Well, lo and behold! The vaunted MLB Trade Deadline is under a week away, and the Cardinals have finally succumbed to the battle for .500 and are now underwater, a couple of games under a winning season. I have been advocating for a hybrid buy/sell situation, but I can definitely empathize with anyone who would want to be sellers at this point in the season.
Which is me doing a 180 all of a sudden. I thought it was in poor taste to constantly talk about the trade deadline, rooting for trading away key players, decimating our rotation and bullpen. And also even chatter about trading away key players like Ivan Herrera and Masyn Winn. Something about the way the team has played after the All-Star Break has lead to me having a change of heart. We definitely should not be buyers, because that would require trading away our most valuable assets in the farm system. It would be folly to go all in now, even with the most enticing offers. The offense isn’t complete, with too many holes in the lineup, while the bullpen cannot hold us in games reliably enough.
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I still lean more towards a very open minded buy/sell situation, however… for a variety of reasons. One being that if you want to be sellers, Dustin May and Lars Nootbaar are simply not extremely good trade pieces in this market, which I’ll explain later. You would have to open your mind to trading guys like Ivan Herrera and Masyn Winn to bring back a lot of value. Some of the other valuable players might be more surprising, like Matthew Liberatore could be traded to the right team in desperate need of a starting pitcher. Liberatore does have surplus value.
But a trade deadline is a little bit different. It’s very subjective in more ways than one. What are the current needs of the buyer? What is the market like right now?
A Trade Deadline Market Heavy On Starting Pitching
Sure, Liberatore has a bunch of surplus value, but no contending team wants him right now, with his performance. He does have 4 years of control, but he’s just not going to help anyone except maybe the Nationals or Cubs? I don’t even see it. Dustin May, has a lot less surplus value, but there is some there. But can he put a contending team over the top? That seems like a very subjective choice of the buying team. On the surface, a 4.59 ERA and 1.32 WHIP feel like a middle of rotation arm if we are being generous, and to many people that’s a #4 or #5. But we all know evaluations go deeper than that. If a team likes the stat FIP, May might seem like a sneaky good pick on the market. If you are up on the times, statcast metrics pretty much show May as about an average MLB starting pitcher, with some strengths and weaknesses that about balance out. That is for sure a mid rotation arm to a lot of teams.
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But the problem for the Cardinals in dealing Dustin May is just how stacked this market is in good starting pitching. This will probably give any buying team leverage in any trade deal. Sometimes it’s best just to hold on and not take a bad deal, even if the player does not return. The upside here is What If the Cardinals do make a sort of run at the wild card? They certainly are far from out of it at this point in the season.
A Market Full of Teams On The Cusp
In the National League, the Cubs, Phillies, and Pirates are holding the wild cards at the deadline, while the Diamondbacks could strike and swipe the Bucc’s card right away at any moment. Damn snakes, arrrr! With the Nationals offense, they will probably be buyers since they are just barely out of a wild card spot. The Cardinals, Marlins, and Padres will probably not be full on sellers, either, considering they are all within 2 games. Of the three, the Padres seem least capable with a run differential of -21. The Marlins have been staggering along with the Cardinals, but has it been enough for an MLB organization to decide to just throw in the towel?
I would name the sellers in the NL as the Reds, Giants, Mets, and Rockies. But that’s not a lot of supply for all the possible buyers. The Cubs, Phillies, Pirates, and possibly the Diamondbacks will all want to shore up their rosters, to keep up their pace and fend off around 4 teams trying to take their spot.
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All this contention has made this trade deadline rather murky, and is either going to be a really tough one to predict, or… will end up like last year without a ton of action. I am leaning toward the latter, especially for the Cardinals.
Applying the same terms to the American League wild card race, we find a picture even more murky. I included teams under 5 games out of the wild card as teams that might not be sellers… if I apply that logic to the AL that would include the Tigers, who are likely to be sellers, because there are already 4 teams in the wild card hunt, beyond the favorites Yankees, Red Sox, and Guardians. We can assume that NY will take one of the 3 wild cards, but that leaves 6 teams for 2 spots. It would be tough to predict which organizations will decide to sell, if any.
A Murky Trade Market
Two of what should be the major sellers are the Angels and the Mets, two teams that might make some odd decisions in the seller market. They tend to not want to rebuild! But they sure as hell look like they should move some pieces. Will they allow themselves to make some moves? I think perhaps the most intriguing thing to think about as Cardinals fans is, Will Chaim Bloom and John Mozeliak make a trade? Will Bloom continue moves with Boston? Both are very easy to see as a possibility, given that Mozeliak and Bloom worked together over the last few years, while Chaim’s previous employer was the Red Sox. Is there some kind of effect here? Or will Bloom blindside us with random trade partners? Three team trades? Will the market get creative this year?
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Dream Deadline Moves
Now that I have admitted that I think that there will probably be little trade deadline stories, I want to think big and imagine what could be if it was a VERY active trade deadline for Bloom and the Cardinals. I have no idea how realistic or completely ridiculous these trades are, but let me know what you think! Anything can happen.
Part 1 Trade a catcher to the Yankees
In my opinion, we have too many catchers. We almost have a team full of catchers. Or will soon! One guy that could be considered an asset, difficult to quantify: Pedro Pages. Perhaps the Yankees will like the intangibles with Pedro Pages. He seems like a baseball guy, tighter with the coaches and manager, seems to be trusted, a clubhouse chemistry guy, a rotation manager, however you can market this idea to NY. And believe it or not, Pedro Pages actually hits better than the Yankees catcher. Make it happen, Chaim!
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There’s no way in hell that the Yankees are doing this deal straight up, since the player I would be on the phone after is their #22 prospect, pitcher Chase Hampton. Hampton has 6 years of control, while Pages only has 4 years left.
MLB Trade Calculator — Free Trade Values · Rosternomics
To really get this deal done, you will probably have to throw in Lars Nootbaar. But then I want another player! Maybe try to talk them into adding Cade Smith to the deal, to make our bullpen much more tolerable, or maybe Ben Grable, another pitcher from their minor league system, if they do not want to take away from their current bullpen situation. There are a ton of Yankees pitchers to choose from as the add on to Chase Hampton!
MLB Trade Calculator — Free Trade Values · Rosternomics
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I have no idea what I’m doing here, but I would take that deal in a heartbeat. The secondary pitcher can be whoever you want it to be, the Yankees have a lot of pitchers valued at $1.8M using this tool. I found it extremely useful since, again, I have no idea what I’m doing, but here we are… It’s the best I could come up with!
Part 2 The Bloom-Mozeliak Move
Maybe they will pull off a last second trade, with all other options exhausted, or maybe they’ve had something planned all along. Or maybe I’m being ridiculous… but I think something is going to happen with the Bloom and Mozeliak connection. Call it a lucky guess, if I’m right, maybe a trade will happen… maybe not. Let’s imagine so.
I want to move another catcher, and John likes Jose Fermin a lot. I will make that move because I want to give the team a shot at the postseason this year. And to me that’s going to require some shoring up of the bullpen. It’ll hurt to lose the Ferminator, but we have Torres, and maybe if Saggese ever comes back, etc.
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Sure, this trade looks like an overpay, but you have to pay for some bullpen help at the deadline. And I don’t think many of us will miss Ryan Campos, correct me if I’m wrong. I’m sure there’s some Campos fans out there!
MLB Trade Calculator — Free Trade Values · Rosternomics
^Use the link to come up with your own Fermin + a catcher trade with the Angels!
Part 3 Back To Boston
Chaim cannot ignore Boston, with our good rapport and recent trade history, why not do more deals? Let’s assume that Boston’s top prospect, Roman Anthony, is off the table. So far, my dream has been to hunt down pitching at the deadline. You can never have too much pitching. Because I’m crazy, the Red Sox #2 prospect is the goal: pitcher Anthony Eyanson. Boston is another team that needs a catcher, so I’m going to once again trade a catcher for pitching!
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Somehow Bloom talks Boston into taking Ivan Herrera as their solution at catcher. Don’t ask me how, but he done did it. In reture, the Cardinals get #2 Boston prospect Anthony Eyanson, plus additional pitcher Juan Valera and outfield prospect Enddy Azocar, the Red Sox #5 prospect. You’re the best, Chaim! It’s sad to see Herrera go, but I know that they believe Herrera can catch. And maybe they can convince Boston, too!
MLB Trade Calculator — Free Trade Values · Rosternomics
Part 4 Liberatore Goes To Atlanta
The Braves, desperate for any kind of starting pitching, acquire all kinds of it, and take a flyer on Liberatore as a middle inning reliever and insurance for their rotation. Bloom convinces them all Matthew needs is a change of scenery and a tweak to his repertoire. They are nice enough to send us 17 year old outfield prospect Diego Tornes! It’s a big gamble for both teams, but as you can see, the calculator says we actually LOSE this trade! Let’s do it!
And there you have it, my dream is 4 trades at the deadline, perhaps the most mad trade deadline ever. This is all highly impossible, but I hope that it was fun to read, at least. Because this will never happen.
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But what if they wanted to also trade May and Burleson? You might be surprised that their trade values are about the same, and not as much as you might think. This is all of course anyone’s guess, and subjective to the deadline, but it’s what I have to go on. I think they’ll keep both *unless they might trade Burleson to move Herrera to 1B and aren’t telling anyone.
To sum up, I think such a tool would be moreso used in the offseason trade market, but maybe it gave me a few ideas, at least, about the trade deadline.
My 20 Top Heavy Metal Albums from 1993
Continuing on with my favorite albums of all time, year by year since 1975, heavy metal edition… 1993
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In case you missed last week when I revealed my favorite albums of 1993, I now have that in playlist form here! And now for the heavy metal edition!
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Demilich – ‘Nespithe’ I’m not saying this is my favorite heavy metal album from 1993, but it is certainly most interesting… they practically invent a whole new form of death metal here, both more extreme and more prog rock and well, advanced. I was big into playing Dungeons & Dragons in high school, and one of the most powerful characters in that game is an undead being called a lich, and well, the idea of a demilich is pretty weird to think about. If I knew of this band back in high school, my mind would’ve been completely blown. They’re already mind altering enough years after it was released. (Finland)
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Neurosis – ‘Enemy of the Sun’ one of the heaviest, most disturbing, and yet spiritually moving albums you’ll ever hear from any genre of music, the legendary west coast punk band Neurosis’ second official full length will haunt your years after hearing it just a few times. It might take more than one listen for its full effect to set in, but it’s a very memorable experience. Neurosis during their peak years. (Oakland)
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Carcass – ‘Heartwork’ Carcass go full technical death metal here, but also get more melodic along the path. Probably Carcass’ heaviest album of all, and it opened their fanbase up to a whole new experience while expanding it. Gone were the grindcore punk days, leaving a metal monstrosity of epic proportions. A perfect album start to finish, if your ears can take it and your neighbors don’t start pounding on your walls. (UK)
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Cathedral – ‘The Ethereal Mirror’ Cathedral has become one of my favorite metal bands over the years, and one of the only metal bands carrying on the torch passed down by Black Sabbath to the few doom bands of the 80s and 90s. The best one of those bands was Cathedral, as far as I’m concerned. The guitarist’s tone is impeccable, and if you allow yourself to have some fun with the at times funny vocal stylings of Lee Dorrian, which contrast with the heavy seriousness of the music in such a way that it just makes it all the more entertaining. Cathedral aren’t just old school metal with a big ol’ side of DOOM, they also slyly incorporate other musical elements, genres such as classic rock, prog rock, and even punk or soul at times. (UK)
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Death – ‘Individual Thought Patterns’ this was my first album from death metal originators Death, and it’s still one of my favorites! To me this is where they fully realize their sound and Chuck Schuldiner’s musical goals for the first time; nothing against what came before it, but he was still developing the sound and lineup of the band. “The Philosopher” is a standout track, but you’ll need to hear the whole album for the full effect. Sounds a little different than the rest of the discography, too. (Tampa Bay)
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dISEMBOWELMENT – ‘The Tree of Life and Death’ albums like this is one of the reasons why I do this… I had never heard this one before but I have not heard anything else like it. Way ahead of their time, another one of those bands simply paving their own path. I would file this under the heaviest of avant garde death metal, or maybe one of the weirder, most original death doom releases you’ll hear. (Australia)
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Morbid Angel – ‘Covenant’ at this point Morbid Angel were practically a household name, at least among heavy metal households. As far as a an favorite, this album might only be outdone by the band’s legendary debut. Worth it just to hear the song “God of Emptiness”, alone! But a perfect album, nonetheless. Along with Death, Morbid Angel was a key part of the Tampa Bay death metal scene in the early 90s. (Tampa Bay)
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Eyehategod – ‘Take As Needed For Pain’ legendary NOLA sludge punk road warriors put themselves on the map and don’t look back. If you like your metal slow, disturbing, veering into hardcore punk territory, and sounding like it was recorded with amps on 11 suffocated by a giant wall of disgusting steam in the deep south, under the influence of lots of drugs, then this one’s for you! very NSFW (New Orleans)
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Fudge Tunnel – ‘Creep Diets’ another album where I’m not sure if this is more metal or punk, but I think at least upon first listen it sounds more metal. Anyways, I have had this album since around when it came out, and I practically wore out the tape back in the day. It’s full of energy and guitar hooks, and doesn’t really sound like anything else. (UK)
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Sepultura – ‘Chaos A.D.’ and another album that has been with me since I was a teenager! By this point, Sepultura had blown up pretty big, had been on Headbanger’s Ball, Beavis and Butthead, etc. It’s just an epic masterpiece of an album. And the last of the first era of Sepultura LPs. Excellent. (Brazil)
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Pestilence – ‘Spheres’ another amazing Pestilence album! Such a consistent discography, pushing the envelope and continuing to define their style of technical death metal. (Netherlands)
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Ceremonial Oath – ‘The Book of Truth’ probably the most obscure album on the list, it also features the album cover most likely to be filed under rejected Magic the gathering card art. (Sweden)
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Sinister – ‘Diabolical Summoning’ another album that reminds me of Magic the card game, and features epicly weird fantasy art. The music is an absolute scorcher and is new to me, but it sounds like a keeper and is also a rather obscure heavy release. (Netherlands)
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Anacrusis – ‘Screams and Whispers’ probably one of the only people in my area listening to these guys back in the 90s! This band sounds like art metal mixed with progressive thrash! And features vocals more like goth industrial punk legends Killing Joke than like most of the bands on the list. Also, Anacrusis is from here! (St Louis)
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Gorguts – ‘The Erosion of Sanity’ Gorguts are one of my favorite bands ever, but moreso for all the albums that were released after this one. The Erosion of Sanity is quite good however, and some fans prefer this era. To me, this is them just showing an inkling of things to come while playing more of that old school death metal sound, but with their own twist to it. They’re on here more for things to come, but this is still crucial death metal listening. (Canada)
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Brutality – ‘Screams of Anguish’ one of the more obscure but underrated Tampa Bay bands, new to me but I already think they’re better than half the legendary death metal bands of TB. These guys might be the best sleeper pick from Florida! Utterly brutal old school death metal!!! And another Magic the gathering card art reject album cover. (Tampa Bay)
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O.L.D. – ‘The Musical Dimensions of Sleastack’ I’m not even sure what to make of this band, and this album… it’s weird, it’s art metal, it’s pretty psychedelic… I like their previous album more, but this one is tough to leave off the list, it’s just an oddball. Even a bit industrial, but even weirder than their debut. Strange. To make it even stranger, I just discovered that their band name stands for Old Lady Drivers! hahahaha (New Jersey)
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Violent Dirge – ‘Elapse’ perhaps the loudest bassist in the mix of any heavy metal album, so it must be included! Intense music! (Poland)
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Rottrevore – ‘Iniquitous’ you guessed it! another bad magic card album cover. Music is BRUTAL. New one to me, but it’s got staying power. (Pittsburgh)
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Crowbar – ‘self-titled’ another NOLA sludge metal album to round out the list is Crowbar’s debut! Another Beavis and Butthead chosen band. (New Orleans)
There you have it, my favorite 20 heavy metal albums from 1993! Thanks for reading.
Game 3 of Cubs @ Cardinals today at 1:15pm! Last chance to salvage an attempt at splitting the 4-game series. And did anyone notice that this is the first time this team has been under .500 all year?
