UCF faces an uphill climb over the final month of the men’s basketball season if it wants to reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019.
An untimely four-game losing streak has dropped the Knights out of the 68-team field, according to both ESPN and CBS Sports, but all hope is not lost. UCF has another huge chance for a Quad 1 home win Tuesday night, and its Big 12 opponents are slightly less imposing during the stretch run.
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It’s also possible UCF could boost its résumé further with a deep run in the conference tournament, beginning March 11 at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. As things stand, the Knights would likely square off with Cincinnati in the first round.
Let’s evaluate where the Knights are entering the second week of February.
UCF basketball NCAA Tournament résumé for 2025 March Madness
UCF NET rankings: No. 72 (Last week: No. 64)
All rankings entering Monday
Quad 1 record: 3-7
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Wins: Texas A&M, at Texas Tech, at Arizona State
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Losses: Wisconsin (neutral site), Kansas, at Arizona, Houston, at Iowa State, at Kansas, at Baylor
Quad 2 record: 0-3
Quad 3 record: 5-0
Quad 4 record: 5-0
Wins over both TCU and Jacksonville briefly bumped up a quadrant last week, but reverted back into the bottom two over the weekend. It’s been nearly a month since the Knights put a Quad 1 win on the board, and recent home losses to BYU and Cincinnati dealt serious damage to the overall résumé.
UCF KenPom rankings: No. 67 (Last week: No. 58)
All rankings entering Monday
Offensive efficiency: No. 46
Defensive efficiency: No. 119
UCF’s defensive efficiency rating dropped 37 spots in the space of a week. The Knights surrendered 90-plus points to both Cincinnati and Baylor, and they have now done so seven times this season — compared to five times across Johnny Dawkins’ first eight years in charge.
UCF basketball bracketology projections
ESPN: Next four out
CBS: On the bubble
Both ESPN and CBS had the Knights in the NCAA Tournament field last week, with the latter outlet putting them on the 10-line for seeding.
UCF’s No. 15 strength of schedule is a huge plus, as are impressive wins over projected top-four seeds Texas A&M and Texas Tech, but it’s not currently viewed as enough to win over the selection committee.
UCF basketball results last week
Feb. 5: 93-83 loss vs. Cincinnati — Cincinnati snapped a four-game losing streak at the Knights’ expense, finishing off a disappointing back-to-back homestand. The Big 12’s third-worst scoring offense had its best day since early November as guards Day Day Thomas and Jizzle James combined for 35 points. UCF allowed 56 points in the paint, and the Bearcats’ first Quad 1 win in seven tries.
Feb. 8: 91-76 loss at Baylor — Baylor pulled away from UCF with a pivotal 16-0 run early in the second half, shooting 60% from the field over the final 20 minutes. Norchad Omier recorded another double-double (18 points, 12 rebounds), projected NBA lottery pick VJ Edgecombe scored 17 and the Bears got a further 40 points from the bench trio of Langston Love, Jalen Celestine and Jayden Nunn. Keyshawn Hall paced four Knights in double figures with 19 points, adding eight rebounds and two assists.
UCF basketball opponents this week
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Feb. 11: Iowa State, 7 p.m.
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Feb. 15: at Colorado, 2 p.m.
Milan Momcilovic returned after a month-long absence due to a hand injury over the weekend as Iowa State battered TCU 82-52. The Cyclones, who began last week No. 8 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, scored 108 points in its last head-to-head meeting with UCF.
Colorado, meanwhile, has lost 12 straight games and is yet to record a league win in its return to the Big 12 — including a 75-74 nailbiter in Orlando last month. The Buffaloes’ NET ranking of 110 would still classify as a Quad 2 road win for UCF.
How NCAA Tournament committee selects at-large teams
Record: The team’s overall record, conference record and non-conference record.
Strength of schedule: The strength of the opponents the team played against.
Head-to-head results: The results of games between the teams being compared.
Conference championships: Whether a conference championship was won in the regular season or tournament.
Common opponents: The results of games against common opponents.
Adjusted Net Efficiency (NET): The NCAA’s preferred metric measuring a team’s overall performance during the regular season.
Team Value Index: A results-oriented component of the NET that ranks teams based on who they beat and where they played.
Rating Percentage Index (RPI): A formula that ranks teams using a team’s winning percentage, opponents’ success and opponents’ strength of schedule
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: UCF Knights basketball: NCAA Tournament résumé as of Feb. 10
