It is clear to see what the Washington Nationals need in the present and the future. The Nats need pitching, and badly. This Nationals offense has shocked the baseball world by leading the entire sport in runs scored through 51 games. However, they have also allowed the most runs in baseball, which is why they are under .500 despite their elite offense.
The Nats starting rotation has not gotten the job done this season. Cade Cavalli has been solid, and Foster Griffin was fantastic before his last couple starts. However, Griffin is a free agent after the season, and there is not much behind those guys. There also are not many surefire solutions to the rotation on the farm. Jarlin Susana and Travis Sykora are extremely talented, but both have missed the whole season. The next best pitching prospect is Miguel Sime Jr., who is just 19 and is years away.
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At some point, the Nats are probably going to have to make a big move for pitching. Why not do it sooner rather than later? I came up with three pitchers that the Nats could go after that all have multiple years of control after this one. They are three different profiles as well. Jose Soriano is the potential ace of the future that would require a blockbuster package. Reid Detmers is the upside play who has untapped potential. Finally, Carmen Mlodzinski would be a rotation stabilizer who can be very reliable.
The first pitcher I want to talk about is the big fish, Jose Soriano. If Paul Toboni were to bring him in, it would be like when Mike Rizzo traded for Gio Gonzalez. Soriano has been one of the best pitchers in the American League for an awful Angels team. With two years of control after this one, Soriano would be a prime trade candidate.
If the Nats wanted to hold onto CJ Abrams and maximize his timeline, Soriano would be a great player to trade for. The right hander is on the same free agent timeline as Abrams. Soriano has a 2.44 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 66.1 innings, averaging over 6 innings per start. He throws an upper 90’s fastball and gets a ton of ground balls while also getting strikeouts. Soriano has high octane stuff that might be even better than Cade Cavalli’s.
Soriano is also just 27 years old, so he would be a great fit with this group. He and Cavalli would be a high quality one-two punch at the top of the rotation. It would not be Scherzer and Strasburg levels of elite, but it would be very good. Along with his fastballs, Soriano has two swing and miss secondaries, with his curveball and his splitter. Both get whiff rates at a 45% clip.
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I am going to be honest, this is not very realistic and it would take a big prospect package. A package of Ronny Cruz, Luke Dickerson, Landon Harmon and Ethan Petry could be what it takes to get Soriano out of Anaheim. Paul Toboni may not have the stomach to give up that kind of haul this early into his process. However, if he really believed that this group is ready to make a run in 2027 and 2028, this would be an option worth considering.
Another Angels starter worth monitoring is Reid Detmers. After a successful season in the bullpen, Detmers moved back in the rotation this year. On the surface, it seems like the move has not gone that well. Detmers has an ERA over 5 on the season.
However, the under the hood metrics are fantastic. Detmers has a 3.08 FIP and 3.24 xERA. It is worth pointing out that Detmers has historically underperformed his underlying metrics, but it is clear he is getting unlucky right now. The lefty is striking out over 25% of hitters while walking under 8% of batters.
The Angels are not known as a savvy organization, so maybe the poor surface level stats have convinced them Detmers is not the answer. If so, the Nats should jump all over this opportunity. Detmers could provide similar results to Soriano without costing as much. A package of Luke Dickerson and Ethan Petry could potentially be enough to get him out of Anaheim.
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I really like Detmers’ stuff. His bread and butter is his fastball/slider combination. The heater has a ton of ride at the top of the zone and the slider is his put away pitch. Detmers also throws a gorgeous 12/6 curveball. His best curveballs look like Kershaw’s. He also mixes in a changeup. It is a well rounded mix that I think the Nats could get the best out of. With two years of control after this one, Detmers would be a fun arm for the Nats to grab.
The last arm I want to talk about is a little more boring. Carmen Mlodzinski does not have the flashy stuff of Soriano or Detmers. However, he has been a quality piece of the Pirates pitching staff for a little while now. He has a 3.40 career ERA in 235.2 career innings. With how many pitchers the Pirates have though, Mlodzinski may not have a permanent home in the Pirates rotation though.
The metrics have been split on him this season. He has a 3.96 ERA, a 3.00 FIP, a 4.66 xERA and a 3.89 xFIP. That is a lot of variance, but I think the truth is he is a high-3’s arm. The Nats desperately need reliable arms like that, especially ones with three years of control after this one.
Mlodzinksi’s best pitch is his splitter, which is his most used pitch. He throws it 27.8% of the time, and batters are only hitting .206 against it this season. The righty throws a sinker and a 4-seamer to have multiple fastball looks. He also throws a curveball, a sweeper and a slider, but none of his breaking balls are standout pitches.
I think the 27 year old Mlodzinski would be a good piece in the middle of a rotation. What the Pirates would want in return could be interesting. They want to win now with Paul Skenes, so they would ask for someone more big league ready. If Toboni wants to give up on one of Dylan Crews or Brady House, this could be the type of deal he may put them in. The Pirates need more offense and the Nats need more pitching, so this type of swap would make sense.
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This is more of a thought exercise than anything, but it would be fun if the Nats did some sort of soft buy either at the deadline or in the offseason. It really seems like they are ahead of schedule. However, they still have glaring needs. I think it would be smart if the Nats used their deep farm system and pool of young players to address some of these needs. It will probably not happen, but I wonder if Paul Toboni is thinking along these same lines.
