Many of the top NFL Draft prospects participated in the NFL Combine last week. Nate Tice and Charles McDonald updated their evaluations and published their latest mock draft on Wednesday.
They made some bold projections regarding which players will be selected in the first round and now Rivals rankings director/transfer portal analyst Adam Friedman has three NFL Draft related predictions involving players who transferred at least once during their college career.
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1. THE ONLY WAY THE NO. 1 PICK IS A TRANSFER PROSPECT IS IF THE TITANS MAKE A TRADE.
Last year it was former Oklahoma and USC quarterback Caleb Williams who was selected with the first pick in the NFL Draft. In their latest mock draft, Nate and Charles have former Incarnate Word, Washington State, and Miami quarterback Cam Ward as the projected top pick to the Tennessee Titans.
Normally I’d agree that the top-rated quarterback in the draft would be the likely No. 1 pick but this year is a bit different. This crop of quarterbacks isn’t nearly as good or deep as previous years and the group expected to be eligible for the draft next year already looks better than this year.
Tennessee has a lot of holes on their roster that they could fill with an immediate quality starter but they’d be better served taking Penn State’s defensive end Abdul Carter or Colorado‘s Travis Hunter. The Titans are rumored to be considering trading back in the first round and whichever team moves up to No. 1 would likely be doing so to get one of the top two quarterbacks – Ward or former Jackson State and Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders.
2. THERE WILL BE FEWER FORMER TRANSFERS IN THE FIRST ROUND THAN LAST YEAR.
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In their latest mock draft, Nate and Charles slotted six players in the first round who had transferred at least once during their college careers, three fewer than in 2024. Cam Ward is slotted at No. 1 and he’s joined by Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders in the top five. Mike Green from Marshall, Derrick Harmon from Oregon and Shavon Revel Jr. from East Carolina were also picked to be drafted in the first round.
The number of transfers taken in the first round probably won’t be as low as six, but it would be surprising to see that number reach nine. There were some notable former transfers left out of the first round in their mock draft. At least two out of Ohio State offensive tackle Josh Simmons, Ole Miss defensive tackle Walter Nolen and Texas wide receiver Matthew Golden were in multiple previous versions of Nate and Charles’s first round mock draft.
The changes in their latest mock draft take into account the performances from the NFL combine, but there are still pro days around the country where scouts and coaches will learn a lot more about every potential draft pick. It wouldn’t be surprising to see these players and other transfer prospects make their way up the board and earn first round projections as the pre-draft process rolls on.
3. IF QUINSHON JUDKINS DOESN’T GET PICKED IN THE FIRST ROUND, IT WILL CAUSE OTHER RUNNING BACKS TO RETHINK THEIR TRANSFER DECISIONS.
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At this time last year, Quinshon Judkins was arguably the best running back in college football. His transfer to Ohio State ahead of last season came as a bit of a shock for many and he, of course, went on to win a national title last season with the Buckeyes. Now he is a longshot to get drafted in the first round.
Whether or not Ohio State’s NIL package was the biggest is irrelevant because a player considered one of the best in college football won’t transfer unless they believe the move will help them improve their draft stock.
Part of the reason Judkins picked Ohio State was to split carries and limit the wear and tear on his body but he still led the Buckeyes in carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns. Out of this year’s top running back prospects, Judkins has the second most career rushing attempts over the last three seasons. According to PFF, the 739 career rushing attempts by Judkins would be more than any running back picked in the first round since at least 2010.
If maximizing his worth was really one of the goals he hoped to accomplish by transferring, Judkins will have fallen just short if he slips to the second round. That is something high end running backs in college should consider before deciding to enter the portal.
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