Nobody’s saying the upcoming season will be a walk in the park in the Atlantic division. The reigning Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers will still be a force to be reckoned with, the perennial contender Tampa Bay Lightning has replaced an aging Steven Stamkos with the most highly sought-after free agent Jake Guentzel, the Toronto Maple Leafs keep on winning (in the regular season) and the Boston Bruins can never be counted for dead.
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After the four big guns so to speak, you’ve got the perennial rebuilders Buffalo Sabres who have been on the cusp of competing for years and who have finally solidified their goaltending; Steve Yzerman’s Detroit Red Wings who have added two-time Stanley Cup champion Vladimir Tarasenko and Cam Talbot; and the winners of the Linus Ullmark derby, the Ottawa Senators.
That’s a lot of stiff competition, but I think putting the Montreal Canadiens dead last is overly negative. It’s worth remembering the Yearbook was put together long before GM Kent Hughes rocked the Summer with the Patrik Laine-Jordan Harris trade. The publication still slots Laine on the Columbus Blue Jackets‘ first line alongside Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau who has since met an agonizingly untimely death which brought the hockey world to a standstill.
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There are a few factors which would go a long way to ensuring the Canadiens don’t finish last of the divisional pack come season’s end, here are my top three.
Kirby Dach‘s Continued Progression
In his two seasons since arriving from Chicago, Dach has played a grand total of 60 games. He had complicated injury issues in his first season and suffered a well-documented knee injury less than two games into the 2023-24 campaign.
However, he did have time to show that he can perform very well as a center in the NHL and he was just coming into his own when an injury in late March ended his 2022-23 season.
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At last camp, he looked to be in fantastic form and was linking up very nicely with Juraj Slafkovsky on the ice until he met Jared Tinordi by the Blackhawks bench and suffered a freak injury.
The Canadiens’ coaching staff spent the whole year trying to keep Dach as involved as possible while he was rehabbing his knee following surgery. They had him sit in on coaching meetings and asked him to read videos to ensure he kept practicing his decision making and he remained engaged with the group culture.
If Dach can have a healthy season and pick up right where he left off, he will be a huge part of the reason why the Canadiens won’t finish at the bottom of the Atlantic like the Titanic. The Canadiens being able to count on a second real offensive line would help alleviate the pressure on their top unit formed by Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Slafkovsky. The captain had his most productive season while under high scrutiny from the best defensive players in the league who had no other line to worry about in Montreal. If the former third overall Blackhawks pick at the 2019 draft can make his line a real top-six line, Montreal’s offense should be able to be that much more productive.
Patrik Laine‘s Integration
Laine’s career in the NHL hasn’t been easy so far. He’s had a few productive seasons in Winnipeg before requesting a trade apparently because he clashed with the Jets’ veteran leadership.
He spent the next four seasons in Columbus, plagued by injuries and fighting mental health issues. He sought help from the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program and received it. Before even being out of the program he let it be known he wanted a fresh start elsewhere. Reportedly, something happened in the dressing room and it didn’t sit right with him.
Related: Canadiens: About the Harris-Laine Trade
A happy player is a productive player. If the Habs brass can ensure he feels right at home in Montreal and part of the team culture, Laine could conceivably return to form. As the Canadiens GM likes to say, Laine hasn’t forgotten how to play hockey.
Furthermore, he’s exactly the kind of player who could thrive under Martin St-Louis‘ tutelage. The Canadiens’ pilot likes to see his players read the game and react, make the best decision with the information that’s unfolding in front of them and that’s something Laine could do very well.
Hughes has managed to install a great culture in the Canadiens’ room so far and the team’s leadership seems to be fully on board with Laine’s acquisition. One can therefore expect that every effort will be made to make him feel welcome on his new team and he has said that he has picked up some coping mechanisms not to stay too down on himself when the going gets tough from the Player Assistance Program.
If he feels happy and settles in his new digs, the big Finn should have no problem getting back to his scoring ways, once he shakes off any rust accumulated that is.
The Goaltending
The threesome is no more, Jake Allen has left the building at last year’s trade deadline leaving Samuel Montembeault as the number one goalie and Cayden Primeau comfortably installed in his role of backup.
Last season, the Canadiens lost 36 games by a single goal. With a bit more offense, some of those losses could of became wins but the same can be said about the defense. Cutting down the number of goals allowed would also have gone a long way toward achieving the same result.
Now that both goaltenders have more stability and know what to expect, there needs to be an improvement in the goals allowed category. Less goals allowed leads to less losses, it’s simple math.
As mentioned yesterday, this will be a contract year for Primeau and he’ll be eager to show that he deserves to be kept on this team going forward. Montembeault is under contract for three years as things stand and once those three years are over, he will be an unrestricted free agent. There’s little doubt in my mind that the plan will be to test the market for the 30-year-old then.
By then Jacob Fowler should have graduated from the NCAA and maybe even played a season in the AHL. If he’s still the heir apparent by then, the Canadiens may need a stop gap option and that could be Primeau or Jakub Dobes depending on how the latter performs in Laval in the foreseeable future. There’s nothing like healthy internal competition to foster growth and improvement.
If things go well for the Canadiens in those three departments, I believe they’ll avoid being dead last in the division. I don’t believe they’ll be making the playoffs but that certainly won’t be for lack of trying. If everything goes according to plan this year, we won’t know by Christmas that the CH won’t be able to punch its ticket to the playoffs.
