UCL talking points: Are Arsenal favorites? Is anyone game enough to write-off Madrid?

And then there were eight! The UEFA Champions League round of 16 is done and dusted, with a number of heavyweights sent packing.

Real Madrid proved too strong for Manchester City, Chelsea were taught a lesson by Paris Saint-Germain, and Bodo/Glimt‘s Cinderella story came to an abrupt end at the hands of Sporting CP.

Meanwhile, Bayern Munich, Arsenal and Barcelona call cruised through their ties, making their respective claims to be favorites to lift the famous UCL trophy in Budapest on May 30.

So, what to make of it all?

Luckily, ESPN FC writers Mark Ogden, Gab Marcotti, Alex Kirkland, and Tom Hamilton are here to break down the action as it happened and look ahead to the quarterfinals.

– Champions League’s most memorable comebacks in modern era
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– Lindop: Roared on by Anfield, Liverpool found the hunger they’ve been missing

Q1. Again, Man City are out of the Champions League far earlier than anyone would have expected, and their record in Europe’s top competition under Pep Guardiola just isn’t good: one title, one runner-up medal, three straight exits at the hands of Real Madrid, and a string of quarterfinal defeats. Where’s the disconnect considering how many domestic titles they’ve won together, and what (if anything) made this latest defeat different from previous ones?

Kirkland: Pep’s record against Madrid in the Champions League — knocked out by the 15-time European Cup winners in 2022, 2024, 2025 and 2026 — is quite incredible, especially given the fact that for much of that time, Madrid really haven’t been very good. Guardiola likes to point to Madrid’s European pedigree and aura in this competition, contrasted with City’s relative inexperience, but are we really buying that? To me, it just sounds like an excuse. City had the quality, and more than enough experience after 15 years at this level, to eliminate this Madrid team. You could say the same last season, and arguably in 2022 and 2024 as well.

On this latest defeat: Pep’s correct that for the first 15-20 minutes of both legs, City were the better team by a long way, but they didn’t do anything with it. The final ball wasn’t there in the first leg, for all of Jérémy Doku‘s dribbling, while Madrid keeper Thibaut Courtois kept City at bay in the second. And overall, it’s hard to avoid the feeling that Madrid get into Guardiola’s head every single time, forcing him to overthink his tactics and team selection even more than usual. That was true this season, and it’s been true in previous years.

Ogden: It’s the Champions League, and it’s really hard to win it. Only Real have managed to crack the code of making success in the competition feel routine. City haven’t won as many as they should have, but over the years, some great Juventus, Manchester United and Arsenal sides also promised much more than delivered. Guardiola’s City have had the misfortune of being great at the same time as a heavyweight like Real has been making it look it easy.

But one thing that hasn’t helped City — and Pep has raised this in the past — is the ambivalent approach to the Champions League by the club’s fans. They don’t treat it like the special competition that it is: the Etihad is never a cauldron of atmosphere on big European nights, and only 1,000 fans made the trip to the Bernabéu for the first leg. City fans just don’t get it like United, Liverpool, Chelsea or Arsenal supporters do, and when the team needs the fans to drive them on, they just don’t.

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Burley: Man City were taught a lesson by Real Madrid in UCL

Craig Burley reacts to Manchester City’s Champions League exit against Real Madrid.

Hamilton: If you take each defeat in isolation, there are differing reasons behind Guardiola’s heartbreak: in this instance, they were far too profligate in the first leg and just couldn’t get a hand on Federico Valverde. In the second leg, Vinícius Júnior dominated them and they were hamstrung by Bernardo Silva‘s red card.

Back in 2022, it was a freak result, with Rodrygo scoring twice in injury time to put Madrid through That was City choking. In 2024, City dominated both legs, but simply couldn’t finish — leading to penalty shootout heartbreak, complete with a performance for the ages from Andriy Lunin. And then last year, City were simply second best, unable to lay a glove on Kylian Mbappé. But uniting 2022, 2024, 2025 and 2026 are strange selection calls by Guardiola, contributing to the feeling — like Alex says — that Real Madrid have somehow got in his head.

Also, perhaps it’s a control thing. There’s more chaos in the Champions League than in the Premier League. City can control the ebb and flow of a league campaign, remaining there or thereabouts over 38 matches, but against Madrid, they’re exposed to mayhem in the Champions League knockouts, something they just can’t compartmentalise.

Marcotti: I don’t think there’s that much of a narrative thread to Pep’s Champions League underachievements, as Tom points out. Different seasons, different circumstances. Where I disagree with Tom: while Guardiola did make unorthodox selection choices in past seasons, he’s been making them all year this season, and that’s because City simply aren’t that good this year. They weren’t much to write home about last season either, but at least they had the alibi of Rodri‘s injury and the lack of summer signings.

This season is different, because he’s been fiddling with the team all season long. Antoine Semenyo right, Semenyo left, Semenyo central, Semenyo bench. Trying 4-2-3-1, 4-2-2-2 and 4-1-4-1 formations. Rayan Cherki in, Rayan Cherki out. Phil Foden (mostly) out. Nico O’Reilly moves to fullback, then back to attacking midfield, then back to fullback. Tijjani Reijnders in and out. The list goes on and on.

Were there freak circumstances in this year’s defeat to Real Madrid, like Courtois wonder-saves and Valverde’s exploits? Sure. But it’s City who made the margins between these two teams so small that even this bruised, battered and despondent Real Madrid could knock them out. That’s what’s different. City simply haven’t been on a par with previous seasons for the past two years.

Q2. The Premier League teams have looked dreadful in the knockout rounds — Liverpool and Arsenal’s big wins helped a little, though European clubs won 30-17 on aggregate in the Round of 16 — with even the Gunners looking sluggish in recent weeks. Barcelona and Real Madrid are fallible, and only Bayern have shown the kind of ruthlessness required to win this competition. Is anyone really good this season? Are we heading for the worst Champions League in several years as a result?

Marcotti: They’re two different things, teams not being good and the competition not being good. Two indifferent sides can produce excitement and quality. But yes, we can point out flaws (sometimes serious flaws) in every single quarterfinalist. To varying degrees perhaps — Bayern and Arsenal have fewer blemishes — but nobody looks dominant.

There are different factors at play I guess. But I think we tend to have short memories and all it will take to make us forget about the flaws is a couple convincing performances from here on out. If Barça’s defenders momentary lapse like they usually do, if Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard restore quality in possession to Arsenal, if Mohamed Salah turns the corner and Arne Slot finds some defensive order, if Courtois keeps making saves and Mbappe stays fit and keeps banging them in…. We have short memories in football.

Hamilton: A lot of “ifs” there from Gab, but fundamentally, I disagree with the question. Arsenal looked far from sluggish against Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday and scored two wonderful goals. They should have had a couple more. PSG were ruthless against Chelsea, while Real Madrid comfortably outplayed the new-look Man City. Barcelona’s second-half performance against Newcastle United at Camp Nou was on another level. And then there’s Sporting’s remarkable comeback against Bodo/Glimt. There were some uninspiring second legs — Galatasaray were poor, and Atalanta offered little resistance, while Spurs arrived at the party far, far too late. But overall, it’s been great fun. This is subjective, but we’re seeing ridiculous results, great goals, and some of the biggest teams in Europe peaking at the right time. And we’ve also had a goalkeeper replaced after 17 minutes. Maybe it’s the excitement of seeing Eberechi Eze‘s goal live on Tuesday night, but overall, I’ve enjoyed it.

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Leboeuf & Burley question Rosenior for tactics note at 8-2 down

Frank Leboeuf and Craig Burley speak about Liam Rosenior giving out a tactics note in the 84th minute against PSG.

Odgen: PSG are starting to look good again and Bayern blew Atalanta away, so those are the two sides I would watch out for. Both are on the same side of the draw, so they can’t meet in the final, but I think either of them could emerge as a truly dominant team this season. It’s not ideal to judge sides after the league phase, or even the round of 16, because we don’t see the very best of them until the heat is on in the quarterfinals and beyond. Of course, City, Chelsea, Newcastle and Spurs haven’t made it that far, but none of them were ever good enough to win the competition this year. Arsenal are the Premier League’s best hope and they could bludgeon their way to glory with their set-pieces, but I don’t think they will beat PSG are Bayern over two legs. The same applies to Real and Barça.

Kirkland: Bludgeoning their way to glory: that’s the title for Arsenal’s end-of-season review sorted, right there. But like Mark says, let’s pass judgement on these teams, and the tournament, at the end. We won’t really be talking about the round of 16 by the end of the season. We’ll be talking about the memorable moments from the quarters, and the semis, and the final. But I think some of these teams are really quite good. I’d put Arsenal, Bayern and PSG in that category. I’d say Barcelona could join them there, with some fine tuning. I think Real Madrid are starting to find themselves, although they don’t qualify as really good yet. And I think Atlético Madrid, on their day, have shown they’re capable of really good performances, even if they’re too inconsistent. But yeah, like Tom, I enjoyed this round of 16 a lot. Loads of goals and drama. Bring on the quarters.

Q3. Let’s look at Liverpool. How did this team look so bad against Spurs, and so good against Galatasaray? Mohamed Salah became the 11th player to reach 50 Champions League goals, and he did it even after missing a penalty in the first half with the worst Panenka you’ll ever see. Does this emphatic win say more about them and what it’ll take to turn things around, or more about Galatasaray, who’ve lost 21 of their previous 26 road games in this competition?

Hamilton: This match said more about Galatasaray than it does Liverpool. It was an absolute horror show from the Turkish side, complete with both Victor Osimhen and Noa Lang going off injured. Liverpool could and should have scored more, and while it will be remembered for Salah’s second-half wondergoal (and abysmal first-half penalty) this was a procession for Liverpool, including a farcical disallowed goal at the end of the match. This was exactly the type of result and match Slot would’ve dreamt of after that draw with Spurs at the weekend. But make no mistake, Liverpool aren’t anywhere near the level we saw last season. Dominik Szoboszlai is playing some incredible football, and Florian Wirtz is bedding in nicely after a slow start, but there’s still work to be done. Galatasaray looked inferior, and a world away from the side we saw take a 1-0 lead last week. Away from that formidable atmosphere at home, they looked very ordinary.

Ogden: I will never make the mistake of writing Liverpool off in the Champions League — the Istanbul final against AC Milan in 2005 and the 2019 semifinal second-leg against Barcelona are just two reasons why. As a club, they always seem to find something else in this competition. But let’s take the romance out of it and get real — this Liverpool team is unreliable at the back and lacks legs and energy in midfield, so they should be overrun by PSG in the quarterfinals. That game will be a huge step up in quality for Slot’s side after Galatasaray, who once again collapsed like a pack of cards on English soil. Liverpool will know that it will get much tougher from here and they could beat PSG. But despite me insisting that I would never write them off, I am going to do exactly that because PSG will be too strong.

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Robson tips Bayern Munich to beat Real Madrid in the Champions League

Stewart Robson makes his prediction for Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid in the Champions League quarterfinals.

Marcotti: It’s hard to judge Liverpool given what Galatasaray showed (and I can’t get the horrific performance against Spurs out of my mind). With Osimhen unfit and Okan Buruk’s side already prone to collapse on the road, you sort of have to grade them on a curve.

I’m not sure they’ve turned the corner and the stretch run in the Premier League is bound to take a lot out of them. Yes, they have individual who can sparkle, but they’re a far cry from where they were last season. And Joe Gomez is still the first option off the bench at the back. So yeah, I was very happy fo Salah and his goal (shutting up the haters and all that nonsense about him wanting to go to Saudi Arabia) but let’s be real about where he is this season.

Kirkland: This result at Anfield was entirely, completely predictable. In fact, I’m pretty sure I predicted it in last week’s talking points. As Mark and Gab say, a second-leg collapse from Galatasaray always felt highly likely given their away record. I wouldn’t take too much from it in terms of looking ahead to Liverpool’s chances against PSG, which I would say are pretty slim.

Q4. Is it better to have little to play for domestically (Bayern Munich, Atlético Madrid) when it comes to putting on a show in the Champions League, or does a challenge in their respective leagues keep you sharp (Arsenal, Real, Barça, Sporting, Paris Saint-Germain)? There’s something to be said for the “fresher” teams looking better.

Marcotti: It’s almost a philosophical question of the “iron sharpens iron” variety. I think you do need some level of sporting tension to keep you going, with Bayern and PSG historically being Exhibit 1 and 1A: their domestic dominance sometimes translated into lackadaisical performances in Europe. (PSG don’t have that issue this year as, for now at least, they do seem to be in a title race).

Where not having goals domestically can really help you, I think when it allows you to find talent and moments of form from players you only view as squad members. In that sense, a side like Atlético, who are deep and who rotate heavily anyway, can really benefit. Real Madrid are tougher to judge because they’ve had a zillion injuries, while PSG have been up and down when Luis Enrique has rotated. It’s a difficult balance to get right. A year ago, Internazionale were on track for a Treble an ended up empty-handed.

Hamilton: History suggests this is a double-edged sword. Liverpool had a huge lead in the Premier League back in the 2018-19 season, but collapsed at the quarterfinal stage to Atlético Madrid. Barcelona dominated LaLiga in 2017-18 but then came that capitulation at AS Roma. And the same went for Manchester City in 2017-18 who were streets ahead in the Premier League, only to lose to Liverpool in the UCL’s final eight. On the flip side, Bayern used their huge lead in the Bundesliga to keep the team fresh for Europe in 2019-20, while Real Madrid have experience here and PSG enjoyed a huge lead in Ligue 1, and tied up the Champions League too.

So, without meaning to get splinters from sitting on the fence, I think we’ll get a clearer picture here after the next round. Bayern-Real Madrid is the perfect test case to figure out an answer to this, and I expect Bayern to come through. Bodo/Glimt showed the pitfalls of coming into a knockout match cold, with their league season finished. But for Bayern, they can mix and match their team, save emotional energy for Europe, and throw everything at Real.

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Can Atletico Madrid pull off another two-legged win over Barcelona?

The ESPN FC crew wonder if Atletico Madrid can repeat their Copa del Rey win over Barcelona in the Champions League quarterfinals.

Ogden: I don’t want to play a violin on behalf of the Premier League teams here, but it’s a reality that they find it incredibly tough going in the closing weeks of the season because there are just too many games in England. City and Manchester United both achieved Trebles, but there’s a reason why it has only ever happened twice. If Arsenal are still chasing a Quadruple in late-April/early-May, they risk the same fate that befell Liverpool in 2022, who went into the final two weeks of the season chasing all four trophies and ended with just the domestic cups.

It’s not quite so congested in Spain, Germany or France, so clubs from those countries can manage their schedule a little better. It’s not easy in those countries, but it’s easier and if Bayern and PSG have their domestic titles wrapped early, it will only help them in the Champions League.

Kirkland: I think the ideal scenario is probably some sort of halfway house: having a little to play for domestically just to make sure everybody remains focused, without being caught up in a life-and-death, neck-and-neck, gruelling title race. The key thing is being able to rotate, make the most of your squad, and avoid injuries and burnout. That’s the biggest challenge for Arsenal right now, competing — for now — in four competitions. For Madrid and Barça, a four-point gap in LaLiga means neither of them can afford to take their eyes off the ball there, whereas Atlético are virtually assured of a top four finish but 13 points off Barça at the top, and can really prioritise the Champions League now. So it’s a factor that favours Atlético and Bayern, but it’s not necessarily decisive.

Q5. Now that the four quarterfinal match-ups are set — Paris Saint-Germain vs. Liverpool and Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich in the silver path, with Barcelona vs. Atlético and Arsenal vs. Sporting CP in the blue path — who are you picking to advance to the semifinals, and why?

Hamilton: I expect PSG, Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Arsenal to progress. PSG should get an advantage from the home leg to take back to Anfield, and it’ll need some Champions League magic to see Slot’s side progress. Atlético’s mad fixture list could count against them when it comes to Barça, while Arsenal will dispatch Sporting, but should be on their guard against complacency after that second-leg performance from the Portuguese side against Bodo/Glimt. And Real Madrid-Bayern Munich will be fascinating, but I just think there’s something about this Bayern side at the moment. They brushed past Atalanta and with the league sewn up, they can conserve their emotional energy for the Champions League.

Kirkland: PSG, Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Arsenal. Can I justify saying Madrid will knock out Bayern? No, not really. Objectively, I think Bayern are a better team. But I didn’t expect Madrid to eliminate City either, and here we are. Madrid are starting to come together, Vinícius is happy and on form, Mbappé is back, and Alvaro Arbeloa has found a midfield system — with youngster Thiago Pitarch alongside Aurélien Tchouaméni, and Valverde marauding out wide — which works. They’ll get through, somehow. Barça vs. Atleti is hard to call. The last time they met over two legs was in the Copa del Rey semis, and that ended 4-3 to Atleti on aggregate. But Barça look a better team than they did a month ago, so I’d back them to go through.

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Moreno: No team in the world can attack like Barcelona

Ale Moreno reacts to a devastating attacking display from Barcelona in their 7-2 Champions League demolition of Newcastle United.

Marcotti: I think three of these four are a toss-up frankly. Arsenal will be heavily favored against Sporting as you’d expect (but let’s not forget how their first leg against Bayer Leverkusen (against whom they were also heavy favorites went and what it took for them to avoid defeat) but the others are really close.

Liverpool, for all their foibles and inconsistencies this season, match up pretty well with a PSG side who hit or miss (don’t let the gaudy scoreline against Chelsea fool you … it came off an xG of just over 2.0). Bayern may be slight favorites over Real Madrid in their current form, but will some of the injured guys be back in three weeks’ time? And with Courtois back there, everything is in play. As for Barça, as Alex says, let’s not forget what happened the last time they faced Atlético in a two-legged format. So, since you’re forcing me to choose, I’ll go Liverpool, Arsenal, Real Madrid and Atlético. But it’s just a guess … that’s what makes this fun.

Ogden: Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich is the one that’s just too close to call. There’s real history between these two, a long-standing rivalry that Bayern used to dominate until Real balanced it up in recent years, but I’m going to go with Bayern just because they have a better all-round team — right now — than Real. But if Jude Bellingham is back and fully fit, it could edge it towards Real. I can’t see Arsenal slipping up against Sporting, although the Portuguese team did knock Mikel Arteta’s side out of the Europa League in 2023. Painful memories perhaps, but Arsenal are a much stronger side now. Barça vs. Atleti? Barça can’t defend, so Julián Álvarez could be their downfall, but Hansi Flick has so much firepower in his side that you would back them to come out on top eventually. And PSG vs. Liverpool should be a PSG win, but who knows with this Liverpool side? Ultimately, they haven’t had a big win for ages now and they will need to find two huge performances to beat Luis Enrique’s side and I just don’t see it happening. So it’s Bayern, Arsenal, Barcelona and PSG for me.