UFC Freedom 250 preview: 6 big questions ahead of UFC’s historic White House takeover

Well, we’ve arrived at that pinch yourself moment. The Claw is in place. The soldiers are descending in Washington. And all the president’s men are assembled for the UFC Freedom 250 card on the White House’s South Lawn.

For the longest time this thing felt hypothetical, yet here we are.

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With two title fights and several bangers on the card, an Octagon in close proximity to a Pentagon, and Josh Hokit ready to let loose on Derrick Lewis, it’s time to ask the burning questions about UFC Freedom 250.

1. From an event standpoint, the inaugural MVP MMA card did 17 million viewers at its peak. How important is it for UFC Freedom 250 to surpass that number? 

Petesy: The UFC’s White House event having more viewers than MVP’s MMA debut on Netflix certainly feels like something that we, the media, have focused on quite a bit in the aftermath of the 17 million revelation. This was mostly due to Dana White and those attached to the White House event touting it as one of the biggest sporting events in history.

Of course, some will use that number as a stick to beat the UFC with if the viewership comes in lower than 17 million. However, I do feel as though the event will drive huge subscriptions towards Paramount+, which seems to be the broadcaster’s goal based on recent comments given to The Hollywood Reporter. Whether people love the concept or hate it, many will tune in, whether it’s to marvel at the spectacle on the South Lawn or to engage in some kind of collective hate watch.

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We can see how much one-upmanship means to White in his ongoing dispute with Eddie Hearn, so sure, I think he would love to get one over on Nakisa Bidarian and Jake Paul. But is it the end of the world if Sunday doesn’t surpass the Netflix numbers? I don’t think so, but it would sure be a nice feather in Dana’s cap should he ever choose to wear one.

You’re a hat guy, Chuck. What do you think?

Chuck: Feathers in caps can be gauche, Petesy, but a nice feather can lend a dignified air. I will say this: The White House as a main character is a big deal. It’s such a ubiquitous centerpiece to American life that, whether you like the occupant or not, people from all walks will be tuning in. It’s “historic” in that it looks like Independence Day over there at 1600 Pennsylvania, with the Claw sitting there in the lawn like a redneck bouncy castle.

It’s all completely at odds with the perukes and monocles that once inhabited the place.

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So many people are talking about it, I think the UFC does 25 million viewers. I know, I know, Paramount+ only has just shy of 80 million subscribers, but more are going to be signing up this week. It’s just too strange of a spectacle to ignore. Look at the media attention Dana and Co. are getting from corners of the industry that wouldn’t normally pay the UFC a lick of attention!

NPR, The New Yorker, Forbes, The Hollywood Reporter, etc., etc.

If it doesn’t beat MVP MMA, no, it won’t be the end of the world. But I really think that, come fight night, it’s going to feel like must-see TV.

2. Aside from the old “Fight for the Troops” events which took place in military hangars, the UFC hasn’t had outdoor cards. What are the biggest problems that come with doing a show al fresco? 

Chuck: Gnats, Petesy, if not full-blown swarms of locusts to suggest the end-of-days. It’ll be in the mid-80s Fahrenheit come fight night in Washington. You get a hot, muggy night and put up a bunch of bright lights, the bugs will be plentiful. But it’s not only that. There’s a small chance of rain, as well, which would make for a diabolical twist to the usual UFCs.

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In all seriousness, the card is constructed, for the most part, with fights that promise to deliver action. I see this as a big “first-round” card, with plenty of eager-to-please fighters who want to put on a show for the dignitaries. Maybe the hot weather will hasten some exchanges, but if fights slide into the second and third rounds — or, in the case of the title fights, into the championship rounds — you’d have to think that weather, along with the lights, will be a factor.

It’s a lot different fighting in a sauna than it is in a controlled environment.

Petesy: Did you say sauna? I’ll tell you who loves a sauna, Chuck — Joe Rogan. That said, Rogan seems particularly worried about this outdoor element. And as a colleague recently pointed out to me, that seems like a strange take from a man who once suggested that fighting should take place on football fields.

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In the yearlong countdown to this event, I feel like we’ve concerned ourselves with everything that could go wrong due to the setup. The reality is, this whole event is surreal. At this point, it would almost be a shame if everything went swimmingly due to the amount of column inches (or whatever the new-world version of that is) that have been dedicated to it.

Based on my coverage of UFC 242 in Abu Dhabi, we will know very quickly if the elements are impacting the fighters. That event took place in a large tent in the middle of the desert, with the only respite coming from an air conditioning unit that struggled into action at the eleventh hour. The first two fights went the distance and victorious fighters came into the media zone as if they’d been fighting on the sun for a number of days.

Guess what, one of them even said, “It was like fighting in a sauna.”

Look at that, we’ve come full circle, Chuck.

3. Does the American Justin Gaethje have any chance of winning against Ilia Topuria? 

Petesy: Here’s the thing about Gaethje — he often finds a gear in fights that other people have never had to go to. I remember when he first fought Rafael Fiziev, it felt like he was being marched to the gallows. We talked about it on a podcast and it struck me that Fiziev had never been brought to the edge of mortality by someone in a fight, a place where Gaethje tends to do his best work.

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Topuria has also never been dragged into the dark underworld Gaethje has often made his counterparts visit, but it’s going to take a lot from the American to get the champ there. Most importantly, he’s going to have to survive an onslaught from one of the deadliest knockout artists in the sport.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m very confident of a Topuria win, but I will never rule Gaethje out in any fist fight. And if it gets to the stage where Topuria starts breathing heavy after several rounds of trying to find Gaethje’s snooze button, I’ll start to favor the interim champion.

Chuck: The one guy on this card who feels like he’s carrying the American flag high enough for everyone to see is Gaethje, and I don’t think he’ll be as conservative as those in office. When he gets in front of that galaxy of dignitaries, he’s going to want to put on a show. I could see him taking the fight to Topuria, and maybe even finding some early success.

But it was the way that Topuria so easily put away Max Holloway in that third round, and the 72% landing rate on significant strikes he threw against Charles Oliveira — two guys that Gaethje lost to — that makes Gaethje’s mission feel futile. As one of the best boxers in the UFC, Topuria punishes aggression, and that’s going to be the default of Gaethje’s.

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It feels like a matter of time until Topuria catches him.

Tell you what, though. I don’t give Gaethje much of a chance, but if he hurts Topuria early, gives him some hesitation and sends a message that he’s in for a long night … this fight is going to turn fascinating with a quickness.

4. Given that Alex Pereira isn’t fighting UFC heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall for the title on Sunday, does beating Ciryl Gane diminish the accomplishment of becoming the UFC’s first three-division champion? 

Chuck: You know, I’ve seen the clips of Dana White saying that if Alex Pereira beats Gane to win a title in a third weight class, he’d surpass Jon Jones as the GOAT. This strikes me as a particularly non-nuanced way to go about business, Petesy. Jon Jones didn’t lose (officially) for more than a decade and a half, which keeps him out of arm’s reach from the likes of “Poatan.”

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Not to diminish what Pereira is attempting, as it’s a literal uphill battle going from middleweight to light heavyweight to heavyweight, and spending time ruling all three divisions. I would give him his rightful kudos, but there would be an extra tiny asterisk to it, wouldn’t there?

He beat Israel Adesanya when “Izzy” was still at his best, even if Pereira lost the title back to him in the sequel bout — all very legit.

Then he beat Jiri Prochazka for the vacant 205-pound belt only after Jones skedaddled for heavyweight. Because Pereira defended it three times before losing it (and then winning it back) against Magomed Ankalaev, it covers for a lot of the criticisms.

But beating Gane, I mean … Gane lost to heavyweight champions Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones, each of whom never lost their titles. And his fight with Tom Aspinall ended abruptly with the eye-pokes, meaning its still unresolved. Aspinall is the current heavyweight champion. Unless Pereira beats one of those three names, this piece of history feels a little … gift-wrapped?

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Petesy: You can definitely make the argument that “Poatan” is the GOAT if he manages to become a three-division champion (of sorts), but I won’t agree with anyone who does it. As you’ve just laid out, Chuck, it’s an incredible achievement for Pereira, but beating a guy who isn’t the guy does not make you that guy, if that makes sense.

I guess the weirdest thing about Dana saying that about Pereira isn’t the message, but the messenger. For so long, Dana was adamant that Jon Jones was the greatest fighter in the world as long as he’s active. Speaking of the aforementioned Netflix event, Jones was on the very broadcast appealing to be released from the UFC so he can fight. That sounds like a guy who is still active to me. All that’s changed is Jones’ standing with the UFC. That’s the thrust of Dana’s argument, even if he’s not saying it out loud.

For me, Pereira would have to beat the undisputed champion, Tom Aspinall, or the lineal champion, Francis Ngannou, to truly be in the running for GOAT status. Let’s hope at least one of those fights is an option for him beyond Sunday if he gets his hand raised.

5. Which fight steals the show at the White House? 

Petesy: I agree with your earlier thoughts about seeing a lot of early finishes on this card. I can imagine a lot of lads getting splattered, which makes it more difficult to pick just one. I really feel as though the big (fight) story of the night will be either Ilia or Alex entering a new stratosphere of stardom, which is pretty funny when you think about it.

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It seems like the UFC has gone out of its way not to create another McGregor due to the power he had over the company during his glory days. But the closer we get to it, I really believe that their most polarizing event ever — this Sunday’s extravaganza — will create iconic moments for the victorious parties due to the backdrop and the casual audience that will be tuning in.

Honestly, my biggest hope for this event is that it provides a springboard into a new level of fame for a number of fighters on the card. Amid all the credible criticisms of the event, that would be a big benefit for the sport.

Chuck: The guys who have everything stacked against them — as in the big underdogs Derrick Lewis, Kyle Daukaus, Gaethje and Aiemann Zahabi — would get a big pop if they pull through. I mean, some of these guys are being seen as foregone conclusions to get smoked.

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But in the “y’all must’ve forgot” category, can you imagine if Sean O’Malley returns to form and dusts Zahabi? He’s one of those fighters we circled early on thinking he might become a superstar, but Merab Dvalishvili fizzled his stock a bit. It’s a tough fight with Zahabi, but if he knocks him out and does one of those fadeaway jumpers, he stands to come crashing back into the scene.

To answer the question, the one fight that could steal the show, though, is Steve Garcia against Diego Lopes. Two headhunters with a history of violence, added to this show specifically to bring that history to life. Somebody is getting finished here.

6. Will the UFC present President Donald Trump with an honorary belt on his 80th birthday bash? 

Chuck: I’d imagine there are prop bets on this out there somewhere. I would be shocked — shocked — if there wasn’t some kind of ceremony directed toward Trump for being so good as to lend his lawn out for the occasion. That is going to happen. Dana has been on a nonstop media tour chatting up the long-held friendship he has with the president, so a commemoration is on the docket.

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Will that include the presentation of a special presidential title belt? I mean, that doesn’t seem outside the realm of possibility at all, does it?

Petesy: No — in fact, it seems really likely. I feel like there’s more chance of that happening than a fight going the distance on this card. A lot of people have commented on how this event will feel gross if the event is a celebration of President Donald Trump rather than America, as it’s proposed to be. But anyone who has watched the recent UFC events that Trump attended will know exactly what to expect.

He will definitely have a big entrance, fighters and UFC brass will ingratiate themselves to him. Really, the UFC will need some kind of symbol — say an honorary belt — to allow this event to differentiate from his usual attendance.

Let’s be honest, you can’t show up to a lad’s backyard on his birthday without a gift, and I expect UFC will thoroughly deliver in that regard.