UFC Paris predictions, odds, full card picks: Is Nassourdine Imavov vs. Caio Borralho winner next in line?

Paris set the WWE ablaze last weekend for the company’s pitstop with its Clash in Paris PLE, leaving the UFC to pick up the momentum with its annual September Fight Night.

It’s been a big year for the middleweight division, seeing a champion change as recently as this past month. UFC Paris’ main event appears to be one of the most blatant unofficial No. 1 contender fights that a division could have, as the No. 2-ranked “Sniper” Nassourdine Imavov gets a hometown main event against the No. 7-ranked Fighting Nerd product Caio Borralho. A win for either man would give them a nearly undeniable case to be the first challenger to the seemingly unbeatable new kingpin, Khamzat Chimaev. And stylistically, it’s just an intriguing, high-level clash.

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If that five-round serving isn’t enough to satisfy a fight fan’s taste buds, the all-action co-main event will do the trick. France’s own Benoit Saint Denis returns after a much-needed win at UFC 315 in May. Looking to spoil the party will be Borralho’s teammate, the rising lightweight contender Mauricio Ruffy.

A Paris crowd alone is enough to secure a solid grade for any type of combat-related festivity. Those people simply love it when humans collide in a ring or cage. Luckily for them, the UFC put together a card with solid stakes atop the bill, notable names littered throughout and European flair. That’s the recipe for a good day of fisticuffs.

👑 UFC Paris’ lineup Crown grade: B+. 👑

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

185 pounds: Nassourdine Imavov (-135) vs. Caio Borralho (+110)

Ever since Chris Weidman’s title reign ended in 2015, the middleweight division has largely become home to some of the most incredible silliness the sport can provide. Sometimes you’ll watch a fight and be blown away by how impressed you are, while other times you can’t believe these dudes are getting paid to flail around.

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I’m leading this right into Borralho chatter and his last fight, in particular. Borralho fought Jared Cannonier stupidly by all accounts and gave the heavy-handed “Killa Gorilla” the perfect opportunity to win by engaging in a striking battle as a world-renowned grappler. However, Borralho actually succeeded, and handily out-struck and defeated (nearly finishing) Cannonier without virtually any real use of his grappling prowess.

Borralho, 32, has been a slow burn to impress, but his last performance was easily the most he’s proved himself, despite a strong 17-1 (1 NC) record. The major drawback for Borralho is his quality of wins, an area where Imavov has easily surpassed him. Although questionable in its timing, Imavov finished Cannonier when tasked with the one-time title challenger. Around that win, he picked apart Roman Dolidze, halted Brendan Allen’s impressive winning streak, and then lastly stopped Israel Adesanya with strikes in February.

Imavov lives up to his “Sniper” nickname. He’ll be one step ahead of Borralho regardless of the Brazilian’s continuous improvements, but what makes the Fighting Nerd worrisome is that ability to grapple that he often shows off. Imavov hasn’t been one to be held down or controlled often, and even if he defends well against Borralho, he’ll be thinking about the takedown threats. That’s where Borralho can capitalize and land his effective striking offense. As long as he mixes up the approach, this fight remains highly competitive.

Ultimately, it’s the diversity in effective overall offense for Borralho that leans me toward him in this matchup. Also, the Fighting Nerds, even with Carlos Prates’ minor road bump, are doing things, man.

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Pick: Borralho

155 pounds: Benoit Saint Denis (+145) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (-175)

Saint Denis’ striking defense cannot be trusted.

I’m sorry to say it, but it feels true after that short-notice Kyle Prepolec win at UFC 315. There were some concerning shots landed to the chin of Saint Denis in a matchup like that. Shots that he can’t afford to take against someone as dynamic as Ruffy is. It’s possible that Saint Denis might be too much of a war personified. We love that about him, but it’s not going to win any championships or climb the perpetually brutal lightweight ladder.

Saint Denis will aim to make this fight a brawl early, disrupting Ruffy’s timing and ability to unleash his versatile attacks. However, he’ll be met with counters along the way, and depending on how well he handles them, he will be in trouble.

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Ruffy has that feel of a guy who is only continuing to break out, which we saw with his King Green spinning wheel kick. Saint Denis is just too hittable, and Ruffy will glide with his superior speed, setting up another highlight reel finish.

Pick: Ruffy

205 pounds: Modestas Bukauskas (-375) vs. Paul Craig (+300)

As much as there is to say about Paul Craig’s last fight against Rodolfo Bellato in Atlanta, I will refrain. We can leave it at being arguably the most ridiculous end to a fight I’ve ever seen in person.

But hey. It got us one more Craig dance, so that’s something.

Unfortunately for Craig, it’s not going to go well. But this is what is always said before Craig enters the Octagon — even if he wins. It never goes well until it does. Dominant Craig victories aren’t a thing. He’ll take punishment, whether on the feet or ground, before he catches a submission. In 28 fights, the man has never won a decision and has only gone to three overall.

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Bukauskas has gotten on a nice three-fight roll and gone 5-1 since he returned to the UFC in 2023. He’s always been a heavy puncher, and defensively sound enough to avoid any thinly veiled entries Craig may present him with. This fight has a Bukauskas knockout written all over it.

Pick: Bukauskas

155 pounds: Bolaji Oki (+115) vs. Mason Jones (-140)

The Mason Jones resurgence tour is in full effect, ladies and gentlemen.

Although the somewhat surprising ending of a short-lived first run with the UFC took Jones back to the European regional scene in 2023, it may have been the best thing for him. Wales’ “Dragon” returned to the Octagon to play spoiler on enemy soil for what was also Jeremy Stephens’ Octagon return in a Des Moines, Iowa home game. As chaotically fun as it was, typical for Stephens’ tilts, Jones was largely in control more than he wasn’t, and utilized his more well-rounded game to secure the win.

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Jones can bang and brawl, and will surely exchange leather early on with Bolaji Oki. However, it’s Jones improved fight IQ that’s been on display in his latest run. Almost as if he lulls opponents into the comfort of chaos they’re presented with. Aside from that, Oki is still finding his overall comfort in the UFC, whereas Jones has more experience.

Pick: Jones

170 pounds: Axel Sola (-135) vs. Rhys McKee (+110)

It’s been a weird relationship between Rhys McKee and the UFC, and I’m still not too sure they’re a good fit together. Statistically speaking, McKee is 1-4 with his lone promotional win coming in his last appearance, a doctor stoppage against Daniel Frunza.

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To be fair, McKee beat the unholy bollocks off Frunza in that five-minute trouncing. Whether or not Frunza also belongs in the promotion is another story. We saw what we saw.

Axel Sola is an undefeated 27-year-old prospect with five-round championship experience under his belt. He’ll enter the UFC fresh off his third successful title defense as Ares champion. This all comes after a lengthy 19-4 amateur career, so Sola has put in plenty of work for his age, no matter how you slice it.

Regardless of McKee’s win, this feels like an introduction fight for Sola. It’s not quite worthy of the “showcase” label, but Sola has gradually improved with each championship win and is no stranger to these Paris crowds.

Pick: Sola

Preliminary Notes

Former PFL champion Ante Delija has made the crossover, and the UFC heavyweight division desperately needs him to be good, get better and do big things. This isn’t a question, it’s not a request, it’s a demand. That didn’t work out well for Marcus Buchecha (or Martin Buday, really), so it’s nothing against one of the division’s best gatekeepers, Marcin Tybura, but everyone should be rooting for Delija in Paris.

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Even then, let’s say Delija goes on a run. He and Tom Aspinall are teammates.

Forget I said anything. Cancel the division.

Quick picks:

• William Gomis (-275) def. Robert Ruchala (+220)

• Oumar Sy (-500) def. Brendson Ribeiro (+375)

• Ante Delija (-115) def. Marcin Tybura (-105)

• Kauê Fernandes (-175) def. Harry Hardwick (+145)

• Sam Patterson (-185) def. Trey Waters (+150)

• Brad Tavares (-235) def. Robert Bryczek (+190)

• Andreas Gustafsson (-125) def. Rinat Fakhretdinov (+105)

• Sam Hughes (-350) def. Shauna Bannon (+275)