UFC Abu Dhabi odds: Best betting props, parlays and picks | Whittaker vs. de Ridder

UFC Abu Dhabi goes down this weekend (Sat., July 26, 2025) inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The main event features a Middleweight mainstay, and former champ, taking on a relative UFC newcomer. Robert Whittaker vs. Reinier de Ridder is bound to make waves in the division. Will Whittaker be able to squash RDR and make a case for another title shot or will the Dutchman score his best win to date and prove he’s a force to be reckoned with, despite his greatest exploits happening miles away from the Octagon?

UFC Abu Dhabi’s co-main event was supposed to be Movsar Evloev against former Bellator standout, Aaron Pico. However, that fight is likely getting rebooked for UFC 319. That means Petr Yan vs. Marcus McGhee has been elevated into the main event slot.

Rounding our the main card on Saturday is Shara Magomedov vs. Marc-Andre Barriault, Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Ochoa and Nikita Krylov vs. Bogdan Guskov.

UFC Abu Dhabi’s “Prelims” are headlined by Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov in the Bantamweight division. Also on the “Prelims” are Amanda Ribas vs. Tabatha Ricci, Davey Grant vs. Da’Mon Blackshear and Martin Buday against the debuting Marcus Buchecha.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Abu Dhabi Main Card Money Line Odds

Robert Whittaker (-162) vs. Reinier de Ridder (+136)

On Saturday, Whittaker will fight for the third straight time in the Middle East. Last time out, in Abu Dhabi, he had his teeth smashed in by Khamzat Chimaev for the quick, and rather shocking, loss (see it here). Prior to that he wiped out Ikram Aliskerov in Riyadh, after Aliskerov came in on short notice for Chimaev (see it here).

De Ridder blew up Bo Nickal’s spot in March, finishing him with a big knee to the body (see it here). That made RDR undefeated (3-0) in UFC after submission wins over Kevin Holland and Gerald Meerschaert. De Ridder is now 20-2 with his only professional losses coming to Anatoly Malykhin (in Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight fights).

Classic Dutch kickboxing display against Nickal aside, de Ridder is still primarily a grappler. His striking looked great in that match mostly because he was fighting Nickal. I highly doubt that de Ridder will be able to get off combos and land that knee against a striker as good as Whittaker.

De Ridder’s size and length will help him in that respect (he’s got five inches reach on Whittaker), but I think de Ridder is smart enough to not get in a fire fight with Whittaker. He’s going to be looking for a takedown and maybe the same face crank that ruined Whittaker’s last night in the desert (if you know he has a past injury/weakness there, why not go for it?).

If de Ridder’s gameplan is to take down Whittaker, he might have some issues with that. Whittaker has an 80 percent takedown defense and that’s been honed against a who’s who at Middleweight. Admittedly, there haven’t been that many hot shot wrestlers in the top ranks at Middleweight during Whittaker’s time there. Chimaev got him down twice on four attempts (but is there anyone who can stay standing against him?). Dricus Du Plessis was one for one on takedowns, too. If that 80 percent is inflated because of the competition Whittaker has faced, de Ridder might be able to drag him down to the mat more than once.

Whittaker has sometimes been the one to mix in takedowns, often because a lot of his fights have been against guys who mostly strike. He will likely avoid that at all costs in this fight and let his striking do the talking.

I think this is a really hard fight to call, as evidenced by the close odds here. I slightly favor de Ridder to get the takedown and have a lot of success on the ground (due to his size). But, I can also see Whittaker lighting him up on the feet and getting a finish.

The round total for this one is 2.5. With the over at -125 and the under at -105. That’s good odds-making right there. If the total was 1.5 I would hammer the over. If it were 3.5 I would hammer the under. As things stand, that’s just too close to where I think the fight will end (sometime early in the third).

Since I don’t see something in the over/under that I want, I’m going to take the opportunity to have plus money on de Ridder. Indeed, de Ridder’s size could be a big factor here as he ducks under Whittaker’s attempts to bomb forward, gets the body lock and pushes him into the fence.

I’m also a believer in de Ridder as a top Middleweight. I think the ropey Meerschaert performance can be put down to Octagon jitters and I have a lot of respect for the record he’s put together in ONE (Aung La N Sang would have been a problem in UFC).

Best bet: Reinier de Ridder moneyline (+136)

Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Petr Yan (-360) vs. Marcus McGhee (+285)

Yan out-boxed Deiveson Figueiredo and Song Yadong in his last two fights. Those wins came after a loss to current champ Merab Dvalishvili and former champ Sean O’Malley.

McGhee, on the other hand, gets his chance to crash the Bantamweight title picture at 35. He’s earned his fight with Yan after going 4-0 in UFC (with three “Performance of the Night” bonuses). Last time out, he took a decision over Jonathan Martinez.

The big question in this fight is whether or not McGhee can hang with a bona fide elite of his division. He’s looked good against a quite a few wrungs below that, but he’s never come close to Yan or the fighters Yan has been fighting regularly since he joined UFC. McGhee is also not getting this shot during his athletic prime. His mental maturity might make up for some of that, but he’s not going to have speed and strength that blows away Yan (who is only three years younger).

McGhee has great stats for the division. The only reason he’s not in the Top 10 in a bunch of striking categories is because he’s one short of the five UFC appearances needed to qualify for those rankings.

Right now, though, his 6.06 significant strikes landed per-minute would put him seventh in the division. The only reason he’s so “low” on that list is because Bantamweight has a lot of volume strikers in it. His 2.83 strikes absorbed a minute would have him just outside the top ten. When it comes to sig. striking differential, though, his 3.23 would have him leading the division by a mile. The current leader in that stat is Sean O’Malley with 2.88. McGhee’s 64 percent sig. striking defense would also put him fourth in the division.

If this were just a striking match-up, I think he has the tools to beat Yan here.

I think Yan is going to want to mix things up, though. If he just brawls and decides to wager his iron chin against McGhee’s volume and power, then I think he’s going to be having a lot of regrets on Sunday. Yan should be hoping to mix takedowns with his striking as much of possible and try to test McGhee on the ground.

McGhee has never been taken down in UFC. That stat looks good on paper, but only two of his four opponents have tried to take him down. JP Buys went 0-1 on takedowns and Journey Newsom went 0-6. Newsom has a UFC career takedown accuracy of 16 percent.

Yan’s takedown accuracy is 49 percent, which is average. But, his wrestling is a lot better than anything McGhee has ever seen.

Yan has scored takedowns in each of his last four fights (against Figueiredo, Song, Dvalishvilli and O’Malley). He even got a takedown on takedown defense GOAT Jose Aldo.

Count McGhee completely out at your peril, but Yan (if he’s taking this fight seriously) should be just too well rounded and experienced to lose this one. I think he’s going to have McGhee tied up for too much in this bout to worry about McGhee doing what no man has ever done (finish him).

Best bet: Petr Yan moneyline (-360)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Shara Magomedov (-650) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (+470)

Magomedov lost his perfect record last time out after he was too passive and failed to find the range against Michael “Venom” Page. That disappointing loss came after his sensational double spinning backfist win over Armen Petrosyan (see it here).

I thought Barriault might have been responsible for the first loss of life in the Octagon last time he fought. He cracked Bruno Silva with brutal punches and elbows leading to one of the scariest knockouts we’ve seen in recent years.

That win snapped a three-fight losing streak for Barriault, who was finished by Dustin Stoltzfus and Joe Pyfer.

At first glance you think, wow this is “Fight of the Night” material. But, then you remember how boring a lot of Magomedov’s time in a UFC Octagon has been. He’s had a few duds in there and even his two fights that ended in finishes were a bit of a slog to get through before those moments of brilliance.

There’s a good chance Magomedov tries to spend this entire fight circling around the outside looking to land the perfect strike, while ignoring the opportunity to land 10 perfectly good ones.

To land those highlight-reel finishes he needs someone who is going to run right at him.

Cue, Barriault.

Barriault does not do boring fights. He fights at a mile a minute and is very much a kill or be killed fighter.

He’s going to blitz Magomedov here and he’s either going to score a crushing finish or get face planted and have no idea how it happened.

Though I’d love to see “Power Bar” get the win and expectations for Magomedov to get further reduced, I think Barriault will get wrecked here. A big reason for that is Magomedov’s sig. strike accuracy, which is second in the division at 62.3 percent. It’s second only to Anthony Hernandez. However, consider that a lot of Hernandez’s strikes happen on the ground, not almost entirely from range like with Magomedov.

Vegas thinks the way I do, that this fight will include Barriault catching up with Magomedov and forcing a big exchange early. They have set the round total at 1.5 and I’m comfortable taking the under there. Sure, Magomedov hasn’t finished fights quickly in UFC, but he’s also had opponents who have too much respect for his striking. Barriault won’t show him respect. That might pan out for him here, but most likely it won’t. If I take the under I win either way, though.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (+135)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Asu Almabayev (-115) vs. Jose Ochoa (-105)

Almabayev was gearing up to fight Ramazan Temirov. That would have been a fire match-up pitting this Kazakh grappler against the Uzbek power puncher. Temirov withdrew due to injury, though. Replacing him is Ochoa, so now we have a match of Zulfikar vs. Kalzifer. Zulfikar is a legendary sword. Kalzifer was the cute little fire spirit from Howl’s Moving Castle.

Zulfikar/Almabayev is coming off a weird fight with Manel Kape. He was finished in the third round, but the winning strikes might have been to the back of the head after some eye pokes (see it here). Prior to that he took decisions over Matheus Nicolau, Jose Johnson and CJ Vergara.

Ochoa lit up Cody Durden in Durden’s backyard at UFC Atlanta in June (see it here). Before that he lost a fun brawl with Lone’er Kavanagh.

Ochoa looked fantastic on enemy soil and he’s been given the opportunity to repeat that here in the Middle East. Though, the Emirati fans might be less vocal in their support of the Kazakh here than the Georgians were of their son of the south.

Even so, Ochoa really showed me something and I think that’s going to cause Almabayev some problems. Almabayev is a takedown artist, but he took too much damage from Kape to make those takedowns count. I think Ochoa is going to be as much of a wood chipper as Kape was in that fight and we might see Almabayev fade and maybe even be finished.

Best bet: Jose Ochoa moneyline (-105)

Photo by Hans Gutknecht, Los Angeles Daily News/SCNG

Nikita Krylov (-192) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+160)

Krylov returned for a rare UFC fight in April and was knocked out cold by Dominick Reyes (see it here). That was his first fight since a submission win over Ryan Spann in March, 2023.

Guskov, meanwhile, has a three-fight win streak right now with wins over Billy Elekana (a short notice replacement for Johnny Walker), Ryan Spann and Zac Pauga. He lost in his debut UFC fight, getting submitted by Volkan Oezdemir.

These two are both 32, but Krylov’s 32 feels a lot different from Guskov’s. Krylov looked old and slow against Reyes. Guskov fights with a lot of energy and I think he’s going to blow away ‘Al Capone’ in this one.

Krylov is the favorite and that really surprises me. I respect his experience and he has wicked submissions. But for how bad he looked last time out, and how inactive he’s been lately, I don’t see why he should be considered a big threat to Guskov.

The round total has been set at 1.5. So Vegas thinks the favorite Kylov is also going to get the quick finish here. If it ends quick, I think it will be because Guskov binks Krylov on the chin.

The under is -160 for this fight, which is tempting. But, not as tempting as the plus money on Guskov.

Best bet: Bogdan Guskov moneyline (+160)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Bryce Mitchell (-125) vs. Said Nurmagomedov (+105)

Mitchell was obliterated by his own personal demon Jean Silva in his last fight, which was only in April (see it here). That fight followed his win over Kron Gracie. Prior to that he was shut off by Josh Emmett (see it here). Around those fights Mitchell has made a habit of saying increasingly moronic and inflammatory statements. He’s not said anything that would get him cut, though (things like “fighters deserve more money” or “Dana White hitting his wife was wrong”).

Nurmagomedov got the Lok Dog experience last time out, being totally befuddled and stifled by the game of Vinicius Oliveira. Oliveira grounded Nurmagomedov a bunch in the fight and earned a pretty comfortable decision. Prior to that Nurmagomedov scored a standing guillotine on Muin Gafarov (see it here).

This is a close fight which hinges on whether Mitchell can get this to the ground. If he does, then his grappling likely gets him the win. If he can’t then Nurmagomedov can piece together a decision by pot shotting from range.

Mitchell is coming down from Featherweight in this fight. His size here will cause Nurmagomedov problems. Nurmagomedov is used to being the taller and longer Bantamweight, but he’ll have the same reach as Mitchell. Because of that I think it will be hard for him to have a ton of success with his jab (he might do something nutty with a question mark kick, though).

Because of that, I think Mitchell is the best bet to win here. He gets 3.27 takedowns per 15. There’s a chance he runs into a guillotine (Nurmagomedov has a good one) and I hope he does. For the purpose of this column, though, I’ll be picking him. I’d never put money down on him, though.

Best bet: Bryce Mitchell moneyline (-125)

UFC Abu Dhabi ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Carlos Leal (-470) vs. Muslim Salikhov (+360)

Leal got some vindication in his last fight, totally dismantling Alex Morono on route to a first round stoppage (see it here). He looked like a world beater in that fight, albeit against Morono. This was his first fight since he suffered one of the worst robberies I’ve seen in MMA, after ‘losing’ a decision to Rinat Fakhretdinov at UFC 308… here in Abu Dhabi.

Why would Leal, who came in on short notice off of PFL for that Fakhretdinov fight, want to compete here again? Does he want to prove something to the officials here?

Either way, he’s a massive favorite against Salikhov. Salikhov is 41 and coming off a lovely wheel kick finish over Song Kenan (see it here).

If Leal fights the way he fought against Salikhov, there aren’t many fighters outside the top fifteen in Welterweight I wouldn’t pick him against. I think he gets the job done quick against Salikhov, who absorbs a lot of shots and is giving up four inches of reach.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-154)

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC

Davey Grant (+270) vs. Da’Mon Blackshear (-340)

Grant didn’t look his age in his unanimous decision win over Ramon Taveras. Prior to that he lost a split decision to Daniel Marcos.

Blackshear is on a three-fight win streak right now with finishes over Cody Stamann and Cody Gibson and a decision over Alatengheili.

Blackshear has been an unrepentant size bully in this weight class and he’ll again have a physical advantage over Grant. Though, it won’t be as striking as in some of his past match-ups. He’s only two inches taller and his reach advantage will be three inches.

The size advantage isn’t the only thing working for Blackshear in this match-up, though. His highly creative grappling and submissions are beyond what Grant is capable of dealing with.

Grant has been performing above expectations in the last leg of his career, but I think Blackshear gets him down and finishes him with something interesting, perhaps an anaconda choke,

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+114)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Amanda Ribas (-185) vs. Tabatha Ricci (+154)

Ribas was beat up and armbarred by a resurgent Mackenzie Dern in her last fight (see it here), someone she beat during her early years with the promotion. Prior to that she lost a unanimous decision to Rose Namajunas.

Ricci was well beaten by Yan Xiaonan in her last fight. That broke her two fight winning streak, which included very close decisions to Angela Hill and Tecia Pennington.

At 31, it seems like Ribas has topped out as a top ten Strawweight. She’s struggled every time she’s had the chance to crash the top five or make an impression up at Flyweight.

She might still be good enough to beat Ricci, though.

Ricci looked very bad in her loss to Yan, where she landed just 15 sig. strikes in three rounds. Yan landed 78 in return.

Ribas is not as busy as Yan, but she should be able to out strike Ricci in this fight. And if this goes to the ground, I like Ribas’ grappling over Ricci’s. Ribas’ striking and grappling will also be aided by her five inch reach advantage.

Best bet: Amanda Ribas moneyline (-185)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Ibo Aslan (-270) vs. Billy Elekana (+220)

Aslan had an impressive start to UFC, quickly finishing Anton Turkalj (see it here) and then Raffael Cerqueira (see it here). However, after the difficulty level was increased he was found wanting. Ion Cutelaba big brother’ed him in February, hurting him on the feet and easily submitting him by an arm triangle (see it here). Aslan is now hoping to prove he’s more than a guy who looks good getting off the bus.

Elekana came in on very short notice to fight Bogdan Guskov in January. He showed some resolve on the feet, but was eventually submitted in the second round (see it here). Prior to that he was on a three fight winning streak, which included two wins in PFL.

I have questions about both of those guys. My question on Aslan is whether he’s actually good or just another low level UFC Light Heavyweight. My question on Elekana is whether he’s good enough to be in UFC altogether.

Aslan fights like a wild man and he’s going to lose a bunch in UFC, but I think his physicality will be enough to get through Elekana at least.

Best bet: Ibo Aslan moneyline (-270)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Mohammad Yahya (+270) vs. Steven Nguyen (-350)

Yahya looked like one of the worst fighters on the roster in his loss to Kaue Fernandes last time out. He was put away with strikes inside the first round (see it here), making him 0-2 in UFC. He’s a local fighter, which is about the only reason he manages to get on these UFC in UAE cards.

Nguyen has more Contender Series fights than proper UFC fights. He’s 2-1 in the feeder league and 0-2 under the bright(er) lights. Last time out, he dropped a decision to Jarno Evans, though earned a Fight of the Night bonus.

I don’t think Yahya is here on merit, so I’ll be fading him for the foreseeable future.

Best bet: Steven Nguyen moneyline (-350)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Martin Buday (+250) vs. Marcus Buchecha (-310)

Buday has quietly gone 6-1 in UFC since graduating from Contender Series and, before that, OKTAGON. It’s been quiet mainly because Buday has gotten all decisions, other than a kimura finish over Josh Parisian. Buday’s lone loss is a TKO loss to Shamil Gaziev. Gaziev has since proven he’s one of the better Heavyweights in the division.

I don’t think Buday is going to get a submission on Buchecha. Strange things have happened in the Octagon when big names from other sports come over, like Anthony Hernandez submitting Rodolfo Vieira (see it here) and Khalil Rountree Jr. knocking out Gokhan Saki (see it here). But, Buday submitting the multiple time BJJ World and No-Gi World Champ would trump all that.

Buchecha, a fourth-degree BJJ black belt, started dipping his toes into MMA back in 2021. Since then, with ONE Championship, he’s gone 5-1 with four submissions and a TKO. His sole loss came to Senegalese wrestling legend Reug Reug, by decision. Reug Reug has since become the champ over in ONE.

This fight could be very weird. I’m expecting Buchecha to get a submission win, but things haven’t exactly come super easy for him in MMA thus far. Buday isn’t a tomato can, either.

I’ll take the over, expecting Buchecha to have some period of adjustment before getting his win or for Buday to be a tougher opponent than expected.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-130)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

UFC Abu Dhabi Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday’s action.

Three-fight parlay: Reinier de Ridder, Marc-Andre Barriault and Bogdan Guskov (+3397)

This is my oops all-underdogs parlay. I think de Ridder’s size and grappling could help him get his biggest UFC win to date. I think Vegas is way off in having Krylov as the favorite over Guskov. And I’m taking a punt on Barriault being able to crash through range and score a scary knockout over Magomedov.

Three-fight parlay: Salikhov vs. Leal Under 1.5, Mitchell vs. Nurmagomedov Under 2.5, Magomedov vs. Barriault Under 1.5 (+1037)

This is my oops all-unders parlay. We’ve been blessed with a decent amount of finishes lately and I think UFC Abu Dhabi might feature a lot of them. Leal looked incredible last time out and I think he stops Salikhov in the first round. Mitchell likely submits Nurmagomedov, though there’s a chance he gets caught in a front choke himself. And Barriault doesn’t even know they have judges in MMA fights.

LIVE! Stream UFC Abu Dhabi On ESPN+

MIDDLEWEIGHT MAYHEM! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Etihad Arena on “Fight Island” this Sat. night (July 26, 2025) with UFC Abu Dhabi. That’s where former middleweight champion, Robert Whittaker, collides with red-hot submission specialist, Reinier de Ridder, in a fast-paced main event mashup scheduled for five, five-minute rounds. In UFC Abu Dhabi’s co-main event, former 135-pound titleholder, Petr Yan, locks horns with once-beaten bantamweight bruiser, Marcus McGhee, with a spot in the division title chase up for grabs.

Don’t miss a single second of face-punching action!

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Abu Dhabi fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ABC “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 12 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 3 p.m. ET (also on ESPN/ABC).

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Abu Dhabi: “Whittaker vs. de Ridder” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.