The rebuild: 4 things every contender has and when Dallas could get there

Bringing a bad team to contention typically takes time. It took the Mavericks four years to return to prominence after drafting Luka Doncic. Cooper Flagg’s timeline is setting up to be similar.

A lot has happened in the past year. After the Mavericks punted and traded Anthony Davis, the flagship piece in the Doncic trade (no pun intended), the championship timeline was reset. Here are four characteristics of today’s contenders, and a timeline of when Dallas could get there.

SPOILER ALERT: It could be sooner than you think.

You need a Batman

Well, the good news for Dallas is that this one is taken care of. Finding a true bona fide superstar is the toughest part of a rebuild. Just ask the Utah Jazz, New Orleans Pelicans, Chicago Bulls, Sacramento Kings, and today’s shining star: the Detroit Pistons. The additional challenge teams face is that not every really good player can be a Batman. Cooper Flagg showcased his superhero abilities this season and proved he can be the next franchise superstar.

Flagg averaged 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game this season. The only other rookies to average at least 20-6-4? Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, Oscar Robertson, Larry Bird, Elgin Baylor, and Luka Doncic. That’s pretty good company. Flagg became the first teenager to score 50 points in a game when he did so against the Orlando Magic on April 3. He also set the record for the most 40-point games in a season by a rookie, with four, surpassing LeBron James, who held the previous record of three.

The praise for Flagg could go on and on. The only thing left for the rookie sensation to accomplish is taking home the Rookie of the Year trophy. He’s neck-and-neck with former Duke teammate Kon Knueppel, who set his own fair share of shooting records this season as a rookie. But no matter who takes home the hardware, you get the picture. Dallas has its new Batman.

You need a Robin

Is Robin somewhere in the 2026 NBA draft? Is he on the team already? This one is hard to answer. After Kyrie Irving tore his ACL in March of 2025, there was optimism in Dallas that he would return before the end of the 2026 season. But with the Mavericks well out of the playoff picture, the organization decided to shut him down for the rest of the season.

Irving could be the Robin Dallas is searching for to fit alongside Cooper Flagg. After some growing pains initially with Luka Doncic, Irving proved he could be a legitimate second threat on a championship contender. The Mavericks were 15-27 in clutch games this season. Playing without a true, seasoned point guard stung them countless times this season. Could a healthy Kyrie Irving flip that to 27-15? There’s an argument for it. Before he went down last season, Irving was averaging 24.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game. Plug those numbers into this team with his poise and leadership, and Dallas could have been, at the bare minimum, in the playoff hunt

Or maybe the Robin comes from the draft. The Mavericks have to hit again in this lottery since they do not own their own pick again until 2031. With loads of talent at the top of the board and Dallas sitting at 8th in the draft, there’s a real chance the Mavericks strike gold in two consecutive drafts. The depth of the guard class is incredible – Darryn Peterson, Kingston Flemings, Keaton Wagler, Mikal Brown Jr., Darius Acuff Jr., and Labaron Philon are just a few. And again, those are just the guards. There’s plenty of talent to go around this summer.

If you look at recent champions, each had a 1A and a 1B. The Thunder had Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. The Celtics had Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Nuggets had Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. The blueprint of recent contenders says you need two legitimate threats with the proper supporting cast.

You need an identity

Every contending team has an identity. The Thunder play swarming defense. The Nuggets have an elite center with athleticism and snipers. The Celtics have two stars and are lethal from three. When teams prepare for the Mavericks, what do they think? Do the Mavericks have a true identity? Outside of Cooper Flagg, Dallas doesn’t have much to hang its hat on other than playing hard. But playing hard doesn’t mean winning (as we saw). So the Mavericks need to develop a true identity.

When the game slows down, what is the one thing this team can rely on to get them wins? Most might be tempted to say defense, but the Mavericks were 20th in the NBA this season in defensive efficiency, giving up an average of 116.5 points per game. Injuries wrecked this season for Dallas, so we can’t say with true certainty that the Mavericks aren’t a really good defensive team, but the numbers aren’t there yet.

Unless the roster gets a complete 180-degree flip, it’s hard to imagine the strength of Dallas being the offense. The Mavericks were 27th in offensive efficiency this season, scoring only 111.2 points per game. Dallas also ranked 26th in three-point shooting, cashing in on just 34.4% of attempts. There’s no question the Mavericks need more offensive firepower. They first need to develop a league-average offense before making it any part of their identity.

Either way, the Mavs need an identity that the team can buy into that feeds into wins. Until then, they’ll be on the outside looking in. And developing an identity takes time and typically encompasses multiple seasons. But that process needs to start this offseason.

You need health

It is no secret that the Mavericks have been riddled with injuries. Kyrie Irving missed the entire season. Dereck Lively missed 75 games. Daniel Gafford missed 27 games. P.J. Washington missed 26 games. Anthony Davis played less than half of his total possible games as a Maverick. Dante Exum didn’t play a game in a Mavs uniform this year. This season was another grind for Dallas.

You need a certain amount of luck each season to be in the championship conversation, and when it comes to injuries, Dallas has had zero luck. Particularly when it comes to its frontcourt showcased in the 2024 playoff run: Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II. These two need to stay on the court for Dallas to have a chance at contending again. Some injuries you can deal with, but with Anthony Davis being gone, the Mavericks are thin at the center position. Unless they re-sign Marvin Bagley III or convert Moussa Cisse’s two-way deal, Dallas lacks size in the middle.

And of course, above all, the Mavericks will need Kyrie Irving. If the Kyrie-Cooper connection is as special as we think it can be, next year will be fun. But Irving is 34, and if he were to miss significant time again, it would be another year wasted. The Mavs need him to have any chance at competing.

The timeline

It’s impossible to put a definite timeline on Dallas in its path to contention, but it may be closer than you think. The hardest part is done, in finding Cooper Flagg, a generational talent. If the Robin is Kyrie Irving, the Mavericks, as currently constructed, are at worst a play-in team. There are still many circling questions around Irving and if he can return to form, but even an 80% Irving makes this team much better. Once the franchise adds another key talent to the roster through the 2026 draft, it will only elevate Dallas.

The rest of the roster still needs work. The Mavericks desperately need to add more shooting and playmaking. Dallas also must prove its big men can stay healthy for a full season, or at least comparable to 2024. Both weaknesses will probably take more than a year to figure out.

The realistic timeline to contention is probably somewhere in the two to three years range. With some experience under his belt, Cooper Flagg will only continue to get better. If you add his current running mate in Kyrie Irving, and a new running mate from the draft, this team gets better quickly but is still lacking experience.

Assuming no major injuries next season, the Mavs should take a big leap in the standings. After a full year of Kyrie Irving back and Flagg paired with his new young talent, the Mavericks should elevate themselves to at least middle-of-the-pack.

PREDICTION: 2028-2029 season is when Dallas officially enters contender conversations.

Putting it all together

If there is one team that feels both so close and far away to being a title threat, it’s the Mavericks. They have the centerpiece but still need to work around the edges with the rest of the roster and have decent health. They are probably two to three years away from contention, but the path is there.

The good news is that for now, we know one thing for sure: it can’t get any worse than these past two seasons, right?

Right?…

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