For all intents and purposes, this is a playoff game.
Due to Saturday’s results not going the Cyclones’ way, Iowa State’s trajectory in the Big 12 tournament is simple. If they win, they are the seven seed and play their first game on Thursday. If they lose, they are either the No. 9 or No. 10 seed and will play on Wednesday. While ESPN still favors Iowa State for a 68% chance to win, this Kansas State squad still gave the Cyclones a run for their money in Ames with the Cyclones ultimately prevailing with a 76-72 victory. With both teams losing their last two, everyone is itching for the comfort of a win as the postseason arrives.
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Woes in the paint defensively
If you have watched the past two games, then there is one factor on defense I know you can point out, but I’ll give you the numbers to validate your beliefs. In the past two games Iowa State has allowed 86 points in the paint. For comparison, Iowa State has scored 56 in that span. TCU and OSU figured out a simple but effective strategy where they can drive to the lane and either take a clear layup, or have Audi move from her assignment and get a bounce-pass to the post for a different layup. That was the adjustment TCU made to complete a large comeback late a week ago, and OSU performed it to put the game away late after three tight quarters.
The past two games have been golden opportunities to put themselves back as a formidable opponent that can still achieve the high preseason expectations. Now, I still believe that Iowa State has the capacity to play with the top end of the conference, but the past two games have demonstrated a clear weakness to close out games late, and there is no time remaining to adjust.
Ultimately, the sky isn’t falling… yet
There are some stretches where this team looks great, and a lot of the numbers still demonstrate a high ceiling. Even while ranking seventh in the conference in three point attempts, Iowa State ranks first in three pointers made due to converting on 37% of their shots from long range, first in the conference. A 1.1 points per possession is generally considered among the upper end of offenses, so I would argue that Iowa State needs to shoot more often from beyond the arc, and specifically with a wide range of options. Iowa State boasts four players that shoot above 39% from deep, with three of them attempting at least 100 shots and the fourth being Addy Brown who missed 11 games.
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Since the return of Addy Brown, Audi Crooks has averaged 23 points per game, which is an improvement from the 20.45 points without the star forward. The team has averaged just 9.33 turnovers per game while averaging 20.66 assists. A team averaging over a 2.0 assist to turnover ratio is very good, with much of the conference averaging more turnovers than assists. Iowa State is in a very rare position where they lead the conference in assists while also allowing the least amount of turnovers.
Main point? This team can be good. If it can translate to 40 minutes, that’s when they become truly dangerous.
K-State is in a tough stretch
Even though their hopes in March were likely dashed during the non-conference season, K-State is attempting to avoid a three game skid to end the regular season. A second loss to the Jayhawks and a 80-54 thumping at Baylor would certainly be difficult to recover from, but they should have confidence going into this matchup as the game did come down to the wire before a late Kenzie Hare three pointer sealed the deal.
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In the first bout in Ames, Taryn Sides led the way with 23 points, including 3-6 from deep and 4-4 from the free throw line. In a subversion of season trends, Iowa State won the game at the free throw line, shooting a fantastic 25-28 from the charity stripe. While that rate is likely unsustainable, they have shot nearly 80% from the line in their last four, compared to their overall 70% during conference play. If you’re Kansas State, I would say that they still put themselves in a position to win, but a significantly above average night from the free throw line as well as 27 fouls is what ultimately doomed them.
With that being said, what are the keys to victory? Here are my thoughts.
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Close the lane defensively. There were many times in their games against TCU and OSU where the opposition would make a drive to the hoop and there would be a lack of resistance. If Audi Crooks comes over to help, there were many bounce passes and offensive rebounds that led to a bucket. This has to be thwarted, now.
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Audi is still the first option. K-State is still the same size as they were two weeks ago, and much of the foul trouble that plagued the WIldcats can be attributed to faulty attempts to stop the 6’ 3” center. K-State will have to prove that they have figured out a new way that works.
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Everyone is the primary deep threat. With rain in the forecast in Manhattan, Iowa State needs to let it rain inside Bramlage Coliseum. With so many versatile threats, there are too many options for Kansas State to ignore any of them.
