UFC Freedom 250 predictions: Will Ilia Topuria and Alex Pereira make history on the White House lawn?

The most unique spectacle in UFC history, UFC Freedom 250 at the White House, is finally here. With incomparable hype and a condensed lineup of action, the card is bound to deliver for the Octagon’s second-ever outdoor appearance.

Lightweight gold occupies the evening’s headliner, when UFC champion Ilia Topuria returns for his first defense opposite perennial entertainer, the two-time interim champion Justin Gaethje. As the central American figure atop the seven-fight card, Gaethje has his work cut out for him against one of the sport’s very best. The stage is set for one of MMA’s best underdog tales to culminate spectacularly, but it won’t be easy with a generational talent like Topuria holding the throne.

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The co-main event has history on the line as former two-division champion at middleweight and light heavyweight Alex Pereira moves up to heavyweight to face Ciryl Gane. With reigning champion Tom Aspinall still on the mend from his eye injuries suffered against Gane last October, interim gold will be on the line, along with the potential for Pereira to become the first-ever three-division UFC champion.

Overall, UFC Freedom 250 is going to be a bite-sized blast of fun for the promotion. If the UFC isn’t careful, it might have to make these smaller cards the norm, given how well the fights could turn out. (Spoiler alert: That won’t happen.) Nonetheless, it’s not a perfect card, as the championship tilts aren’t even the right matchups to make atop either division. But for what we have, there’s still plenty of intrigue and excitement.

👑 UFC Freedom 250’s lineup Crown grade: B+. 👑

155 pounds: Ilia Topuria (-550) vs. Justin Gaethje (+400)

I might say this every time Gaethje fights, but I’ll gladly say it again: He’s the most exciting fighter of all time.

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Really, the sudden doubt in Gaethje’s abilities since Max Holloway spectacularly knocked him out at UFC 300 isn’t justified. In no world should he have been the underdog in his Rafael Fiziev rematch or against Paddy Pimblett earlier this year. Against Topuria, however, yeah — Gaethje is rightfully getting counted out.

That skepticism has far less to do with Gaethje’s talents, despite him being 37 years old. The 29-year-old Topuria is as lethal of a puncher as MMA has ever seen. His technique is sharper than obsidian, yet his power is nuclear enough that the technique isn’t even necessary. The fact that he possesses that combination — along with incredible speed — is nightmarish enough to make Freddy Kruger cower. Gaethje is wild enough to walk into the pocket fearlessly, which will be his greatest downfall, as it always has been.

Gaethje is a world-class wrestler who adapted the tasteful art of chaos early in his MMA career, delivering unforgettable war after war. Because of that, he’s only attempted four total takedowns throughout his 15-fight UFC run. He’d be wise to lean heavily on a grappling approach in a matchup like this, but the reality is he just won’t. Ultimately, Gaethje would be best-suited to reintegrate his filthy leg-kick work to try and stifle Topuria’s movement, because it’s only a matter of time before Gaethje gets hit. It’s inevitable.

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The best-case scenario for Gaethje is to entice a brawl and clip Topuria first. Funnily enough, that actually has a possibility of happening. Remember the start of Topuria’s fight with Holloway? The madman requested an instant brawl to start the fight, and Holloway declined. Imagine if that sequence recurs but with a Gaethje obliging this time. Sparks would fly, friends.

Pick: Topuria

265 pounds: Alex Pereira (-115) vs. Ciryl Gane (-105)

Why is no one talking about Gane potentially making history? The guy can become only the second two-time interim champion in UFC history, you know? (The first? Gaethje, of course.)

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All jokes aside, former middleweight champion Pereira making the move up to heavyweight, weighing around 250 pounds, is quite frankly insane. Sure, “Poatan” has always been a large dude who packs his gloves with dynamite-like fists. But seeing the progression of his career has been like a video game’s story mode.

So, it’s interesting with this matchup. Gane is arguably the most agile, movement-heavy big man the division has to offer. He’s a phenomenal striker, who has seen his stock fluctuate mightily since he first tasted defeat against Francis Ngannou in 2022 — a fight Gane did very well in early on.

I don’t think this fight is a “nightmare” for Pereira, but stylistically, it’s a much tougher one than people give it credit for. Let’s not pretend we haven’t seen Pereira outstruck before, despite being an all-time great striker. Israel Adesanya and Magomed Ankalaev both cracked the Pereira code, and while each man’s style is vastly different from Gane’s, the latter naturally packs more of a wallop and has a sharp enough striking acumen to handle a divisional newcomer.

Think about it. The only time Gane has lost — or should have lost (in his Alexander Volkov rematch) — was when he was taken down. Period. If he’s not taken down, he’s not losing, and there won’t be a threat of grappling from Pereira. It would be more likely for Gane to surprise us with the takedowns.

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The story of a three-division champion is just too good and inconceivable. This is the impossibly absurd state of heavyweight we’re talking about, after all. We can’t have nice things. Gane is pulling off the upset.

Pick: Gane

135 pounds: Sean O’Malley (-450) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+340)

Aiemann Zahabi is a good fighter. Is he an old contender? Well, yes. He’s 38, but you wouldn’t quite know it.

The Canadian will be the lone competitor from his country to compete on the White House lawn on Sunday. An eighth consecutive win, capped off by a Sean O’Malley upset, would seemingly be the perfect recipe for a bantamweight title shot next.

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O’Malley got back on track in his latest appearance, scoring a unanimous decision win over Song Yadong in January. But it didn’t come without some turbulence. O’Malley hasn’t quite seemed his dominant old self since dropping the title to Merab Dvalishvili in their first clash two years ago. However, this is the matchup he’s been eying since before he even fought Song.

O’Malley sees something here. As one of the sharpest counter-strikers in the game, he’ll be firmly in the matador role against Zahabi, who makes his striking battles much uglier than “Sugar” ever has. Zahabi has become a king of the war of attrition — if you haven’t seen it, the Jose Aldo fight was pure absurdity, folks.

Unless he sandbagged us in his interview on “The Ariel Helwani Show” this week, Zahabi won’t lean on his wrestling until he has to. That’s not an ideal approach here, and you’d like to think someone with Firas Zahabi and Georges St-Pierre in their corner would know that. Either way, O’Malley is too much of a sniper to miss a concussive blow for 15 minutes.

Pick: O’Malley

265 pounds: Josh Hokit (-400) vs. Derrick Lewis (+310)

Like it or not, Josh Hokit is a heavyweight contender now.

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The Curtis Blaydes fight in April simply didn’t make sense. For Blaydes and Hokit to each withstand the amount of damage they delivered throughout 15 minutes was insane. Could that have taken something out of Hokit? Absolutely. Turning around so quickly after a war like that isn’t advisable. But here we are.

We know what to expect from Derrick Lewis in 2026: Knockouts against middling prospects. He really is the ultimate journeyman, and his record perfectly reflects that with the names who beat him and those who don’t. I mean, Lewis is entering this fight after a loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta, after all. It’s not exactly the direction Hokit should go after beating a top-ranked Blaydes.

Lewis can win this fight, as he always needs just one bomb, making him more dangerous than Blaydes in that aspect. But Hokit appears to be every bit as fearless as he portrays, and will overwhelm Lewis fast. As long as he doesn’t get detonated by a “Black Beast” bomb, he’ll be just fine.

Pick: Hokit

155 pounds: Maurício Ruffy (-700) vs. Michael Chandler (+500)

You really think Michael Chandler — I repeat, Michael freaking Chandler — is going to lose at the White House? Not a chance in hell, folks. That man bleeds America!

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OK, to get serious, Chandler shouldn’t at all be favored in this bout. He’s looked atrocious in his past two fights, in particular. But we have to look a bit deeper. Look at everyone that Chandler has lost to in the UFC. We’re talking Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, Paddy Pimblett and Charles Oliveira (twice). That’s far from a lineup of slouches, and all but Pimblett have held UFC gold, whether interim or undisputed.

Mauricio Ruffy is still very much a budding contender in the making. Competition level aside, there’s one result I’m drawing my greatest concern from — Ruffy did rebound nicely against Fiziev in his last fight, but before that, my goodness, was he exposed on the ground against Benoit Saint Denis. We’re talking fish-out-of-water bad.

Chandler hasn’t been one to overly lean on his wrestling throughout his UFC run. But it’s one of his greatest strengths, and this matchup provides him with the easiest imaginable takedowns. Ruffy’s recent departure from his Fighting Nerds gym also feel like a red flag for his development. Maybe it could be the opposite? But either way, Chandler can easily dominate this fight should he so choose. The “will he” is the question, though. It’s a gamble, but what can I say? I like his experience edge.

Pick: Chandler

185 pounds: Bo Nickal (-350) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+275)

Consider this the White House card’s Civil War.

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Of all the matchups Bo Nickal could have had at this event, Kyle Daukaus wasn’t the one we expected. Sorry, Colby Covington.

Nickal returned to the win column in devastating fashion when he head-kicked Rodolfo Vieira into the nosebleeds last November. The performance was a swift reminder of how talented the Penn State alum really is, as he continues to expand his MMA toolbox.

Daukaus, on the other hand, has been on a hot streak since he left the UFC following his first failed stint from 2020-2022. The Philadelphian has won six straight, finishing all but one of his opponents in mixed fashion. Daukaus has become more dangerous than ever, providing a tough challenge for Nickal wherever the fight goes.

At its core, this matchup is a case of momentum vs. hype. Nickal’s wrestling will always be a huge x-factor, which has evidently boosted his striking threat as he rounds out his game. Nickal also has a good fight IQ to support it all. Daukaus will need to force mistakes to try and find a finish anywhere the fight goes; otherwise, he’ll be in for a long night.

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Pick: Nickal

145 pounds: Diego Lopes (-165) vs. Steve Garcia (+135)

The UFC really couldn’t have picked a better fight to open UFC Freedom 250. Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia realistically deserves five rounds. Will they be needed? Unlikely.

Lopes and Garcia are both madmen of the highest order at featherweight. Whatever Lopes lacks in the technique category, he makes up for it in chaotic killer instinct. No opening is safe on the ground or standing with one of the sport’s most thrilling competitors. But Garcia also carries plenty of momentum into this matchup, riding an impressive seven-fight win streak.

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This will be a stiff test for Garcia against a two-time title challenger, but he’s been unshakeable in every fight thus far, and admittedly still carries a chip on his shoulder despite his success. The dude never stops walking forward and looking for fight-ending blows. Lopes isn’t one to allow finishes, so imagining him succumbing one is difficult.

Expect this fight to go all over the place, like a rollercoaster, but in the end Lopes has more ways to win — and for that, he gets the lean.

Pick: Lopes

Closing notes

With a shorter UFC card than normal, there are no prelims, hence no prelim notes necessary, folks. So we’ll expand our predictions a bit more this time.

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• Fight of the Night: Lopes vs. Garcia

• Performances of the Night: Topuria and Hokit

• Shortest fight: Hokit vs. Lewis

• Decisions: Lopes vs. Garcia and Nickal vs. Daukaus

• All-out bloody wars: 1 (Lopes vs. Garcia)