UFC Macau’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Song vs. Figueiredo

After being totally overshadowed by Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano two weeks ago, the UFC is back with UFC Macau this weekend (Saturday, May 30, 2026) at the Galaxy Arena in Cotai, Macau, China. The event is, of course, broadcast on Paramount+. However, set your alarms for this one, the “Prelims” start at 4 a.m. ET!

The main event for this latest trip to China is Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo in the Bantamweight division. Both men are coming off losses. Yadong was outstruck by Sean O’Malley and Figueiredo was out-grappled by Umar Nurmagomedov.

The co-main for this event features ‘The Mountain Tiger’ Zhang Mingyang vs. Alonzo Menifield. Zhang will be hoping this home game won’t go as bad as the last one. Rounding out the main card is Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira, Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman and Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji.

The “Prelims” are headlined by Yak Si Lee vs. Lucas Felipe Dias. Many of the other fights on this card feature guys pulled right off the regionals.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Macau Main Card Money Line Odds

Song Yadong (-600) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+440)

Song didn’t have any answers for Sean O’Malley in his last fight. He was beaten to the punch and, kind of, styled on during that fight, which took place on the UFC 324 undercard (the first card in the Paramount+ era). That loss came after a weird win over Henry Cejudo, in a fight that was derailed by an eye poke. Before that he lost to Petr Yan in a scene similar to what happened in the O’Malley fight.

At 38 Figueiredo might finally be showing signs of slowing down. The former Flyweight champ lost to Umar Nurmagomedov in January. Before that he won a split decision over supposed potential contender Montel Jackson. But before that he lost to Cory Sandhagen and Petr Yan. He gave a pretty good account of himself in the Yan loss, but was still a long way from being called the winner. Against Nurmagomedov, he was well beaten — landing just eight significant strikes in the whole fight.

Song is the huge favorite in this fight. And I’ve got no problem with that. Figueiredo has been better at Bantamweight than expected, but he still can’t quite get over the hump and beat guys who are established top ten fighters. A big part of that is his advanced age and his reduced size.

Song is ten years younger than Figueiredo and has some decent size over him. He’s going to be able to set a pace that Figueiredo can’t keep up with. I think Song is going to be able to wrack up volume on the feet and that should keep him ahead on the scores for all the fight.

Figueiredo was so successful as a Flyweight because he would be able to punctuate rounds or steal momentum with a takedown. But it’s too hard for him to get takedowns on these bigger guys. And Song’s 73 takedown defense is going to make that even harder here.

Figueiredo may not have the motor to beat these top Bantamweights, but he has the toughness to not get stopped by them. He’s been stopped three times in his career. One of those was a submission to Brandon Moreno to lose the title. The other two were injury stoppages, including an eye injury against Moreno and that knee injury caused by Cory Sandhagen.

When it comes to taking punches to the dome, Figueiredo is about as tough as they come. Yan landed bombs on him in their fight. He looked a little hurt, but that didn’t stop him competing. Song hasn’t gotten a legit stoppage since he TKO’d Ricky Simon in 2023.

With all that in mind, I think the over is the play for this fight.

Best bet: Over 4.5 rounds (-130)

Alonzo Menifield (+205) vs. Zhang Mingyang (-250)

Zhang probably suffered the worst UFC upset of the year in 2025 after being TKO’d by Johnny Walker in the second round (see it here). That fight, where Zhang was a -370 favorite, was in Shanghai and designed to launch Zhang as a marketable star in Asia. He earned that showcase with first round finishes over Anthony Smith (followed by a very long retirement montage), Ozzy Diaz and Brendson Ribeiro. He also finished Tuco Tokkos on Road to UFC (whose chin looked pretty good the other week).

Menifield suffered a first round TKO to Volkan Oezdemir in November. Before that he upset Oumar Sy (as a +500 underdog) and took a split decision over Julius Walker.

This is a match-up between someone who has recently been humbled by an underdog against someone who did the humbling. That might be why the odds are quite respectable here, for Menifield.

I don’t think Menifield pulls this one off, though. I just don’t think he’s durable enough to stand up to Zhang’s offensive output. Zhang lands 7.71 sig. strikes a minute with a 60 percent accuracy. Menifield’s defense is a mid 50 percent. So, on paper, he’s due to take fair number of shots, probably early.

Menifield has six losses by KO/TKO. Half of those have occurred in the last two years. He’s also a decade older than Zhang. I think this one is going to be over quick.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-180)

Sergei Pavlovich (-625) vs. Tallison Teixeira (+455)

Pavlovich hasn’t fought since August, 2025. That’s when he picked apart Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Any other fighter would have likely been knocked out by the shots Pavlovich was landing, often at will, that night. Before that he beat Jairzinho Rozenstruik in a stinker that saw Rozenstruik bounced from the promotion. Those wins came after he was picked apart by Alexander Volkov in June, 2024.

Teixeira has had an odd start to his UFC career. His debut was a 35 second TKO win over Justin Tafa (see it here). He was then finished, in 35 seconds, by Derrick Lewis (see it here). That Lewis fight, a main event, was stopped a little early. It almost felt like Lewis’ antics after he rocked Teixeira prompted the finish more than anything else. Lewis had his shorts off and in the crowd before Teixeira could complain. After that he beat Tai Tuivasa in an all-time terrible Heavyweight MMA fight.

Like the oddsmakers, I really need to see more from Teixeira to know if he’s someone whose even going to be around a year from now. If he beats Pavlovich, that would be a huge nod in his favour.

Pavlovich has only lost to the elite of this division (Volkov, Tom Aspinall) and a not quite over the hill Alistair Overeem (in Pavlovich’s UFC debut). And I think Pavlovich is going to have too much power for Teixeira.

Texeira might be 6’7” but he will actually have a one inch reach disadvantage to Pavlovich. I think that’s a recipe for a big overhand KO from the Russian.

Best bet: Sergei Pavlovich by KO/TKO ()

Kai Asakura (-290) vs. Cameron Smotherman (+235)

Nothing has gone right for Asakura, since he was signed as a desperate title contender for Alexandre Pantoja. That was despite Asakura barely fighting at Flyweight. Pantoja made quick work of him, exploiting his total lack of ground game for a second round submission (see it here). Tim Elliott then did the same thing (see it here). Asakura is now fighting at his more familiar 135 lbs, a weight where he was a two-time RIZIN champion.

Smotherman came in on short notice and beat Jake Hadley to start his UFC career. Since then he’s lost back-to-back decisions against Serhiy Sidey and Ricky Simon.

I think this is where Asakura gets off the schneid. Both these guys have fallen apart due to their lack of takedown defence and both of these guys have zero interest in going for takedowns themselves. So we’re going to have a kickboxing match and I think Asakura is a far more dynamic striker than Smotherman.

Smotherman’s game has felt a little paint-by-numbers so far and Asakura, while still not proven in UFC, has shown some very creative striking in Japan (he’s got a killer knee to the body). Smotherman has been finished twice in his young career, so I think Asakura has a chance of a UFC coming out party in Macau.

Best bet: Kai Asakura moneyline (-290)

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Carlston Harris (+260) vs. Jake Matthews (-325)

Matthews lost to Neil Magny last September, succumbing to a third round D’arce choke (see it here). He had won his last three prior to that, though, including a submission over Chidi Njokuani. He’s now 15-8 in UFC and perhaps the most tenured Australian in the promotion. He was supposed to fight the King of Kung Fu Muslim Salikhov in this slot.

Harris jumped in to replace Salikohov on less than a week’s notice. He’s coming off a standing TKO loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio (see it here). That gruelling fight was all the way back in January, 2025. In March he was supposed to be Michael Chiesa’s retirement fight, but visa issues prevented that.

Harris is 38 and been stopped twice in a row. He’s also been out for over a year and he’s coming in on short notice. This is all feels like a perfect storm when it comes to figuring out what fighter to fade. Even so, this is MMA and strange things can happen.

I feel like Matthews, who is remarkably only 31, should be able to find ways to win this fight, though. Harris is much bigger than him, but Matthews has fought plenty of big guys in his career (he wasn’t finished by the massive Michael Morales).

There’s just too much working against Harris in this match. I’ll take the under, since the Matthews’ moneyline line is so short.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+110)

Alex Perez (-142) vs. Sumudaerji (+120)

Perez got back to winning ways in January with a thunderous KO win over Charles Johnson (see it here). That first round win was a little tarnished by Perez coming in heavy. Before this bout he was submitted by Asu Almabayev in a fight he looked like he was winning. That fight happened over a year after his previous fight, the headliner with Tatsuro Taira which ended in a nasty knee injury for Perez.

Sumudaerji has won his last three fights, getting decisions over Jesus Aguilar, Kevin Borjas, and Mitch Raposo. He’s now 6-4 in UFC.

This could be a very fun fight, with Perez’s grappling possibly helping him stand up to Sumudaerji’s wrestling unlike a lot of recent opponents have. Sumudaerji is massive for the division and he has a huge reach. He’s been a total size bully at Flyweight since he arrived. He’ll have seven inches of reach on Perez in this fight.

That reach won him the fight with Aguilar, who he beat 62 to 31 on significant strikes.

Perez has power, as we saw against Johnson and Matheus Nicolau previously. He’s managed to get inside and land those power punches on longer guys in the past. He might be able to do that here, too.

Overall, I think Perez is the more talented fighter in this match-up, both on the ground and on the feet. I’m just worried about the size advantage Sumudaerji has.

I’ll side with talent here, though.

Best bet: Alex Perez moneyline (-142)

UFC Macau ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Luis Felipe Dias (-166) vs. Yi Sak Lee (+140)

Dias got a second round submission on Contender Series in October. He’s 31 and 16-5 as a pro. The most notable organization he’s fought for is BRAVE CF. He lost his last two fights, there, to Luiz Cado and Marcin Bandel.

Lee has never been in an Octagon before. He’s 26 and 8-1. He’s never fought outside of Asia. He looks pretty wild in the tape I’ve seen.

Dias isn’t terribly exciting, but he’s got a heck of a body on him. I think he’ll be stronger than Lee in the clinch and might be able to wrestle him down and grind out a decision.

Best bet: Luis Felipe Dias moneyline (-166)

Meng Ding (-118) vs. Jose Henrique (-102)

Meng lost his Contender Series fight, by decision, in 2024 (thanks to a point deduction for multiple low blows). Last year his only fight was a TKO on Urijah Faber’s promotion. He’s 31 and a veteran of over forty fights. He’s finished 28 of his 35 of pro wins by TKO/KO.

Henrique is 24 and fights out of Nova Uniao. He’s just 8-1. The one loss was a TKO loss on Contender Series to Yusaku Kinoshita (who went 0-2 in UFC with two TKO losses). Henrique hasn’t fought since 2024.

Henrique is very lanky and he’ll have a six inch reach advantage in this fight. He’s only an inch taller than Meng, though, who is also very tall for the division. Henrique doesn’t have very much athleticism, though. I think Meng is probably going to find success bullying him against the fence.

Best bet: Meng Ding moneyline (-118)

Aoriqileng (+285) vs. Cody Haddon (-360)

Aoriqileng has been with the promotion since 2021 and he’s gone 4-4 1 NC over that time. In his last fight he obliterated Cody Gibson with a 21 second finish (see that here). Before that he lost a decision to Raul Rosas Jr. in Sphere. Though, he wasn’t exactly dominated by El Nino Problema.

The Australian Haddon won on Contender Series in 2024, but he’s only managed one UFC appearance since then; a decision over the retiring Dan Argueta. Since then he’s had fights with Aleksandre Topuria and Malcolm Wellmaker fall through.

Haddon really tore apart Argueta, but I don’t think Argueta’s head was in that fight. I’ll be very surprised if Haddon finds it that easy against the much tougher Aoriqileng.

The line on Haddon here is based on potential, in my opinion. I don’t know if he deserves so much hype, though. Against Argueta he walked forwards with his chin in the air and had very little head movement. I’ll take Aoriqileng to get the upset on home soil.

Best bet: Aoriqileng moneyline (+285)

Rei Tsuruya (-245) vs. Luis Gurule (+200)

We haven’t seen Tsuruya since he spammed unsuccessful takedowns on Joshua Van in March, 2025. Amazing to think how far Van has come since then. That unanimous decision loss was Tsuruya’s first pro loss in eleven contests. He was supposed to be fighting Jesus Aguilar on Saturday.

Gurule comes in on short notice for this fight. That’s a quick turnaround for him. He just got his first UFC win two weeks ago, beating Daniel Barez at UFC Vegas 117. He’d lost his first three bouts in the Octagon.

I normally don’t like it when fighters jump right back into the cage after a few weeks. But I also don’t like it when someone has been out of action for a year. This fight pairs those two archetypes together.

The year off might have helped Tsuruya add something new to his game. He looked a little too Ryan Hall-ish in his fight with Van. His only idea seemed to be rolling for takedowns. In his successful UFC fights he got too cute with grappling, too, going for low probability submissions instead of controlling the position.

I favor Tsuruya in this fight, though, just because I think he’s going to be able to get his takedowns on Gurule. Van’s performance against Tatsuro Taira showed us that going 4-21 on takedowns against him might not be half bad.

I’ll take the under, though, thinking Tsuruya might get the submission on the ground (hopefully he’s learned to not be too cute there now).

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+130)

Angela Hill (+160) vs. Xiong Jingnan (-192)

The 41 year-old Hill makes her 30th walk to the Octagon this weekend. She’s lost her last two fights, both decisions to Fatima Kline and Iasmin Lucindo. Her career mark in UFC stands at 13-16. Xiong is a 39 year-old veteran of ONE Championship. She was a longtime Flyweight champion there, beating the poster girl Angela Lee on two occasions. Her only loss in her 10-1 ONE career was to Lee, in the second of their trilogy of fights.

I love me some Angela Hill, but this is a very tough match-up for the UFC veteran.

You may not have heard of Xiong, but she’s a very legitimate fighter and she’s been putting up numbers against women who could win in UFC. The biggest question mark is the weight and the lay-off time. Xiong’s last fight was in March, 2025. That was at Strawweight, but that was her first time cutting to 115 lbs since 2019 (when she lost to Lee).

If she has the weight cutting figured out, she could be a very good addition to the division (despite her age). She hits with a lot of power (ten wins by KO/TKO). And she’s not someone who just sits on the outside popping a jab, she crashes in throwing haymakers. She has a mean leg kick, too.

Hill started to look her age in that Kline fight. Xiong’s not that much younger, but she has less miles on her than the super active Hill. I think Xiong will take a decision here, with Hill’s hard chin saving her from getting stopped.

Best bet: Xiong Jingnan moneyline (-192)

Zhu Kangjie (-102) vs. Rodrigo Vera (-118)

Zhu is a Road to UFC product. He went 3-0 there, but hasn’t fought since May, 2025. He had two fights cancelled since then, one due to a broken nose and one due to something outside of his control. Vera has been signed right off the regionals, with no previous appearances in any UFC products. He’s been fighting mostly on LFA and FFC lately.

Kangjie advanced through Road to UFC thanks to a very fortunate judging decision in his fight against Shin Haraguchi. He got the split decision despite being taken down 16 times and being held down for two and a half minutes in the third round and four minutes in the fourth round.

Vera goes for a lot of takedowns, too. He’s not on Haraguchi’s level (a national level freestyle wrestler). But he does offer more on the feet than Haraguchi does, so I think Vera will be able to get some takedowns on Kangjie, but also land some offense standing, too.

Best bet: Rodrigo Vera moneyline (-118)

Loma Lookboonmee (-105) vs. Jaqueline Amorim (-115)

Lookboonmee didn’t have an answer for Alexia Thainara’s grappling last time out. She dropped a unanimous decision there to break her four fight winning streak. In her last fight, Amorim was surprised by the returning Mizuki Inoue. She got beat up in that fight and lost a unanimous decision (as a -400 favorite).

I think Amorim is probably going to get back in the win column here. Lookboonmee has similar attributes that Mizuki had, but I don’t think she has the size and weight to make them a real problem for Amorim. I think Lookboonmee is going to be able to land some of her stuff on the bigger Amorim, but I don’t think she’ll damage her like Mizuki did.

That lack of damage means Amorim is probably going to have enough in the tank to get the takedowns she needs.

Best bet: Jaqueline Amorim moneyline (-115)

UFC Macau Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Zhang vs. Menifield – First Minute Finish (+550)

Zhang has three career sub-minute wins. Menifield lost his last fight in 87 seconds. He was also beaten by Carlos Ulberg in 12 seconds, Misha Cirkunov in 88 seconds and Fabio Cherant in 71 seconds. Menifield also has an 8 second win on Contender Series and his first two pro fights ended in a combined 61 seconds. Lots of reasons to think this one is over in lightning speed.

Two-bet parlay: Rodrigo Vera and Aoriqileng (+628)

I like what I saw on Vera’s tape and I think he’s going to take down Kangjie Zhu a bunch. I’m not buying Cody Haddon right now, so I think the veteran Aoriqileng will get past him. Aoriqileng is the big underdog in this two leg parlay, but I actually feel more confident in him than the relatively unknown Vera.

Kai Asakura to Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 (+1100)

Asakura versus Cameron Smotherman might be a really fun fight. These two have been stifled by wrestlers so far in their UFC careers and I’m sure both want to just bang, bro. I think there’s a chance these two have a fire fight and one of them goes down in the end. I think Asakura is more capable of a big late moment than the more orthodox Smotherman.

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