RF |
L |
254 |
28.0% |
14.6% |
0.236 |
124 |
|
Steven Kwan |
LF |
L |
299 |
10.7% |
13.0% |
0.048 |
72 |
|
C |
S |
162 |
25.3% |
7.4% |
0.074 |
40 |
|
|
CF |
L |
51 |
29.4% |
2.0% |
0.063 |
21 |
The Guardians’ lineup looks a lot less dangerous without Ramírez anchoring it. Their best hitter is now Travis Bazzana, their rookie second baseman who made his big league debut a couple of months ago. He’s been excellent so far, with a 125 wRC+ and seven home runs in 50 games played, though he can’t carry the load all on his own. The problem is guys like Steven Kwan and Kyle Manzardo, who had been solid sidekicks for Ramírez in the past, have really struggled this year. Kwan’s issues are a huge problem in particular. He’s been Cleveland’s second-best hitter since debuting, but a 47 point drop in his BABIP has completely sabotaged his contact-first approach. If you’re looking for something positive, Brayan Rocchio has taken a pretty big step forward at the plate this year, though he’s hilariously miscast as a number three hitter. That’s just the reality of the Guardians’ options without Ramírez taking that familiar place in the lineup.
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Probable Pitchers
|
Pitcher |
IP |
K% |
BB% |
HR/FB% |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
80 |
22.4% |
10.9% |
11.8% |
41.3% |
4.05 |
4.41 |
|
|
Luis Castillo |
70.2 |
21.8% |
7.9% |
10.2% |
36.9% |
5.22 |
4.08 |
|
Pitch |
Usage vRHB |
Usage vLHB |
Velocity |
Stuff+ |
Whiff+ |
BIP+ |
xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Four-seam |
38.1% |
40.6% |
91.8 |
88 |
65 |
115 |
0.393 |
|
Cutter |
3.6% |
3.0% |
87.3 |
80 |
|||
|
Changeup |
31.2% |
18.5% |
80.5 |
111 |
125 |
82 |
0.262 |
|
Curveball |
23.4% |
17.0% |
79.5 |
109 |
105 |
103 |
0.227 |
|
Slider |
3.7% |
20.9% |
82.8 |
83 |
81 |
61 |
0.366 |
From a previous series preview:
Joey Cantillo spent last year split between the bullpen and the rotation. Once he made the move to starting in July, things really took off for him; he posted a 2.96 ERA and a 3.21 FIP across 13 starts down the stretch. His calling card is a phenomenal changeup that produced a 49.4% whiff rate last year! His two breaking balls are okay too — his curveball is the better of the two but he was testing a new grip on his slider this spring to hopefully increase that pitch’s effectiveness. His command is his weakness, though his walk rate improved slightly after joining the rotation last year. With a role in the rotation secured to start this season, he’s well positioned to take a big step forward if he can get his errant command under control.
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The Mariners scored two runs in 3.2 innings against Cantillo in his first start of the season way back in April. It’s been an up-and-down year for him since; he had a 3.57 ERA but a 4.53 FIP through the end of May, but a rough pair of outings against the Yankees and Rangers at the start of this month have pushed his ERA up a hair over four.
|
Pitcher |
IP |
K% |
BB% |
HR/FB% |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Slade Cecconi |
84.1 |
18.2% |
7.4% |
12.8% |
46.0% |
4.48 |
4.45 |
|
Logan Gilbert |
93 |
27.2% |
6.0% |
12.7% |
33.8% |
3.29 |
3.78 |
|
Emerson Hancock |
85 |
24.2% |
5.7% |
12.9% |
41.1% |
3.60 |
3.84 |
|
Pitch |
Usage vRHB |
Usage vLHB |
Velocity |
Stuff+ |
Whiff+ |
BIP+ |
xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Four-seam |
26.8% |
32.5% |
93.2 |
95 |
86 |
92 |
0.356 |
|
Sinker |
26.8% |
15.7% |
93.3 |
93 |
72 |
66 |
0.349 |
|
Cutter |
29.5% |
25.2% |
88.1 |
89 |
100 |
133 |
0.301 |
|
Changeup |
0.4% |
2.9% |
81.6 |
||||
|
Curveball |
9.5% |
21.3% |
75.4 |
95 |
105 |
63 |
0.304 |
|
Slider |
7.1% |
2.4% |
83.7 |
95 |
|||
|
Sweeper |
9.5% |
3.2% |
81.6 |
95 |
From a previous series preview:
Slade Cecconi came to the Guardians last offseason in the December 2024 trade that sent Josh Naylor to Arizona. He had a decent year in Cleveland, managing to stick in the rotation for the entire year after spending the first two years of his career as a swingman in Arizona’s bullpen. He doesn’t have outstanding stuff and won’t overpower batters, but he does have excellent command and a deep repertoire to keep batters off balance. His two breaking balls are his best pitches and he added a cutter and sinker to his arsenal last year. His fastball is pretty lackluster and that’s where his whole approach breaks down. If he’s not keeping batters honest with his secondary pitches, they can key in on his heater and do some real damage.
The Mariners rocked Cecconi for six runs in 4.1 innings in his first start of the season. He continued to struggle over his next six outings but has since turned things around; he’s got a 2.96 ERA and a 3.50 FIP in nine starts since May 9. The biggest difference has been the introduction of a revamped slider to replace his sweeper. That new breaking ball has returned a 40% whiff rate so far and he’s throwing it about 15% of time this month.
|
Pitcher |
IP |
K% |
BB% |
HR/FB% |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Gavin Williams |
96.2 |
28.5% |
8.0% |
16.9% |
45.7% |
3.82 |
3.85 |
|
George Kirby |
96 |
20.9% |
5.7% |
9.3% |
49.0% |
3.94 |
3.35 |
|
Pitch |
Usage vRHB |
Usage vLHB |
Velocity |
Stuff+ |
Whiff+ |
BIP+ |
xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Four-seam |
25.4% |
33.5% |
96.7 |
104 |
145 |
107 |
0.357 |
|
Sinker |
48.1% |
14.8% |
96.4 |
94 |
100 |
98 |
0.405 |
|
Cutter |
7.2% |
15.4% |
92.2 |
81 |
104 |
93 |
0.430 |
|
Curveball |
19.3% |
36.3% |
82.7 |
109 |
93 |
115 |
0.305 |
|
Sweeper |
58.3% |
23.0% |
87.2 |
113 |
129 |
103 |
0.242 |
From a previous series preview:
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Gavin Williams ended last season on an extremely lucky run. From June through the end of the season, his BABIP allowed was just .221 which led to a 2.50 ERA that far outpaced his 4.27 FIP. Most of his underlying peripherals stayed pretty stable through the season, but a ton of good batted ball luck allowed him to be a key piece of the Guardians’ playoff run in September. He added a sweeper to his pitch mix last year and it returned a 44.0% whiff rate. That gives him two excellent breaking balls to attack batters with alongside a hard fastball. The issue is his command. His walk rate is well below average and it’s pretty shocking he was able to get away with all those baserunners without giving up a ton more runs.
The Mariners really made Williams work in his first start of the season, scoring three runs in five innings on Opening Day. Williams walked six in that outing, a season high for him. He’s steadily improved his walk rate over the course of the season, marking a significant improvement to his results. His strikeout rate is up nearly four points as well, though he’s paid for it by allowing a ton of hard contact and a ton of home runs.
The Big Picture:
|
Team |
W-L |
W% |
Games Behind |
Run Diff |
Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mariners |
41-41 |
0.500 |
— |
+4 |
L-W-W-L-L |
|
Astros |
40-43 |
0.482 |
1.5 |
-39 |
W-L-W-W-W |
|
Athletics |
39-42 |
0.481 |
1.5 |
-54 |
L-L-L-L-W |
|
Rangers |
39-42 |
0.481 |
1.5 |
-13 |
W-W-L-L-W |
|
Angels |
34-48 |
0.415 |
7.0 |
-36 |
W-W-L-W-W |
|
Team |
W-L |
W% |
Games Behind |
Run Diff |
Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
45-33 |
0.577 |
+7.0 |
+13 |
W-L-L-W-W |
|
|
Guardians |
42-39 |
0.519 |
+2.5 |
-8 |
W-L-L-L-W |
|
Astros |
40-43 |
0.482 |
— |
-39 |
W-L-W-W-W |
|
Athletics |
39-42 |
0.481 |
— |
-54 |
L-L-L-L-W |
|
Blue Jays |
39-42 |
0.481 |
— |
-28 |
W-W-L-L-L |
|
Rangers |
39-42 |
0.481 |
— |
-13 |
W-W-L-L-W |
The Astros started a four-game series against the Tigers yesterday, winning 2-1. That’s their third win in a row and it moved them into a virtual tie with the Rangers and Athletics for second in the AL West. Both Texas and the A’s won yesterday as well, with the Rangers beating the Blue Jays. That means all three of those AL West teams and Toronto are tied for that final Wild Card spot. After salvaging a win against the Giants yesterday, the Athletics will head to Anaheim to face the Angels this weekend.
