The Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars have controlled the AFC South the past four seasons. Will that hold true in 2026?
Jacksonville and Houston both earned playoff berths last year, with a razor-thin margin at the top of the division. The Jaguars rode 13 wins to take the AFC South crown, while Houston punched a playoff ticket via the wild card with a 12-5 record.
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The Jaguars bookended the last four years with division titles, while the Texans won the AFC South in back-to-back years in 2023-2024.
Roster-wise, things will look largely the same in 2026. The Jaguars lost key free agents in RB Travis Etienne Jr. and LB Devin Lloyd, but they will get two-way star Travis Hunter back from injury. Houston still figures to be problematic again as most starters return for a defensive unit that ranked No. 1 in total defense in 2025.
Jacksonville and Houston are the favorites, but the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans shouldn’t be overlooked. The Colts raced out to an 8-2 start a year ago before injuries derailed them. Meanwhile in Tennessee, Cam Ward gained valuable experience in Year 1, and the Titans drafted WR Carnell Tate and splurged during free agency to support their passer.
Will the AFC South change hands in 2026 or will the Jaguars and Texans continue to have a stranglehold on the division? USA TODAY Sports gives a very early look and prediction of the AFC South race.
Houston Texans
The Texans return almost all of their starters from a Super Bowl-caliber defense last year, which ranked No. 1 in total defense and No. 2 in points allowed. However, a vulnerable offensive line, poor running game and ill-advised giveaways on offense are what led to Houston’s demise a season ago.
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The Texans say C.J. Stroud’s had a good offseason after a turnover-prone postseason, during which he threw five interceptions and lost two fumbles. Houston also added three new starters to its weak offseason line and traded for downhill running back David Montgomery. The Texans have earned double-digit wins for three straight seasons.
Indianapolis Colts
Indy’s investment in Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce will be under a microscope in 2026: Jones has been inconsistent throughout his career and Pierce has never been asked to be a No. 1 wide receiver, and while both enjoyed career years, they’re also coming off injuries. To that end, Jonathan Taylor remains the engine of the Colts offense: the running back has compiled over 1,400 rushing yards two years in a row. Indy must improve defensively after ranking near the bottom of the league in both pass rush and run stop win rate.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence tossed a career-best 29 touchdown passes despite a down year from wideout Brian Thomas Jr. The departures of both Etienne and Lloyd are holes the Jags need to fill, but they should get a boost from the healthy return of two-way playmaker Travis Hunter (knee) who is set to play more cornerback this year. Jacksonville’s AFC-best 31 takeaways last season helped them win the division in Liam Coen’s first year at the helm.
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Tennessee Titans
The Titans spent an NFL-high in overall contract value this offseason, per Over the Cap. As a result, 2025 No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward has more talent around him, including first-round pick WR Carnell Tate and free-agent addition Wan’Dale Robinson; both should aid a pass offense that was the third worst in the league in 2025. The Titans signed Jeffery Simmons to a record-breaking extension and gave him a high-priced running mate along the D-line in John Franklin-Myers.
AFC South prediction: Texans win division behind stifling defense
Returning almost every starter from the league’s No. 1 defense, the Texans are poised to have one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses again in 2026.
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With edge rushers Anderson Jr. and Hunter, cornerback Stingley Jr. and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, the Texans have playmakers on every level of their defense. That all makes the Texans a dark-horse Super Bowl contender – if quarterback C.J. Stroud makes positive strides this season.
Stroud’s regressed since his superb rookie season, but general manager Nick Caserio and the team have praised Stroud this offseason in anticipation of an improved year. A revamped O-line to pave the way for David Montgomery could provide dividends for the offense, too.
The Jaguars figure to be Houston’s No. 1 competition. The Jags won an impressive 13 games last season and should once again be considered a playoff contender. Jacksonville boasts a good receiving trio in Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington, but there are questions at running back and tight end. Defensively, it might be difficult to replicate the amount of turnovers the unit produced last year, especially without Lloyd.
The Colts and Titans shouldn’t be overlooked. The Colts got off to an 8-2 start last year before injuries derailed their season. The Titans onboarded talented players on both sides of the ball in efforts to improve.
Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Tyler Dragon on X @TheTylerDragon.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY Sports: Texans’ stifling defense or Jags’ star duo? Predicting the AFC South
