SYDNEY – As far as footballing analysis goes, that goals change games isn’t the most cutting of insights; coming in just above the ball is round and the grass is green when it comes to stating the obvious. But oftentimes, the simplest of wisdom can be the most percipient. Take, for instance, Australia‘s 5-1 FIFA World Cup qualification win over Indonesia on Thursday evening.
Across a ferocious opening 15 minutes, the Indonesians were dominant. They were not some demure minnow, coming to Australia seeking to eke out a result by ceding possession and looking to play on the counter-attack. They were pressing high and with intensity and moving the ball forward with lethal intent with the ball at their feet. Tony Popovic’s side almost looked shell shocked, panicked even, as they were hardly able to string a series of passes together before turning the ball over or committing silly errors that opened the door for them to be punished. Tim Garuda had arrived at the Sydney Football Stadium with an intent to win the game, rather than not lose it, and backed by a sea of red shirts in the stands that made a mockery of this being a ‘home’ fixture for the Socceroos, had their hosts on the ropes.
In the seventh minute, this control should have been rewarded. A ball was lobbed over the top of the host’s defensive line, and after Cameron Burgess‘ attempt to head it clear fell just short, it sat up promisingly enough for Rafael Struick to induce Kye Rowles to stick a wayward boot in, clip the Brisbane Roar attacker, and give away a penalty. Struick has hardly done anything for the Roar this season, and he hardly would do anything else on Thursday night before his halftime substitution, but in this one moment he had potentially provided the fixture with its defining moment.
Only, it wasn’t defining. Because Kevin Diks’ attempt rocketed off the crossbar and back into play. Rather than punctuate their lackluster start with a gutpunching deficit – and all the potential negativity that can breed in player’s reactions – the Socceroos had been granted a reprieve. They had a chance to make amends in a fixture that wasn’t quite a must win in the context of their push to secure one of the two automatic qualification slots for the 2026 FIFA World Cup on offer in Group C, but close to it.
And it didn’t take long for them to do so. Fewer than 10 minutes, in fact because 15th minutes in, Nathan Tjoe-A-On gave up on trying to mark Lewis Miller and engaged him in something more resembling ballroom dancing, giving away a VAR-adjudicated spot kick of his own. And while Dik couldn’t score with his attempt, Martin Boyle made no such mistakes, sending Maarten Paes the wrong way for the lead. Set pieces, again, coming to the rescue of the Socceeroos. Just two minutes later the advantage was then doubled when Nishan Velupilay galloped into space in pursuit of a loose ball behind the Indonesia defence – if it last came off Adam Taggart or Thom Haye wasn’t apparent in the stadium – before clinically dispatching to cap off a move featuring contributions from Jason Geria, Boyle and, in particular, Taggart – his able to hold up play in possession before his halftime withdrawal with a groin completing giving Australia a crucial outlet as they bypassed the midfield.
From that point, the result never really felt like it was in doubt. Goals change games, after all, and the entire nature of this contest was irrevocably altered. Missing a penalty only to watch their foes convert one of their own and add another goal for good measure, the air had been sucked out of the Indonesians and their fans. The fire that had characterised their opening 15 was gone and, in its place, were breakdowns in discipline, more time on the ball for the Australians, and greater gaps and pockets of space for them to exploit. The Socceroos, for their part, looked more settled and were able to start keying in on some of the combinations and patterns they were seeking to implement and get those such as Jackson Irvine to do Jackson Irvine things – the veteran leader proving a willing runner in getting into the box to twice find the net.
The Indonesians desire to control possession suddenly went from a strength to an anchor, the paradox of Popaball ensuring that their initiative and expansive approach created a significant threat that need to be seen off but also played into the strengths of Australia; a lead grabbed, defended, and added to when able to take advantage of an opponent’s increasing exposure as they chase the game.
A question, invariably, however, is what would have happened had Diks struck true from the spot.
Australia was able to rally back from a poor start and grab the win but are they able to do that if they suffer the blow of an early goal, where there’s a mostly hostile crowd surrounding them despite the game being at home? Are they able to keep their heads and prove clinical as they ended up being if their desperation and sense of dread is slowly growing as they chase the game? Are Indonesia able to take that early boost and ride it to a famous win, just months on from defeating Saudi Arabia 2-0 in Jakarta?
“In the beginning of the game, we did a very good job in pressing high,” said Kluivert.
“After that, we received the penalty. If you score the penalty, it will be a totally different match. But unfortunately, Kevin hit the post and from that moment, we changed something in our minds or something. We didn’t play our play anymore.
“But I think that we fought like lions. We never dropped our heads. But unfortunately, I’m very disappointed.”
Goals, we can see, don’t just chance games. They change perceptions. They can change narratives, careers, World Cup qualification campaigns and maybe even the trajectory of an entire footballing nation.
The narrative that will naturally flow from Thursday is that Kluivert naive in sending his side out to try and get in the faces of a higher-ranked opponent with a high line.The outcome and Australia’s moves to bypass the midfield and work against isolated defenders reinforces this. Indonesia, meanwhile, have gone from pushing for an unlikely, diaspora-driven automatic qualification slot to fighting to avoid elimination thanks to the tight nature of the group. The PSSI backing the players and removing Shin Tae-Yong, who held Australia to a 0-0 draw in September, looks to have backfired. Their pursuit of a heavy program of naturalisation perhaps has left the side unjointed and reached the point of diminishing returns, too. But would anyone be saying that if Diks converted and took something from the game?
And what of Popovic? Right now, Australia is on track for automatic qualification and most of its fans still think he’s an overly negative and stubborn bastion of negative coaches. The coach has come under scrutiny for his policies at the selection table and Football Australia for so strongly and quickly backing a coach of his philosophy after breaking with Graham Arnold. But thanks to Diks’ miss, he remains undefeated, with more time to work on implementing his vision free of speculation on his future and signs of progress nor obfuscated by the pain of defeat.
Indeed, goals change games. But they can change so much more.
