The Cases for Katie Ledecky and Summer McIntosh in 800 Freestyle World-Title Duel
The last time Summer McIntosh and Katie Ledecky met in a World Championship final, a wildly-hyped three-woman showdown turned into a massive dud. Two years ago in Fukuoka, Australia’s Ariarne Titmus ran away with the world title in the 400 freestyle, smashing McIntosh’s world record in the process. Ledecky took silver but finished more than three seconds behind while McIntosh recorded by far the worst swim she’s ever had at an international meet. New Zealand’s Erika Fairweather passed McIntosh in the closing meters, with the Canadian teen ending up almost four seconds off her best time.
Since then, McIntosh has established herself as the world’s best swimmer. Her three-gold-medal performance at the Paris Olympics made her a national hero and a surefire Hall-of-Famer before her 18th birthday. She won Olympic silver behind Titmus in the 400 in Paris, and now she is expected to turn the eight-lap event into her own personal dominion. At the recent Canadian Trials, she shattered the world record with a time of 3:54.18. Even if Titmus were not taking the year off, she would have little chance at beating McIntosh in the 400 now.
Katie Ledecky — Photo Courtesy: Giorgio Scala / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto
Breaking three world records at the selection meet was an all-time performance, and in between her marks in the 400 free and 200 IM, McIntosh came up just short of Ledecky’s world record in the 800 free with a time of 8:05.07. As McIntosh swam the third-fastest time in history, she broke up Ledecky’s stranglehold on the top performances in history in the race. At the start of the year, Ledecky owned the 17 quickest swims ever, and even though McIntosh was the second-fastest performer ever, she was still 6.5 seconds behind. Not anymore.
McIntosh’s surge into Ledecky territory in the 800 free comes at the exact same moment when the nine-time Olympic champion is in the midst of a late-career renaissance. At the Fort Lauderdale Pro Series in May, Ledecky broke her nine-year-old world record in the 800 free, besting a mark she set at the Rio Olympics that seemed likely to survive generations. Instead, she knocked a two-thirds of a second off that time and finished in 8:04.12 in one of the most magnificent accomplishments of her career.
Ledecky followed up that swim with a remarkable performance at U.S. Nationals in early June. She set a breakneck pace in the early going, flipping with a 400-meter split of 4:00.66 that eclipsed the time she swam to win Olympic bronze in that distance last year. Ledecky faded slightly coming home but finished in 8:05.76, which was the third-fastest time ever before McIntosh went to work at her own selection meet five days later.
Now, the two titans prepare for a showdown, their first in the 800 free at a major competition. McIntosh has not raced this event internationally since the Tokyo Olympics, when the then-14-year-old placed 11th. That was the meet when Ledecky won her third consecutive gold in the event, and a year ago in Paris she became the first female swimmer in any event to four-peat.
Now comes one of the greatest challenges of her career. Here are the compelling arguments for why each swimmer could win 800 free gold in Singapore.
Why Ledecky Will Win
Simply, Ledecky always wins. She upset Rebecca Adlington for Olympic gold in this event as a 15-year-old, broke the world record for the first time one year later and never looked back. Along with her four Olympic golds, Ledecky has captured six world titles in the event, tied with Sarah Sjostrom (50 butterfly) for the most of any swimmer in a single event. Most of those wins have been dominant but not all.
While Ledecky no longer dominates the 400 free like she did as a younger swimmer, she has fought off every challenge in the 800. In 2019, Ledecky fought illness throughout the World Championships and was forced to withdraw from the 1500 free. She bounced back enough to make the 800-meter final and won an epic race against Italy’s Simona Quadarella. The two swimmers were nearly dead even the entire time before Ledecky used every ounce of heart and grit to pull out a win.
Similarly, Ledecky was not at her best in either of her two most recent Olympic wins, with Titmus posing a serious challenge on both occasions. The Australian was never out of range in Tokyo before coming in just 1.25 seconds behind, and in Paris, the two were nearly dead-even the entire way until Ledecky surged in the final 200 meters.
Now, her two most recent 800-meter races were Ledecky’s best of her career outside of a major competition, and the best by a long way. She’s arriving in Singapore with momentum and a winning streak.
Why McIntosh Will Win
Summer McIntosh — Photo Courtesy: Andrea Masini / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto
Unfortunately for Ledecky, McIntosh is also coming in with serious momentum thanks to her virtuoso Trials performance, and the 400 final in 2023 notwithstanding, she has been consistently excellent in big moments. Her four individual finals in Paris resulted in three golds and a silver, and she is a two-time world champion in the 200 fly and 400 IM. She has yet to win a freestyle world title, but her previous attempts have pitted her against Ledecky, Titmus and Mollie O’Callaghan while McIntosh was still in the growth phase of her career.
McIntosh is also the only swimmer to defeat Ledecky in the 800 free in at least 13 years, going back to before Ledecky’s surprise wins at the 2012 U.S. Olympic Trials and ensuing London Games. At a local meet in Florida last February, McIntosh shocked Ledecky in a six-second win in this event. That was the last time the two swimmers raced in this event, with McIntosh opting out of potential matchups with Ledecky in Paris and again at the Fort Lauderdale meet when Ledecky achieved the stunning global mark.
The Verdict
No one knows who will win this race. We can confidently declare that both McIntosh and Ledecky will bring their best form and race strategy, and the result could be a classic. Both will be in the middle of busy World Championship schedules when the 800 free final rolls around on night seven, but both will be free from race obligations for more than 24 hours following the prelims of this race on day six.
The prediction here is that McIntosh uses an early burst of speed to pull ahead and Ledecky spends the first portion of the race in catch-up mode. Expect nearly a dead-heat entering the final 100 meters before McIntosh has just enough left to sprint ahead and pull out the world title.
