UFC Vegas 113 predictions – Yahoo Sports

Paramount Era, meet the META APEX.

Not exactly giving you goosebumps, eh?

The UFC’s 2026 campaign is well under way and we’ve already had a taste of how numbered events will look going forward, but for the first time under this new broadcast partnership, we have a Fight Night at the world’s most famous warehouse, now with a spiffy sponsorship attached.

Christening the Meta’s maiden voyage is a main event between bantamweight contenders Mario Bautista and Vinicius Oliveira. Bautista has proven to be a tricky thorn in the side of the division’s contenders and—to the matchmakers—as he’s consistently been good enough to rack up wins, but not in a manner that has captured the attention of the greater MMA fan base.

Oliveira, on the other hand, has shown hints of star potential, and could be headed to a breakout campaign in the deep 135-pound division if he can impress against Bautista, something few have been able to do. The time is now for “Lok Dog” to pounce.

Also of note on the main card, flyweight legend Kyoji Horiguchi gives Amir Albazi the chance to make a name for himself, top 10 heavyweight Jailton Almeida steps in on short notice to fight the hearty Rizvan Kuniev, plus a bantamweight clash between dark horse contenders Jean Matsumoto and Farid Basharat.

What: UFC Vegas 113

Where: Meta Apex in Las Vegas

When: Saturday, Feb. 7. The seven-fight early preliminary card begins at 5 p.m. ET, followed by a six-fight main card at 8 p.m. ET. The entire event streams live on Paramount+.

(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)

Mario Bautista (6) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (14)

It’s not always pretty, but Mario Bautista understands the science behind winning fights.

He knows when it’s time to rack up points on the feet, he knows how to grind an opponent against the fence, and he knows when to put up his defenses and ride out a storm. That strategical sense has hindered Bautista when it comes to finding finishes, something he had a knack for as he worked his way up the rankings, which could also work against him as he attempts to defuse Vinicius Oliveira. You give Lok Dog 25 minutes to work, he must might catch you.

Like Bautista, Oliveira is one of the most difficult style matchups at 135 pounds. While Bautista sometimes looks like he’s working through an MMA algorithm, Oliveira is a machine of a different kind, constantly marching forward and giving his opponents no space to get comfortable. He’ll stand in the pocket, throw on the move, and empty a chunk of his gas tank in an instant if he thinks he has you hurt.

I’m going with Bautista because he’s so difficult to pressure and he has the kind of footwork that will make it difficult for Oliveira to cut him off. Bautista will muck this up as he has most of his recent fights, frustrating Oliveira and putting his cardio to the test. It will be a struggle early, but Bautista will assert himself in the later rounds to eke out a close decision win.

Pick: Bautista

Amir Albazi (T8) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (3)

To put into perspective why Kyoji Horiguchi is such a considerable favorite here, it’s been 15 months since Amir Albazi’s most recent fight, two and a half years since his last win, and over three years since he won convincingly. It’s under those circumstances that he takes on Horiguchi, one of the 125-pound division’s all time greats.

Albazi has one super solid skill and that’s taking his opponents to the ground. He’ll have success in this department against Horiguchi, who always gives up size and strength. What Albazi can do once Horiguchi is down is another question. Plenty of wrestlers have tried to smother Horiguchi to no avail, with the Japanese star’s technique, athleticism, and smarts typically getting him out of trouble. It won’t take long for Albazi to become frustrated when he realizes he can’t steal rounds with his wrestling.

On the feet, the speedy Horiguchi will slice Albazi to bits, and possibly threaten to become the first fighter to finish Albazi. What I said about Horiguchi’s technique and athleticism being assets on the ground goes double in the standup, where he will dazzle the hundreds upon hundreds (?) of fans watching at the Apex as he out-strikes Albazi for three rounds.

Horiguchi by decision.

Pick: Horiguchi

Jailton Almeida (8) vs. Rizvan Kuniev

Jailton Almeida has a great chance of getting back in the win column if he focuses on, you know, actually hurting the other guy.

Stepping in on less than a month’s notice for Ryan Spann, Almeida is taking a risk here putting his number up for grabs against Rizvan Kuniev. There’s a reason Kuniev, a two-time Contender Series contestant, has been thrown to the wolves in his first two UFC matchups. He hits hard, he has strong grappling defense, and he’s quicker than his 264-pound mark on the scale would suggest. Almeida could be in serious trouble.

I’m not ready to hop off the “Malhadinho” bandwagon yet even though there’s plenty of reason to doubt his chances of ever becoming a champion at heavyweight, so I’m comfortable picking him to not just win but return to his finishing ways. Dull performances against Alexander Volkov and Derrick Lewis have drawn well-deserved criticism for Almeida, but his willingness to jump on this opportunity suggests urgency, and that feeling could be exactly what Almeida needs to get his mind right.

Kuniev won’t make it easy, but eventually Almeida takes him down and finds a submission.

Pick: Almeida

Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Marc-Andre Barriault

Michal Oleksiejczuk is one of the UFC’s most reliable finishers and they’re teeing one up for him. With respect to Marc-Andre Barriault, who has often been counted out in the past only to pull off a gutsy performance, he’s just been hit hard too many times and Oleksiejczuk is expected to serve up more of that Saturday.

With his 36th birthday around the corner and nearly 30 pro bouts to his name, Barriault has already begun to see diminishing returns in the cage with two first-round knockouts in his past four fights. He fought well enough to not end up in Shara Bullet’s highlight reel last time, but that’s damning him with faint praise as he still ended up with another loss on his record. Though he has the experience and training, Barriault has frequently relied upon having a hard chin to wade through danger and that card has reached its limit and then some.

So look for Oleksiejczuk to do what he’s supposed to do: Take the fight to Barriault as soon as the bell rings and end this one in the first.

Pick: Oleksiejczuk

Jean Matsumoto vs. Farid Basharat

Technique is the name of this game.

Farid Basharat has the size and reach advantage here, but that’s only going to take him so far against the skilled-beyond-his-years Jean Matsumoto. The 26-year-old bantamweight has been making it up as he goes along against older opponents like Miles Johns and Rob Font, and the results have been mixed. Sometimes, Matsumoto looks like the class of his Contender Series season; other times, like he’s missing that nebulous killer instinct that separates the great fighters from the merely good.

I don’t have those doubts with Basharat. Fundamentally, he’s one of the most gifted fighters on the roster. He controls distance beautifully and rarely risks mistakes, so he’s a true puzzle for Matsumoto. He’ll aggressively look for takedowns, but also won’t hesitate to jab Matsumoto’s face off if it comes to that. Basharat’s defense will have to be up to par, though, because Matsumoto has a nasty Muay Thai style.

Matsumoto’s past two fights have ended in split calls and while I’m expecting a unanimous nod here in Basharat’s favor, both fighters will be sweating the scores until the final bell.

Pick: Basharat

Dustin Jacoby vs. Julius Walker

This is the funny kind of matchup that can only materialize on short notice.

Taking into account his MMA and kickboxing careers, Dustin Jacoby has over times as much professional punching and kicking experience as Julius Walker. Wrestling is the great equalizer and Walker is strong enough to force Jacoby into a few uncomfortable positions. But that’s never been a surefire way to beat Jacoby, especially in the later stages of his career where he’s mastered the art of using his wrestling defensively to set up his classic standup game.

Sincerely, if this stays on the feet, I see no path to victory for Walker. He hits hard, but so do most of Jacoby’s opponents, and few have been able to put him away inside the distance. This is such a mismatch in my eyes and it’s likely only due to Jacoby’s age (he turns 38 this year) that the odds are as close as they are.

I’ve got Jacoby winning a decision and possibly even putting Walker away inside the distance if he’s feeling frisky.

Pick: Jacoby

Daniil Donchenko def. Alex Morono

Nikolay Veretennikov def. Niko Price

Bruna Brasil def. Ketlen Souza

Javid Basharat def. Gianni Vazquez

Eduarda Moura def. Wang Cong

Muin Gafurov def. Jakub Wiklacz

Klaudia Sygula def. Priscila Cachoeira

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