UFC spotlights the middleweight division with its first overseas trip of 2025, which features two highly intriguing bouts atop the billing at UFC Saudi Arabia, headlined by former two-time champion Israel Adesanya’s return. Riding his first-ever losing streak, “The Last Stylebender” competes in his first non-title tilt since 2019 when he meets the streaking Nassourdine Imavov. It’s been a steady climb to the division’s peak for France’s Imavov, however Adesanya represents his highest-profile matchup to date.
The evening’s other big middleweight clash carries far less stakes, but boy does it carry plenty of intrigue. Longtime welterweight showman and two-time Bellator title challenger Michael “Venom” Page moves up in weight with hopes to become the first blemish on Shara Magomedov’s perfect 15-0 record.
UFC’s inaugural trip to Saudi Arabia in 2024 already delivered with middleweights when Robert Whittaker brutally knocked out Ikram Aliskerov, and there is potential for another exciting night on Saturday. So you know the drill — let’s break down the matchups.
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
185 pounds: Israel Adesanya (-160) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (+135)
We’ve entered strange territory with Adesanya. Despite losing two in a row, his losses don’t tell the whole story — his last to current champion Dricus du Plessis, in particular.
By all counts, Adesanya should be slowing down at 35 years old after an extensive combat sports career in total. That’s simply not the case, and he proved that in a vastly competitive clash with du Plessis — a fight he entered off his lengthiest career layoff.
Against Imavov, Adesanya has another striker for whom he’s been studying. The ever-talented New Zealander has historically flourished in a good old-fashioned kickboxing match, being one of the all-time greats on the feet. Few fighters in MMA history have utilized distance management to the perfection of the former champion — just ask past rivals like Marvin Vettori or Jared Cannonier. We may as well throw out the points of success du Plessis had in the fight because they only apply to him in his absurdly effective — but entirely awkward and undeniably successful — way. Outside of “DDP,” Strickland and Alex Pereira have solved the Adesanya puzzle without the aid of grappling, eliminating Adesanya’s breathing space with their consistent pressure and cage control.
Imavov is sneakily talented and a legitimate player in the division, but I’ll admit my belief in him waned after the short-notice light heavyweight loss to Strickland in early 2023. The Frenchman has since been nearly perfect, though. Disregard the Chris Curtis head clash no contest, and Imavov has won three straight with strong performances against top 10 fighters.
Adesanya won’t have to worry about pressure striking to the same degree as against Strickland or Pereira. Even when presented with an in-your-face opponent, Adesanya’s counterpunches are arguably the nastiest of all. Still, Imavov can make the former champ uncomfortable, and he packs a handful of lethal tools into his arsenal.
This is a test for Imavov. It would have been a bigger test if he had not been hanging with the division’s best. For Adesanya, he is the, though. Not just for Imavov but any 185-pound competitor of this era. Until we see him lose to someone who isn’t championship-caliber, you can’t bet against him. Imavov has the chance to prove that he is that in this fight, but he just hasn’t done it yet.
Pick: Adesanya
185 pounds: Sharabutdin Magomedov (-170) vs. Michael Page (+140)
One would have to think something’s got to give between “MVP” and “Shara Bullet.”
Many factors make this fight highly compelling. Let’s start with the fact that neither has been bested in the striking department, and that’s what they are at their cores: excellent, flashy strikers. Unlike most Dagestan-born competitors, Magomedov stands out for his striking, accompanied by a decent grappling game at best. Both fighters have pulled off some of MMA’s most ridiculous highlight-reel finishes, like Magomedov’s 2024 Knockout of the Year contender against Arman Petrosyan.
Nothing is off the table in this matchup, whether double-spinning backfists or spinning wheel kicks. Although Page will be at a size disadvantage, he’s been a master of counter-fighting and distance management. He’s a lot more similar to Adesanya than a surface level would indicate, but that’s more of a testament to his karate-based stance vs. Adesanya’s kickboxing style.
Ultimately, Page is more tested against better competition than Magomedov and hasn’t been matched in a striker’s showdown. However, age and size are against the 37-year-old veteran. Page will turn Magomedov into a wrestler at some point in this fight, resulting in his downfall.
Pick: Magomedov
265 pounds: Sergei Pavlovich (-325) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+260)
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik should be pretty cut-and-dry. Someone is getting knocked out, and I can’t imagine it’s Pavlovich.
Sure, we’ve seen the dynamite-fisted Russian get planted by Tom Aspinall and Alistair Overeem. Rozenstruik had a notoriously scary rise to prominence in his own right when he burst onto the UFC scene in 2019 — then he ran face-first into Francis Ngannou’s world-crushing power. Things haven’t quite been the same for the fighting pride of Suriname since.
Rozenstruik, 36, had failed to string together a winning streak after his 10-0 MMA start until his last two fights — forgettable wins over Tai Tuivasa and Shamil Gaziev. He’s been relatively durable but hittable. Outside of Ngannou, Alexander Volkov — Pavlovich’s last opponent — is the only other heavyweight to stop him with strikes. Unfortunately for Rozenstruik, Pavlovich possesses such devastating power that it shouldn’t matter.
A stalky 6-foot-2 compared to Volkov’s 6-foot-7, Rozenstruik will fail to replicate a rangy gameplan akin to what Volkov did to Pavlovich. Therefore, we’ll see the once-surging Russian return to the win column in highlight-reel fashion.
Pick: Pavlovich
135 pounds: Said Nurmagomedov (-160) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (+135)
Protect your neck.
No, no, no — this isn’t a Global Fight League (GFL) catchphrase; it’s just another Said Nurmagomedov fight.
Unlike the GFL, that’s not a bad thing. We love Nurmagomedov’s fights and his incredibly speedy ability to catch a choke in the blink of an eye. Like Magomedov, Nurmagomedov is one of the few Dagestan-born fighters who thrive primarily as strikers. As mentioned, Nurmagomedov still loves his guillotines and ninja chokes, though.
Despite my affection for Nurmagomedov in the bantamweight division, I’m surprised to see him as the underdog to the ultra-talented Vinicius “Lok Dog” Oliveira. The Brazilian has been electric in every sense of the word since his UFC arrival last year.
“Lok Dog” is a dynamic and brutal striker who delivers damage at a more consistent clip than Nurmagomedov. In this matchup, he’ll look to chop the legs of his equally long counterpart. As Nurmagomedov slows, thudding punch combinations will follow as the action collides into the cage — maybe even another flying knee lands.
This is a very winnable fight for Nurmagomedov, and oddsmakers may be considering each fighter’s body of work to decide a winner. However, Oliveira just has momentum on his side and serious skill to boot.
Pick: Oliveira
155 pounds: Fares Ziam (+115) vs. Mike Davis (-140)
Mike Davis is an absolute beast, and we’re so lucky to see him back fighting without a year away from the Octagon.
Lightweight’s “Beast Boy” might be one of the best-kept secrets in his division due to his perpetual inactivity. In 13 fights, Davis has only lost to Gilbert Burns and Sodiq Yusuff. He’s stopped all but two of his victories, and who could forget the horrific beatdown he put on Thomas Gifford? No matter how much time passes, Davis remains a violent force, and he proved that his last time out against Natan Levy.
Fares Ziam has been on a roll of his own lately. The Frenchman’s four-fight winning streak last extended with a gnarly flying knee knockout of Matt Frevola, showing a new side of viciousness to his game. While he may be able to match Davis in technicality on the feet, power in favor of “Beast Boy” will be the X-factor.
There may be some grappling exchanges, but Davis also showed off in that realm against Levy, earning the win by second-round arm triangle. Simply put, Davis is just too dangerous and battle-tested.
Pick: Davis
Preliminary notes
I think Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius is a trap fight. Don’t get me wrong, Jasudavicius has been exceptional on her current three-fight winning streak. She’s really come a long way with her overall development since Natalia Silva absolutely styled on her. Bueno Silva has just been downgraded into obscurity since her Raquel Pennington vacant title loss.
Bueno Silva undeniably underperformed in the matchup and wasn’t her best when she entered the UFC as a flyweight. Her weight cut will be something to watch, but when looking at her last loss to Macy Chiasson, she was very much in the fight until she suffered that nasty fight-stopping cut.
One way or another, we’re in for a fun fight at 125 pounds, and there should be some pretty fun grappling exchanges should the fight hit the floor.
Quick picks:
Muhammad Naimov (-325) def. Kaan Ofli (+260)
Shamil Gaziev (-350) def. Thomas Peterson (+280)
Terrance McKinney (-500) def. Damir Hadzovic (+360)
Mayra Bueno Silva (+200) def. Jasmine Jasudavicius (-250)
Lucas Alexander (-120) def. Bogdan Grad (+100)
Jamal Pogues (-105) def. Hamdy Abdelwahab (-115)
