The Ottawa Senators found themselves in unfamiliar territory heading into the Four Nations Faceoff break.
Their 29-23-4 record has given the team 62 points and sole possession of the Eastern Conference’s first wild card seed. With 16 of their remaining 26 games being played at home, the Senators should be in the driver’s seat and have control of their playoff destiny.
That does not mean it will be easy, however.
In a tightly contested Eastern Conference, there are a log jam of teams surrounding the Senators. The Senators are six points back the Atlantic Division’s second-seeded Toronto Maple Leafs, but the six teams below them in the standings are all within five points.
In the past few weeks, two significant trades were made that could have lasting implications on the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Carolina Hurricanes have historically been characterized as a team that struggles to finish despite the fact the team defends and creates chances well. Their addition of Mikko Rantanen was an effort to remedy that shortcoming. Conversely, the struggling New York Rangers reacquired J.T. Miller to bring a veteran tenacity to flat group.
Like any other group of sports fans, the Senators’ players certainly paid attention to the moves.
“Yeah, of course,” Josh Norris explained. “It’s just normally banter, right? You talk about it, who won the deal, who didn’t win. (Those were) a couple pretty big trades. It’s been pretty crazy.”
Norris and his teammates cannot worry about the implications of the moves. They are too focused on their game and elements within their control, but Norris admitted that the group is excited about their placement in the standings and the opportunity before them.
“Definitely a different feel coming this time of the year for sure,” Norris said. “This is not something that we’ve had before. Credit to the guys, we’ve battled all year.
“It hasn’t been easy up to this point, but I think we’ve scratched and clawed and just a different mindset this year for sure.”
Holding that wild card seed puts the team in a position where general manager Steve Staios could finally be a buyer towards the NHL deadline. His Senators have begun being connected to several trade rumours.
Postmedia‘s Bruce Garrioch has linked the Senators to forwards Brandon Tanev, Gustav Nyquist and perhaps most interestingly, Ryan Donato. The inclusion of Donato certainly fits with other reports that Canadian franchises have shown interest in the winger.
The Blackhawks forward is a six-time double-digit goal scorer who is enjoying a breakout campaign at 28 years of age. Through 53 games this season, Donato has recorded an impressive 19 goals and 37 points.
This uptick in offence represents a marked jump from his career norms. Donato’s previous career high was 16 goals in 74 games during the 2021-22 season with Seattle. His 2024-25 season looks like the classic pump-and-dump case. Evolving-Hockey‘s combos tool shows the winger has spent the majority of his five-on-five minutes alongside Connor Bedard.
HockeyViz‘s data shows that Donato’s offensive impacts have historically been league-average until this season while his defensive impacts are below average.
Not surprisingly, his offensive output this season coincides with his improved isolated impact.
Evolving-Hockey‘s data supports Donato’s historical statistical profile on HockeyViz. Their proprietary ‘goals above replacement’ value (GAR) and ‘wins above replacement’ value (WAR) are almost career highs for Donato, despite the fact he can still accrue more value across the remaining 25-plus games left in his 2024-25, barring injury.
The risk for a team like the Senators is that demand for Donato should be high based on his production this season and the fact that he does bring physical elements to the ice. His 89 hits this season would be the fourth-highest total on the Senators behind Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris, and Ridly Greig.
Interestingly, the Senators’ Adam Gaudette (1.1 WAR), who has played stretches in Ottawa’s top six, has accrued more value than Donata (1.0 WAR) per Evolving-Hockey. The concern is that Donato’s production relies heavily on the uber-talented Bedard and benefits from an elevated role on a less talented team.
Thanks to the Senators’ shallow pool of quality prospects and the likelihood that the organization will forfeit its first-round pick in one of the next two drafts, there may not be an appetite to trade valuable draft currency for an impending unrestricted free agent.
Considering the Senators are pressed up against the cap ceiling, barring a trade that moves significant money off the parent roster, it would make more sense for them to work the margins to improve their roster. The easiest way to free up some room would be for the organization to move Anton Forsberg’s $2.75 million cap hit and promote Leevi Merilainen. That kind of move would not be without risk. It would necessitate a separate move to acquire a veteran option with NHL experience that they plug into Belleville as insurance.
Whatever the case, the Senators are in an exciting spot. They have some easily identifiable spots on the roster that they could upgrade, but the pressure will be on management to continue to find the right fits.
Acquiring some talent to help move this season forward would be such an encouraging move to reward a group that has held up their end of the bargain.
It is a possibility, the players recognize and relish.
“(Making a trade) is a little above my pay grade, but I think the guys have done a really good job,” Norris stated. “Obviously, it’s a tight race, but we’ve put ourselves in a really good spot coming down the stretch here to play a lot of meaningful games.
“It would be nice to add a piece for sure, but like I said, it’s a little above my pay grade. It would definitely be nice.”
This article is from The Hockey News-Ottawa. For more Ottawa Senators coverage, check out THN.com/Ottawa or join the Senators Roundtable by leaving a comment below.
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