U.S. Men’s Swimming Tiers, Part 2: The Rosters of Today and Tomorrow
The U.S. men’s swimming program is hitting a natural calendar reset. Six World Championships have been sandwiched between the last two Olympics in a pandemic-condensed cycle between Tokyo and Paris, a busy 40 or so months. The NCAA season will give way to a more normal summer of World Championships in an odd-numbered year, then the sights will turn in earnest to the Los Angeles Games three years on, with everything in the intervening time means to that end.
It comes at an opportune time for the U.S. men’s swim program. We waxed poetically (and analytically) in Part 1 about the magnitude of the struggles in 2024. Now it’s time to turn to the future. The strength of the U.S. has long been not just stars at the top but depth throughout, not just the Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps types but guys throughout the program who can turn in a special Olympic performance or fight their way toward a medal that may have been unexpected. It’s what the women’s program is doing, and it’s part of what the men will surely want to get back to.
Part 1 of this Zach Lowe-inspired assessment of U.S. men’s swimming’s depth assessed the guys at the top. Part 2 looks at who is likely to fill out the rest of the teams. A total of 58 different individuals have represented the U.S. at major international events since the Tokyo Olympics – at Short- and Long-Course World Championships, at the Pan Am Games and at the Paris Olympics. We’ll do the job of sorting them all into tiers as part of this, and to finish with a look into the future, we’ll posit a handful of names who are likely to be part of that next group of however many internationals populate the next three years of U.S. men’s swimming.
Read Part 1 of the U.S. Men’s Swimming Tiers here.
The Up/Downs: Shaine Casas, Luca Urlando, Matt Fallon, Josh Matheny
Matt Fallon; Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
The Olympics can be an inflection point in a swimmer’s career. It can be the pinnacle never to be reached again, or it can be the jumping off point to heights. The validation of finally getting there can be freeing, or it can lead to satisfaction and complacency. It’s difficult to ascertain in the moment which way it will take a swimmer, but it’s often obvious retrospectively.
Both Shaine Casas and Luca Urlando spoke at Olympic Trials about the emotional release of getting to an Olympics. Urlando had been ticketed as the next Phelps for his butterfly talent as a teen, then endured injuries for years. Casas excelled in the NCAA pool and in short-course global competition but never quite put it together with the Olympics on the line. He’s come up small internationally on a few occasions – 29th in the 50 fly at Worlds in 2023 and missing the 100 back final at 2024 Worlds come to mind.
Both banished those demons in Indianapolis. Both have spots in the American swimming hierarchy waiting for them – Urlando in a wide open butterfly field to which he’s added a post-Paris American record in short-course yards, Casas as the second 200 IMer to Carson Foster and with uncertainty in backstroke.
The men’s breaststroke field may be the most perplexing outcome of the summer of 2024. With his silver medal, Nic Fink remained the class of American male breaststroking. Josh Matheny recovered from disappointment in the 100 at Olympic Trials to earn a place in the 200. Matt Fallon was outstanding at Trials with an American record in the 200 and struggled in Paris, not making finals. Both are 22. Both are talented enough to grow into international contenders. Both benefit from uncertainty in international breaststroke – what is Adam Peaty’s future? Which Qin Haiyang is the real one? How quickly will the European contingent age? Neither has yet put together the pieces, which is equal parts frustrating and tantalizing.
The “Show Me You Can Do That Again”: Dare Rose, Jack Aikins, Destin Lasco, Baylor Nelson, Henry McFadden
This category is reserved for guys who’ve proven their ability at selection meets, just not in an Olympic year, yet who still seem to have room for improvement.
Dare Rose had a great 2023, winning bronze at Worlds in the 100 fly. He missed the Olympics by .62 seconds in the 200 fly and by .04 in the 100 fly at Trials. He was more of a medal threat than some of the guys who got on the plane in other events. Four years is a long time for a 22-year-old, but he’s at least performed well at big meets.
Jack Aikins finished with the sixth fastest time in the world in the 200 back in 2024, his best time of 1:54.78 at Olympic Trials faster than every Paris time shy of Hubert Kos’ winning 1:54.26. But it was third among Americans, which left him a long way from Nanterre.
Destin Lasco faced one of the toughest decisions of Trials, having to go all-in on the 100 free at the expense of the 200 IM and finishing seventh, by two tenths, for a chance at a relay spot. He deals with the conundrum of his best event being the 200 back – he swam it at the World Championships in 2023, though he failed to escape semis – with his best shot at making international teams being the 100 free.
Baylor Nelson is in a similar boat: He made Worlds in 2023 in the 800 free relay, but he’s probably best as a 200 IMer (especially in short-course yards). He’s Foster light in that regard. Going all in on one or the other — Foster and Casas are intimidating presences in the IM – might shift his direction.
Henry McFadden is an interesting case. He went from a relay spot at Worlds in 2023 to 11th in the 200 free at NCAAs in 2024 to 17th in the 200 free and 14th in the 100 free at Olympic Trials. He’s young and has upside, but the lane of exclusively 200 freestylers is crowded.
The Probably Peaked: Charlie Swanson, Jake Mitchell, Jake Magahey, Trenton Julian
Charlie Swanson; Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
Charlie Swanson made his first Olympics at age 26. He’s got two Olympic relay medals (one gold) and individual gold from the Pan Am Games in 2019. If that’s the sum of his career, that’s pretty good.
Jake Mitchell has swum in an Olympic final, finishing eighth in the 400 free in Tokyo, and has a Worlds medal. His time trial in Omaha to hit the A standard was both epically clutch and a consequence of the distance program’s decline. He’s still just 23, but finishing eighth in the 400 and seventh in the 200 at Trials is tough to swallow.
Jake Magahey swam at Short-Course Worlds in 2022 on a period of ascendancy for the Georgia swimmer. He’s still chasing the NCAA title/record he set in the 500 free as a freshman in 2021, and it seems unlikely he’ll return to the halcyon days.
This category is the likely spot for most of the 2024 Pan Ams class, guys who’ve had solid college careers and were rewarded with a chance to represent the U.S. Pan Ams can be a springboard for some – the 2019 Pan Ams featured eventual Olympians like Phoebe Bacon, Alex Walsh, Annie Lazor, Swanson (one cycle later) and Fink – but it’s more often a valedictory honor.
Trenton Julian is 26. The closest he got at Olympic Trials was seventh in the 200 fly. With nine Worlds medals, including in December in Budapest, he’ll probably go down as a better short-course swimmer. It’s hard to see a path to an Olympic or major international long-course meet.
Fool me once: Luke Whitlock, Ross Dant
A mini-rant: Since the Olympics added the 1,500 for the women in Tokyo – and thus the 800 for the men – only seven of 12 American men’s qualifiers in the 400, 800 and 1,500 have made the Olympic final. (They went 2-for-6 at the 2023 World Championships, with the only two named Bobby Finke.) For Aaron Shackell’s eighth-place finish in the 400 free to be easily in the top half of male distance performances at the Olympics the last two cycles is damning with faint praise.
Luke Whitlock was a non-factor in Paris, finishing 18th in the 1,500 free. Ross Dant was 19th in the 800 at the Fukuoka World Championships. Both did great to get to major meets but were outclassed once there. Whitlock, at age 18, has time on his side.
Fool me three times: David Johnston, Charlie Clark
David Johnston qualified for the Tokyo Olympics, then cratered to 18th in the 1,500 free. He was 17th in the 400 free at Worlds in 2023, then didn’t make the final in either the 400 free or 800 free at Worlds in 2024. (His fifth place in the 400 IM at Doha Worlds is harder to parse, even beyond the diminished field at the shoe-horned Olympic-year event).
Charlie Clark qualified for each of the last three World Championships. He’s 0-for-4 in getting to finals. The second qualifier from the U.S. should be better than that, even if global distance talent is ascendant at the moment. Their spots in the American distance hierarchy are there for the taking.
(Honorable mention to Thomas Heilman, who’ll end up in a different category, but does have two international meets in which he’s qualified in the 100 fly without yet making even a semifinal much less a final. The alarm doesn’t start sounding until age 18.)
The On Any Given Day: Jonny Kulow, Coby Carrozza, AJ Pouch, Arsenio Bustos, Mason Laur, Daniel Matheson, Liam Bell
It’ll take some doing, but any of the above could find their way into open spots in the U.S. Men’s Swimming firmament. Jonny Kulow, Coby Carrozza, Arsenio Bustos and Mason Laur are all 2024 Pan Am Games vets with the most potential.
Kulow’s long-course 100 free is his best shot, though it remains to be seen if the sprinter can crank out that distance over that course consistently. He was 10th at Trials in addition to the epic 50 free swim-off battle. Carrozza was 15th in the semifinals of the 200 free at Trials; maybe he can step it up to 400 meters if openings present themselves? Bustos was fourth in the 200 IM at NCAAs last year, difficult as that path is. He was sixth at Trials, a meet in which he entered events in three strokes. Laur was third in the 200 fly at Trials, .29 behind Urlando. The combination of his age (he’s a true senior at Florida) and the openness of his best event may offer him the best chance of this group.
AJ Pouch made Short-Course Worlds after finishing third in the 200 breast at Trials, .19 behind Matheny. If Fink and other elder breaststrokers vacate the scene, Pouch is in position to pounce.
Daniel Matheson’s career at Arizona State isn’t over yet. But he’s a fifth-year senior who has yet to make an A final at NCAAs, though he was third at Trials in the 800 free and fourth in the 1,500. He could yet catch an opening for the second spot behind Finke.
Liam Bell warrants mention because … well anytime we get a chance to reiterate that Bell went from the C final at SEC Championships in 2021 to the NCAA champion in 2024 in the 100 breast, we’re going to. He’s the NCAA record holder, who went from the youngest qualifier at Olympic Trials in 2016 to not swimming in 2021. If the breaststroke field opens up, why not Bell, who was fourth in the 100 at Trials?
The next gen stars: Thomas Heilman, Keaton Jones, Aaron Shackell
Keaton Jones; Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
Thomas Heilman is the great hope. When you take down age-group records set by Phelps, when you become a teenager debuting in the Olympics in butterfly, you’re going to draw comparisons to the greatest of all time. Heilman has dealt with them well, by and large. There have been blips, but they look at this point like the inconsistency that comes with brilliance. He didn’t make the semifinals at the 2023 World Championships in Fukuoka in the 100 fly but finished fourth in the 200 fly. He missed the semifinals in the 100 at the Paris Olympics and the finals of the 200, then got silver in the 400 medley relay (swimming prelims). He’s 17, with fixable issues and generational talent.
Keaton Jones was one of the most pleasant surprises of Olympic Trials, and he backed that by finishing fifth in the 200 back in Paris. He’s both been 1:54 and found a way to go 1:55.39 in the final to threaten for a medal. The 200 back is an open event globally – Lukas Martens, whose only international medals were in distance freestyle, made an Olympic final – and the uncertainty around Ryan Murphy leaves it relatively vulnerable in the U.S. The question with Jones is where else he can go event-wise. He finished 25th at Trials in the 200 free, then scratched the 100 back and 100 free to focus on the 200 back.
Put Aaron Shackell in that Trials surprise category, if only because he may be ahead of schedule. The 400 is a historic weakness for this program: In 10 Olympics dating back to Seoul, the Americans have just five bronze medals and nothing better. It may be too much to put on Shackell the expectation to end that in the next four years. But the 400 is the wide open middle ground in distance, with the Finkes and Wiffens dropping only as far as 800 and the Popovicis maxing out at 200.
The ones to watch: Rex Maurer, Will Modglin, Luka Mijatovic, Maximus Williamson, Daniel Diehl, Luke Ellis
There’s a slew of swimmers who’ve made an impact on the national age-group record board in the last few years. That’s never a guarantee of senior success; we won’t name names, but you can check the records for standout junior swimmers who never lived out their promise in the senior ranks, probably a greater number than those who did. But the following group includes some of those most likely to make that difficult jump, in part for the breadth and depth of their abilities.
Maximus Williamson holds the coveted NAG for 17-18 boys over 100 meters. He’s also got the 17-18 SCY 200 IM mark. That’s impressive versatility. He didn’t have a great Trials – going from second in prelims of the IM to ninth in semis was a bit of a downer. But he’s one for the future.
Rex Maurer was 26th in the 100 free, 11th in the 200 and ninth in the 400 free at Trials. His American record of 4:04.45 in the 500 free in November might well be the moment of arrival. If the path to the 400 free in Los Angeles is so open, Maurer seems poised to take advantage.
Luka Mijatovic owns nine national age-group records in the 13-14 category, and he’s already added the 15-16 marks for SCY 500 and LCM 400 free. He’s a sophomore in high school. His ceiling is astronomical.
Will Modglin was excellent at Trials, making finals in the 100 back (he finished sixth) and the 200 IM (eighth). He’s got a ton of versatility and time to develop it.
Daniel Diehl being the fastest junior 100 backstroker of all time is no small feat. He made the final of the 200 back at Olympic Trials and lost out in a swim-off to Shackell to get into the 200 free final. It’s a solid start.
In the developmental hand-wringing, it’s worth mentioning Junior Pan Pacs as a barometer. The U.S. men won 11 of 14 gold medals at the 2018 meet and seven of 14 in 2016, with five of six relay wins combined. In the last two editions, in 2022 and 2024, those figures have fallen to five individual golds and two relays at each edition.
The 2022 winners were Diehl, Heilman, Shackell, Williamson and Zhier Fan, with Heilman and Williamson adding two individual silvers each. In 2024, Mijatovic won two golds, joined by Logan Robinson in the 200 fly, Gregg Enoch in the 200 IM and Luke Ellis in the 800 free.
Ellis is one to watch here. He owns the 17-18 NAG in the 1,650. He won the 800 free and was second in the 1,500 free and 400 IM at Junior Pan Pacs. The Sandpipers product is bound for Indiana, two trustworthy programs for sustaining distance success. He also finished fifth in the 1,500 and qualified fifth in the 800 before scratching finals at Trials.
