Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
As always, Thursday was a massive day in women’s college hoops. Several matchups had major seeding implications, including Vanderbilt’s victory over Texas and TCU’s win over Baylor.
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But it wasn’t just the top teams that battled for their March Madness spots. There also was action on the bubble, with Virginia playing California and Virginia Tech taking on Stanford — all four bubble teams.
Let’s get to the bracket:
The Athletic breaks down the latest projections for the women’s NCAA Tournament. (The Athletic)
The Athletic breaks down the latest projections for the women’s NCAA Tournament. (The Athletic)
The Athletic breaks down the latest projections for the women’s NCAA Tournament. (The Athletic)
UCLA overtakes UConn for the overall No. 1 seed
What UCLA has done in the Big Ten this season is extraordinary. The Bruins are 14-0 in a stacked conference, with wins over Ohio State, USC, Nebraska, Minnesota, Maryland, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan and, most recently, Michigan State. All of those opponents will be playing in March. The Bruins also earned an incredible 14 Quad 1 victories, with just one loss this season — a 76-65 defeat at the hands of Texas.
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So how can UCLA surpass undefeated UConn for the top overall seed? It comes down to the strength of the Big Ten. UConn is unable to gain quality wins in the Big East, which means, despite a challenging nonconference schedule, the Huskies’ resume remains essentially the same week after week, and UCLA can stack wins over other top teams. The Bruins, who own the country’s toughest schedule, have a 14-6 advantage over UConn in Quad 1 wins.
Vandy earns back No. 1 seed
An emphatic 86-70 win over Texas, which was the final No. 1 seed, earns Vanderbilt a spot in the top group. The Commodores were previously a No. 1 seed after wins over LSU and Michigan, but back-to-back losses to South Carolina and Ole Miss brought them back to the 2-line. Three straight wins over Kentucky, Oklahoma and Texas are enough for Vandy to overtake the Longhorns.
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Head-to-head matchups play into seeding decisions when two teams have similar resumes. In this case, their NET rankings are close, with Texas at No. 4 and Vandy at No. 7. Texas has eight Quad 1 wins to Vandy’s six, but the Commodores won their meeting in such a dramatic fashion that the head-to-head holds more weight.
Duke vs. LSU for No. 2 seed
After Duke started its season 3-6, it was hard to imagine it as a host team in March Madness. Honestly, it was hard to picture the Blue Devils in the tournament at all. But coach Kara Lawson proved there is a method to her madness. Their early schedule was intense, with games against Baylor, West Virginia, South Carolina, UCLA and LSU.
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Meanwhile, LSU did the opposite, easing into the season with an easy nonconference schedule before battling in the SEC. Both teams have four Quad 1 wins and similar NET rankings, so like Vandy and Texas, that head-to-head matchup comes into play. LSU won 93-77 when they met in early December.
Duke, however, still has a chance to overtake the Tigers. Remember, recency matters to the selection committee. So if Duke can finish ACC play undefeated — which would mean defeating NC State, Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina twice — that could be enough to erase that head-to-head. Especially if LSU were to drop one of its remaining five games. The Tigers will play SEC-leading South Carolina on Saturday.
The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
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