UFC 323 predictions: Will Merab Dvalishvili cement his status as 2025 Fighter of the Year?

One more UFC pay-per-view means one more Merab Dvalishvili title fight in 2025. This Saturday, UFC 323 closes out MMA’s marquee slate ahead of the promotion’s big move to Paramount and CBS in 2026.

Ending the pay-per-view model’s 32-year run will be a double-header of title fights featuring two of the sport’s greatest champions. In the main event, reigning bantamweight king Dvalishvili seeks history with his fourth title defense of the year — a feat never before accomplished in the UFC. Standing in his way is past foe and fellow former champion, Petr Yan.

The evening’s co-main event showcases another of 2025’s brightest active stars, Joshua Van, who aims to become a world champion at just 25 years old. Van will be tested unlike ever before as he meets the surging flyweight kingpin, Alexandre Pantoja, who could add a fifth title defense to his impressive run.

UFC 323 is a bit scattered in intrigue throughout its appetizer portion. From an odds perspective, the main card isn’t expected to be too competitive. Though for one last hurrah with ESPN, the UFC could have done far worse — as we’ve seen plenty of times throughout the final year of this partnership.

👑 UFC 323’s lineup Crown grade: B+. 👑

Betting odds via BetMGM.

Oh, who’s that in the lead with one event to go? (Joseph Raines, Yahoo Sports.)

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - MARCH 11: (L-R) Opponents Petr Yan of Russia and Merab Dvalishvili of Georgia face off prior to their bantamweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at The Theater at Virgin Hotels Las Vegas on March 11, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images) — Will Petr Yan find a way to show Merab “No Mercy”?

(Chris Unger via Getty Images)

135 pounds: (C) Merab Dvalishvili (-450) vs. Petr Yan (+350)

We’ve reached the point in Dvalishvili’s reign of terror where someone’s best hope to beat him may come from the champ trying to have too much fun. Dvalishvili has improved his striking skills plenty since he first defeated Yan in 2023, so getting too comfortable on the feet is the only way I see him falling short in the sequel.

The Georgian embodied his relentless “Machine” moniker to its fullest against Yan in their first meeting. Across 25 minutes, Dvalishvili set a seemingly impossible standard by attempting a whopping 49 takedowns. He landed 11 of those, and by the end there was nothing Yan could do to stop the now-champion.

Yan has since spoken openly about the broken hand he battled through in that fight. While that’s a reasonable excuse to deal with, how much it should be a factor for a performance that saw him out-grappled with relative ease is hard to say. I tend to believe he would’ve lost regardless. The difference in Saturday’s rematch will be the availability of a healthy Yan down the stretch — should the fight go long.

It’s no secret that Yan has been a slow starter throughout his career, but once warmed up he’s as dangerous as anyone. Dvalishvili will never slow — that much is fact — but he’s shown he tends to get comfortable with a lead, which could be problematic if he starts striking with Yan. As much as Dvalishvili has improved, he’s still levels below Yan in boxing, specifically. And eventually, you would think all this activity will catch up with the champ.

I’m not sold on that latter note happening now, only because we’ve seen this song and dance between these two. Dvalishvili has simply been that dude.

Pick: Dvalishvili

135 pounds: (C) Alexandre Pantoja (-235) vs. Joshua Van (+190)

Van will need to be “Fearless” when he meets the “Cannibal” Pantoja.

There’s no logical reason to expect what would be a monumental Van upset in this matchup. The oddsmakers are wildly disrespecting the champion by making their moneylines as close as they are.

Van has proven to be a legitimately uber-talented striker with some of the best hands in the 125-pound class. There’s a very good argument to be made that he could be technically better than Pantoja. It helps that he has that dog in him, as he out-dogged Brandon Royval in a Fight of the Year contender back in June to earn this title shot. However, it’s easy to forget that Van was likely going to lose until he scored a late knockdown. It was wildly competitive and mostly a stand-up war.

Pantoja is one of the smartest fighters on Earth today, and it’s resulted in a healthy title reign. Few, if any, can out-scramble Pantoja once he pursues a takedown — and once caught in his traps, it’s hell trying to escape. Van just lacks enough experience — and according to him, a proper game plan — to overcome someone as supremely well-rounded as the champion.

This one is another case of Van’s chances increasing as the fight goes on, simply so he can land a kill shot. But this matchup feels tailor-made for another Pantoja submission win akin to his previous two defenses.

Pick: Pantoja

125 pounds: Brandon Moreno (+100) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-120)

Sticking with the flyweight division, we have here a very similar situation to the title fight. The former two-time champion Brandon Moreno looks to maintain his spot among the higher elite of 125 pounds against youthful contender Tatsuro Taira.

In a parallel universe, this could’ve been the title fight at UFC 323. But no matter the universe, I’m taking the experienced, championship-caliber fighter.

Taira is supremely talented, likely a future titleholder. His grappling skills are light-years beyond his age of 25. But on the feet, Moreno continues to sharpen his already refined toolbox, dispatching top contenders like Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi.

Strike for strike, Taira won’t be able to match Moreno. He’ll seek any takedown or grappling exchange he can find. Even once he gets there, Moreno is a talented scrambler in his own right, capable of flowing with momentum.

Realistically, this can look nearly identical to Taira’s lone career loss to Brandon Royval last year — just condensed down to three rounds.

Pick: Moreno

Feb 22, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Henry Cejudo (red gloves) is introduced prior to fighting Song Yadong (blue gloves) in the bantamweight bout during UFC Fight Night at Climate Pledge Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images — Henry Cejudo is looking to go out on a high note after a rough trip to Seattle in February.

(USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect / Reuters)

135 pounds: Henry Cejudo (+240) vs. Payton Talbott (-300)

How the world forgets what we saw at the start of the year.

Fast-track attempts don’t get more blatant than pairing a 10-1 prospect Payton Talbott with former two-division champion Henry Cejudo. At age 38, Cejudo has clearly lost a step from his days atop the bantamweight and flyweight divisions before he retired in 2020. He’s lost three straight since he returned in 2023 — but only to the cream of the crop.

Forget all the history and accolade differences in this matchup between the two. Talbott was outgrappled by a 38-year-old Raoni Barcelos in January. Barcelos is an objectively worse wrestler than an Olympic gold medalist like Cejudo, who has been fighting at the highest level of the sport for longer than Talbott has been a pro.

These odds boggle my mind. Outside of a Talbott flurry that catches Cejudo, he’s in for another rude awakening, especially since he’ll be entering the pocket and closing the distance, giving Cejudo exactly what he’ll want.

Pick: Cejudo

205 pounds: Jan Błachowicz (-135) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+110)

I’m officially on the Bogdan Guskov hype train after his knockout of Nikita Krylov in July. Krylov has been notoriously durable throughout his career, and despite that fact, Guskov laid the bricks to “The Miner,” maintaining his trend of exclusively winning via finish.

Former UFC light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz has also been a notoriously durable competitor. Only finished by strikes twice in 41 fights, the man has a concrete chin. However, he’s been incredibly inactive since 2022, and Father Time is against him.

Now 42 years old, Blachowicz looked slower than ever in his return from a two-year layoff against Carlos Ulberg in March. He put up a better fight than maybe most expected, surviving to the final horn against one of the division’s top contenders. But Guskov has just been danger from the jump, and gained valuable experience in Blachowicz’s absence.

Blachowicz will have to rely on his reliable wrestling game while avoiding the death blows of Guskov.

Pick: Guskov

Preliminary Notes

Maycee Barber is quietly returning to action like nothing ever happened after her last-minute withdrawal from that Erin Blanchfield main event in May. Despite the drama and turmoil, Barber has come into her own during her current winning streak. Karine Silva will be no easy obstacle to overcome, but Barber’s killer instinct has arguably been her biggest attribute setting her apart since she arrived in the UFC.

Returning in different ways will be both Jalin Turner and Edson Barboza. The former ends his brief retirement while the latter returns to lightweight after his time at 145 pounds.

Terrance McKinney is the most “get or get got” fighter of all time, so tune in for the handful of seconds his fight lasts.

Quick picks

Grant Dawson (-210) def. Manuel Torres (+170)
Terrance McKinney (+145) def. Chris Duncan (-180)
Maycee Barber (-185) def. Karine Silva (+150)
Nazim Sadykhov (+110) def. Farès Ziam (-135)
Marvin Vettori (-115) def. Brunno Ferreira (-105)
Jalin Turner (-300) def. Edson Barboza (+240)
Iwo Baraniewski (-200) def. İbo Aslan (+165)
Mansur Abdul-Malik (-1200) def. Antonio Trócoli (+750)
Muhammad Naimov (+200) def. Mairon Santos (-250)

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