Former UFC champ Belal Muhammad is picking Max Holloway to win his rematch against Conor McGregor at UFC 329, but also sees a path for the former two-division titleholder to get his hand raised.
It’s a rematch nearly 13 years in the making, and plenty has changed since the first time Holloway (27-9 MMA, 23-9 UFC) lost to McGregor (22-6 MMA, 10-4 UFC) in a featherweight bout in 2013. Both have gone on to become champions, but McGregor did it at 145 and 155 pounds. He’s competed at welterweight, which will be a first for Holloway.
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Muhammad believes Holloway will get the job done the second time around, as he’s been the much more active fighter while McGregor has been recovering from a nasty injury in his last fight – and living the party lifestyle. However, McGregor appears to have taken his return seriously, so Muhammad broke down the fight as he sees it.
“For Holloway, I would definitely add in a takedown to wear on him to get past the first three or four minutes,” Muhammad said on his YouTube channel. “I think that first three or four minutes, McGregor is going to come out hot. He knows, when he was at the top, his cardio was a problem. So now, five years off, extra muscle, higher weight class, I think his cardio is gonna be even a bigger problem.
“So for Holloway, survive those first two, three minutes, even initiating the clinch, just stay away from the left hand. Even if you don’t believe it, even if you don’t think he still has it, just stay away. There’s no need. It’s a 25-minute fight, and there’s a lot on the line for this fight.”
Aside from weathering an early McGregor storm, Muhammad believes it’s important for Holloway to stay out of McGregor’s striking range while also playing the cardio game. Muhammad also warns that McGregor could have a few new tricks up his sleeve, so caution, while leaning on his cardio advantage, is key.
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“Stay long in your combinations; don’t be in the pocket with him,” Muhammad said. “Use your jab. I think that spin kick to the body. Stabbing kick to the body. That side kick you do to the front leg just to see if he still has the confidence in that leg, right? I think working off of that, even adding in the takedown, pushing him to the fence, wear on him a little bit. Get past that first round, get past those first five minutes. I think once it gets to the second round, Holloway is the king of cardio. You know he’ll be fine, but let’s play it out.
“Let’s see what McGregor shows up. It’s been five years. We don’t know if he’s coming up with new things, new style, new person. So, let’s get a couple of reads in that first round. Once it gets to the later rounds, pick up the volume, turn it up.”
While Muhammad is picking Holloway, he sees the possibility that McGregor could get the job done if he goes for it from the start. Since Holloway was knocked out by former lightweight champion Ilia Topuria at UFC 308, Muhammad believes it can happen again, and McGregor has plenty of knockouts in the UFC.
“For McGregor, I think we gotta go all in,” Muhammad said. “This first round, those first five minutes, try to knock him out. Try to hurt him. We’ve seen it’s possible now, right? Topuria knocked him out. Before that, we thought Holloway had the best chin in the world, can’t get knocked out; now we see it’s possible. Just gotta find that spot.”
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: UFC 329: Ex-champ explains Max Holloway pick over Conor McGregor
