UFC Sacramento: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues expert pick

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at UFC Fight Night 285’s main event between Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rodrigues.

Anthony Hernandez UFC Fight Night 285 preview

Staple info:

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• Height: 6’0″ Age: 32 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 75″

• Camp: MMA Gold/Xtreme Couture MMA (Las Vegas)

• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing

Supplemental info:

• + Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt

• + Relentless pace and pressure

• + Steadily improved striking

• + Most takedowns in UFC middleweight history

• ^ Chains attacks well to and from bodylock

• + Good transitional grappler and scrambler

• ^ Works well from negative positions

• + Relentless positional rider

• ^ Cradles, strikes and submissions

Gregory Rodrigues UFC Fight Night 285 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 19-6 MMA, 10-3 UFC

• Height: 6’3″ Age: 34 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 75″

• Camp: Kill Cliff FC (Florida)

• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing

Supplemental info:

• + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt

• + 8x national jiu-jitsu champion (Brazil)

• + Solid offensive striking

• ^ Varies targets and attacks

• + Good instincts for countering kicks

• + Strong takedown abilities

• ^ In the open or in the clinch

• + Good transitional grappler

Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues breakdown: Middleweight maelstrom

The main event in Sacramento features a showdown between ranked middleweights, Anthony Hernandez and Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues.

An inherent pressure fighter who was forced to overcome some early obstacles in his UFC career, Hernandez has since developed his breakneck pace into an effective process from the feet to the floor.

Primarily utilizing a boxing-centric attack, Hernandez wastes little time getting going, working behind a steady dose of prodding jabs and feints. The 32-year-old contender does a decent job of getting his head off the centerline, parlaying his slipping motions into uppercut-hook returns that allow him to fit in and work inside.

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Hernandez also appears to have some solid eyes inside the pocket, and can punch off of single collar ties and body blocks alike. That said, body shots have had a solid effect on “Fluffy” before, so he’ll need to respect the offense coming back his way.

Affectionately referred to on the internet as “Hobocop,” Rodrigues is a fighter who packs heat in multiple ways.

Built like a giant cybernetic organism attached to an insanely muscular exoskeleton, Rodrigues has almost robot-like mannerisms to his movement from his ring walk to the way he goes down to punches (respectfully). However, since teaming up with Henri Hooft and company at Kill Cliff FC, Rodrigues has made clear improvements to his offensive striking techniques and fundamentals.

Aside from having a one-two that fires like a 76mm explosive shell out of an “Easy 8” Sherman tank, Rodrigues smartly mixes up his target to the body – something that’ll likely serve him well opposite his current counterpart. And when Rodrigues is feeling in stride, the Brazilian bomber isn’t shy about putting his punches together and mixing in kicks and knees into the equation.

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Rodrigues also appears to be hardwired to counter kicks, but I’ll be curious to see how much of his own lower-extremity offense he elects to shelve given Hernandez’s looming takedown threats.

Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues point of interest: Winning the wrestling

Considering the crux of Hernandez’s game, winning the wrestling will be paramount for both parties this weekend.

Playing off of both pressure and a high-to-low attack alike, Hernandez typically looks to shoot when he has his opposition on the back foot and headed toward the fence. Even though the 12-year pro maintains a modest takedown percentage rate, his game isn’t necessarily reliant on completing his first shot.

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An avid chain wrestler, Hernandez understands the power of transitional grappling and being able to extend exchanges. That said, Rodrigues is far from a pushover in the grappling and wrestling realm.

Although a lot of his jiu-jitsu accolades are back in his teenage years, Rodrigues is a well-rounded grappler who medaled in wrestling a la the Pan American games. Whether he’s shooting power doubles in the open or hitting hip tosses in the clinch, Rodrigues is a versatile offensive threat.

Defensively, Rodrigues displays solid fundamentals from over-under positions, as well as strong front-headlocks and sprawls alike. Still, Rodrigues can’t afford to be lackadaisical when it comes to covering the head and looking for separations given the stickiness of Hernandez’s spin-cycle-like grappling game.

Working off of an almost catch wrestling-like process, Hernandez is an impeccable positional rider who makes his money by forcing his opposition onto all fours (e.g., referee’s position in wrestling).

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Typically riding from the side with the option of a single hook in, Hernandez will keep his opponent’s weight down and forward via cross wrists and leg levers, transitioning between strikes and head-and-arm guillotine variations (a.k.a. boa chokes). And whenever his opposition turns into them, or a choke attempt fails, Hernandez’s front-headlock acumen allows him to transition to and from his home riding position – hence the spin cycle.

Hernandez is also skilled at using one of my favorite and more underutilized grappling techniques in MMA—the cradle. Whether he’s killing getups along the fence or forcing big actions from opponents that give him offensive opportunities, Hernandez keeps that same catch-wrestling energy when it comes to punishing positions.

However, Hernandez’s knack for working from negative positions could be tested early given Rodrigues’ explosive grappling offense and excellent back-taking abilities.

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Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues odds

The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the Mexican-American fighter, listing Hernandez -172 and Rodrigues +140 via FanDuel.

Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues prediction, pick

The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the Mexican-American fighter, listing Hernandez -172 and Rodrigues +140 via FanDuel.

Although the odds could look much wider in hindsight regardless of who wins, I don’t hate a closer betting line given the inherent volatility of this fight. Despite not disagreeing that Hernandez should be favored, there’s no denying how live Rodrigues is as a dog here – especially early.

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Should Rodrigues come out of the gates hot and stun “Fluffy” to his hurtable body, then seeing “Hobocop” clean up Hernandez in front of his hometown will not shock me in the slightest. However, if Hernandez is able to survive the initial scares, then I suspect his breakneck pace could provide problems for Rodrigues on both the feet and the floor.

Aside from Hernandez’s boxing, particularly under the context of his looming takedown threats, being an underrated part of his game, Rodrigues has seldom faced any willing wrestlers in his UFC tenure.

Hernandez may be a smaller and unimposing middleweight who is not as strong a wrestler as Rodrigues in the first layer of exchanges, but the California native is a relentless chain wrestler and clinch fighter who can still stay busy and get a lot done in small spaces.

Couple all that with the suspect nature of Rodrigues’ chin, and I believe that Hernandez has pathways to victory in multiple phases of this fight.

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Again: A Rodrigues win, particularly early, wouldn’t surprise me. But the official pick is for Hernandez to survive the early storms en route to pulling away down the stretch and forcing a stoppage via strikes in Round 3.

Prediction: Hernandez inside the distance

Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues start time, how to watch

As the main event, Hernandez and Rodrigues are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 10:05 p.m. ET. The fight streams on Paramount+.

This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: UFC Sacramento: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues expert pick