Charles Oliveira is back on a UFC Fight Night, folks. And while that may seem weird to say after his exhilarating time in the lightweight title scene, it couldn’t be more fitting for this homecoming affair.
The former UFC lightweight champion returns to action this Saturday, Oct. 11, for a relatively quick turnaround after his knockout loss to Ilia Topuria in June. He’ll look to extend his 17-0 win streak in his native Brazil when he collides with the always game Mateusz Gamrot, who looks to play spoiler on short notice and finally break through as a title threat after years of near-misses. Meanwhile, the co-main event features another ex-champ as Deiveson Figueiredo looks to get back on track against Montel Jackson.
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A double-header of Oliveira and Figueiredo fights could’ve easily been a pay-per-view capstone two years ago, so it feels like a treat to see them on UFC Rio — especially in each’s home country. The rest of the card? Well, that’s mostly what we’ve come to expect from UFC Fight Nights in 2025, but the violence potential tips heavily on the scale for this one.
👑 UFC Rio’s lineup Crown grade: C+. 👑
Betting odds via BetMGM.
Just how game is the “Gamer,” Gamrot?
(Chris Unger via Getty Images)
155 pounds: Charles Oliveira (-105) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (-115)
Hopes were high for Gamrot upon his UFC signing in 2020 fresh off the heels of a run as KSW’s undefeated two-division champion. Then he battled to his split decision loss with Guram “Conner Burks” Kutateladze in his promotional debut.
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The loss didn’t derail Gamrot’s inevitable trajectory, but it was a hurdle that showed the uneven road Gamrot was destined to travel in the UFC. Despite that, he’s consistently demonstrated his talent in the years since, showcasing a supremely well-rounded skill set that flourishes thanks to his phenomenal technique, both with his striking and in wrestling-heavy grapple-fests. The man is a stellar tactician, plain and simple.
On the other hand, there’s Oliveira, who is chaos personified, having only fought to a decision twice in the past 11 years. That’s frankly insane to say out loud. Any MMA fan worth their salt knows Oliveira is a finisher through and through, but three decisions in 23 fights? Absurd.
At the same time, that’s always been Oliveira — he’s only gone the distance six times in his 47 pro bouts (35-11, 1 NC), becoming supremely talented at winning with the eight points of contact.
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Throw the short-notice aspect of this fight out the window. Neither man believes it will play a factor, and they’re right. Stylistically, this is an awful matchup for Gamrot. Think back to Arman Tsarukyan’s split decision win over Oliveira in their three-round bout at UFC 300 — Tsarukyan was fading while Oliveira remained threatening with his submission game from the bottom and doing more damage with strikes. Oliveira arguably won that one, even if the judges didn’t agree, even without the two extra rounds Oliveira will get at UFC Rio.
Gamrot’s best chance will be to replicate the control Tsarukyan succeeded with, which is the loftiest of tasks against someone as impossibly dangerous as “Do Bronx.” The Brazilian legend boasts some of the most lethal clinchwork the division has ever seen and will punish Gamrot at any opportunity he gets close. When at a distance, Oliveira will hunt and stalk his prey, battering the touchable Gamrot with his punch flurries into a potential submission.
Pick: Oliveira.
135 pounds: Deiveson Figueiredo (+240) vs. Montel Jackson (-300)
Jackson is great, don’t get me wrong. But I never anticipated expecting him to beat a former champion.
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The size of bantamweight’s best has seemingly caught up to former flyweight king Figueiredo. His past two losses to Petr Yan and Cory Sandhagen provided enough reasons to doubt “Deus Da Guerra” going forward. It also doesn’t help that he’s 37 years old in one of the sport’s most fast-twitch divisions.
Jackson, 33, has been on an exceedingly quiet six-fight win streak, and UFC matchmakers have made it exceedingly clear they want to launch him into the title picture with this fight.
The size difference will be laughable, with the 5-foot-10 Jackson towering over his 5-foot-5 counterpart. Jackson is a grueling force to deal with, even when his opponent isn’t at a size disadvantage. He’ll be too physical for Figueiredo to control in the grappling department, and his range and power will pummel the ex-champ from any angle he wants. Saturday night is the Montel Jackson coming-out party.
Pick: Jackson.
170 pounds: Vicente Luque (+425) vs. Joel Álvarez (-600)
This welterweight feature bout at UFC Rio feels somewhat similar to the co-main event — despite Vicente Luque playing the Figueiredo role at just age 33.
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Luque is one of those guys who’s aged mightily in fight years. He’s also suffered a brain bleed in recent years. I’m no doctor, but that’s obviously not good, especially against an assassin like Joel Álvarez.
This fight will be the welcome party to 170 pounds for Álvarez after spending the past few years of his career struggling with the weight cuts to lightweight. He was a massive 155-pounder, so it was better late than never for him to make this transition to a higher division. That being said, this matchup feels just mean. Álvarez’s knee strikes, in particular, have sinisterly shined in his recent victories. And as much of a violent striker as he’s proven to be, most of his finishes end by submission.
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Luque has had more diversity in his methods over the years, but in a way, this will be like Luque looking into a mirror at his younger self — at least in fight years, because Álvarez is technically only a year younger.
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There’s simply more wear and tear on Luque at this point, and Álvarez has been one of the greatest low-key killers at lightweight since he arrived in the UFC six years ago. I fear for Luque on Saturday.
Pick: Álvarez.
Can Jhonata Diniz be the next big thing at heavyweight?
(Jeff Bottari via Getty Images)
265 pounds: Jhonata Diniz (-115) vs. Mário Pinto (-105)
Why does UFC make me have to talk about unranked heavyweights every week? What did I do to deserve this?
Let’s not overthink it: This isn’t one for the tacticians. Jhonata Diniz and Mário Pinto are two large men who hit moderately hard for their size, and don’t do much else particularly well. It’s heavyweight MMA, which means someone will probably land a significant blow early, someone will likely fall over, and we’ll all move on. Or the opposite will happen, which will involve a lot of cage-leaning and quicksand movements.
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Both men are unproven thus far in their careers, but in the case of Pinto, he looks the part. He’s tall and athletic, with clean (enough) technique and good finishing instincts. The record is perfect — a shiny 10-0 — but untested. He hasn’t been pushed, he hasn’t been hit by someone who can hit back, and there’s little to show how he reacts once things start to go sideways. He’s young, confident and offensively sound — which often works right up until it doesn’t.
So I’m throwing my dart at Pinto on this one, because he moved pretty smoothly before uncorking a clanger of a knockout blow to the jaw of Austen Lane in his UFC debut. (Yes, I know everyone knocks out Lane, that’s why it’s a dart toss.)
Pick: Pinto.
145 pounds: Ricardo Ramos (-190) vs. Kaan Ofli (+155)
Ricardo Ramos looked like he had so much potential early in his UFC run. Yet here we are, a whopping eight years later, with him continually seeking top-15 contention.
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The Brazilian has the experience edge, and this is his fight to lose because of that. He’s better everywhere and has the tools to end it wherever it goes. But again, that’s never stopped him from self-destructing before.
If Ramos stays focused and doesn’t spin himself into the dirt, he should handle Ofli without much drama. If not, though, expect chaos. Either way, this one will end before the judges get involved.
Jobs may at stake here, as Ofli is entering off two losses in his only UFC appearances thus far. Ramos is 1-3 in his past four, but continues to find ways to stick around. At home, expect him to rebound.
Pick: Ramos.
145 pounds: Lucas Almeida (+125) vs. Michael Aswell (-150)
There’s something oddly funny about UFC Rio’s main card starting with two middling featherweight matchups. Regardless, I like the possibility for quality action better in this one than Ramos vs. Ofli.
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Lucas Almeida fights like every exchange could be his last, which makes him exciting and wildly unpredictable. When he connects, it’s chaos in the best way — though his defense and pacing still haven’t caught up to his aggression.
Michael Aswell, meanwhile, brings a calmer, more structured approach. He’s measured, technical, tight with his punches, and less likely to gas himself out chasing a finish. Almeida’s pressure should steal early momentum, but Aswell’s steadiness and solid fundamentals should carry him once the fight settles.
With that said, the oddsmakers got this one right. But I love me a proper wild man. And this one likely starts wild before descending into further obscurity under the Brazilian lights.
Pick: Almeida.
Bia Mesquita is one to watch at 135 pounds.
(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Preliminary Notes
Is UFC still looking for the next Ronda Rousey? It might not have to if she ends up coming back in 2026, but regardless, if the UFC is to ever find one, here comes jiu-jitsu wizard Bia Mesquita.
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Heavyweight and women’s bantamweight are both barren wastelands of talent, so if someone — anyone — like an undefeated submission specialist like Mesquita can come in and make waves, it’ll be a breath of fresh air. And she has a tailor-made matchup to thrive Saturday in her debut against Irina Alekseeva. (Hilariously enough, since my Rousey mention, I’ve remembered that Alekseeva’s nickname is “Russian Ronda.” Let’s just say that one hasn’t worked out too well.)
It would be an injustice not to add one more note on the bigger weight classes, as Valter Walker is also on this card. For some reason, he’s buried on the prelims while the Diniz vs. Pinto fight occupies a main-card slot. The brother of Johnny Walker has stunningly started to carve out a nice winning streak, leaving legs in his wake with three consecutive heel hooks. Adding to the hilarity of everything that’s already been said about the UFC Rio prelims, Walker is tasked with Kamaru Usman’s brother, Mohammed Usman.
It’s a freaking brother battle, folks. You know what, UFC Rio rules. We’re adjusting the grade.
👑 UFC Rio’s lineup Crown grade: A++. 👑
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[Ed. note: Aaaaand now Mohammed Usman is out. Alas, some things are just too beautiful for this world.]
Quick picks:
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Jafel Filho (+105) def. Clayton Carpenter (-125)
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Vitor Petrino (-325) def. Thomas Petersen (+260)
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Bia Mesquita (-650) def. Irina Alekseeva (+450)
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Lucas Rocha (-125) def. Stewart Nicoll (+105)
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Valter Walker (-325) def. Mohammed Usman (+260) -
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+325) def. Julia Polastri (-425)
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Luan Lacerda (-250) def. Saimon Oliveira (+200)
