UFC Vegas 114’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Emmett vs. Vallejos

UFC Vegas 114 is live this weekend (Sat., March. 11, 2026) at META APEX in Las Vegas, NV and broadcast on Paramount+. This is the first time UFC has been back to the warehouse since February 7. And it’s bringing a so-so card with it, as was to be expected.

The main card is Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos in the Featherweight division. If the winner of this one lands a big KO, they might be able to squeeze themselves into the immediate title picture (especially if the upcoming Lerone Murphy vs. Movsar Evloev fight is a dud).

The co-main event is Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian Robertson. This is Robertson’s chance to show she is a serious contender at Strawweight. Rounding out the main card is Ion Cutelaba vs. Oumar Sy, Andre Fili vs. Jose Miguel Delgado, Makwan Rahiki vs. Harry Hardwick and Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund.

The UFC Vegas 114 “Prelims” are headlined by Bruno Silva vs. Charles Johnson in the Flyweight division. Surely, there was room for that on the main card, no?

The undercard also has Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders and Chris Curtis vs Mytybek Orolbai (again, those could be main card fights). The undercard also has Bia Mesquita, who could get fast tracked to a Bantamweight title shot this year.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Vegas 114 Main Card Money Line Odds

Josh Emmett (+410) vs. Kevin Vallejos (-550)

Emmett took a quick loss in his last fight, back in October. His highly anticipated top Featherweight clash with Youssef Zalal was over before he knew it, with Zalal rolling for an armbar and getting the tap at just over one and half minutes in round one (see it here). That was the second surging 145 lbs contender to rise risen past him last year. Earlier in 2025 Lerone Murphy took a comfortable five round decision over him. Emmett’s last win was his viral first round KO of Bryce Mitchell (see that here).

Vallejos will try and be the third rising Featherweight to leapfrog Emmett in as many fights on Saturday. The 24 year-old scored his third UFC win in December by obliterating Giga Chikadze (see it here). That win firmly advanced him from pretender to potential contender. That’s something he can solidify this weekend.

His other UFC wins are a decision over the crafty Danny Silva and a TKO over Seung Woo Choi (see it here). Vallejos is 14-1 as a pro and his only loss was to Jean Silva on Contender Series in 2023. That was by decision.

To get straight to the point: I think this is a terrible fight for Emmett at this time in his career. The man just turned 41 and Vallejos just turned 24 in December. I don’t care who the fighters are, anyone in their forties is going to be at disadvantage against someone in their 20s. And I say this as someone in their forties. And now let’s factor in that this twenty-something has looked ferocious lately and that this forty-something has been largely ineffective in his last two bouts.

I’m expecting Vallejos to win here. My big question is whether or not he out strikes Emmett by a ton and takes a lopsided decision or whether he can become the only man, other than Jeremy Stephens, to stop Emmett with strikes.

Emmett’s chin is the stuff of legends. The man was hit with 152 significant strikes from Topuria and didn’t go out. He even survived a 10-8 round against what might be the best striker in the UFC right now. He’s also taken a lot of shots from other heavy hitters in the division, including 84 from Murphy.

In that Murphy fight, Emmett looked quite slow and not very creative. He was loading up for the same big punch and Murphy was able to avoid that and hit him twice for every one that Emmett landed. That fight ended with a 84-41 sig. strike count in Murphy’s favor.

If this goes to a decision, I think we might see Vallejos break 100 sig. strikes. He landed 90 in three rounds against Danny Silva.

The oddsmakers think Vallejos is good for a KO here. It’s just -110 that he finishes the fight that way. Emmett’s toughness is making things a little more interesting, though. Vegas isn’t sure if Vallejos can get Emmett out in the first round or not. Usually, when someone is so assured of a KO victory, the first round KO prop is pretty meagre. But it’s +425 for this fight.

Emmett’s toughness is also why the round total is 3.5 and it’s a pick ‘em right now on the over/under.

The point spread for this is Vallejos -13.5 at -180. I think that might be the best bet out there, since it takes into account Vallejos’ chances of stopping Emmett as well as the chances of this going the distance and Vallejos having some very lopsided scorecards. I’ll take that bet.

Best bet: Kevin Vallejos -13.5 (-180)

Amanda Lemos (+164) vs. Gillian Robertson (-198)

Lemos lost a unanimous decision to Tatiana Suarez in September. Though, that fight was closer than the scorecards suggest. Lemos has been going back and forth between wins and losses since 2021. Her wins include current champ Mackenize Dern and the upstart Iasmin Lucindo. Her losses include Virna Jandiroba (by submission — see it here) and Zhang Weili (in a title fight).

Robertson has been a on tear. She’s won four straight and eight of her last ten. She’s also finished most of her fights over that stretch, including her most recent win over Marina Rodriguez. Robertson has retired both Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson-Gomez over the past two years and given each of them pretty brutal beatings on their way out the door.

This is Robertson’s biggest test as of late. She’s really cut through her opponents, but many of those opponents are just not very good, over the hill or both. Lemos is 38, but she’s still pretty potent; as she showed against Lucindo and, in flashes, against Suarez.

Robertson is going to want to take her down, but Lemos has very good takedown defense. Suarez only managed three takedowns on 12 attempts. And Suarez is someone who lands 4.41 takedowns every 15 minutes. She’s fought a lot of good grapplers in her career and Zhang is the only one who was able to take her down at will. Zhang is special, though.

If Robertson can’t get a lot of takedowns then her submission and ground and pound threat are pretty much nullified. Even if she’s on the ground with Lemos, Lemos’ above average submission defense and get-ups would mitigate a lot of what Robertson can do.

So I think there’s going to be more striking in this match than Robertson is hoping for. I still think she can win a fight like that, though. And that’s partly due to the age factor. Lemos is still technically very good, but her activity has really dropped off lately. In three rounds with Suarez she landed just 23 significant strikes. In three rounds with Lucindo she landed just 12. In Robertson’s last three round fight, against Luana Pinheiro, she landed 52. Before that, against Waterson-Gomez, she landed 77.

I think Robertson is going to have a big positive striking differential in this fight and that should earn her a decision.

Best bet: Gillian Robertson moneyline (-198)

Ion Cutelaba (+195) vs. Oumar Sy (-238)

Cutelaba was on the wrong side of a split decision against Modestas Bukauskas in May. However, most people watching that scored it for Cutelaba (including me). That broke up a mini winning streak the Moldovan, who had put together wins over Ibo Aslan and Ivan Erslan.

Sy was heralded as a super prospect when he came into UFC and easily submitted Tuco Tokkos (see it here). He then took an uninspiring decision over Da Woon Jung. And after that he was upset by Alonzo Menifield (as a -715 favorite!). Most recently he beat up Brendson Ribeiro; truly one of the worst fighters who was on the roster last year.

Sy’s measurements are pretty eye-popping. He has a Jon Jones’ like 83 inch reach. However, he’s been far too passive and boring to make any of that size feel intimidating at this point. He lands a below average 3.67 sig. strikes per minute at a sub-par 48 percent accuracy. Cutelaba lands more than that, but his accuracy is a little worse.

Sy’s sig. strike defense is very high, though, at 70 percent. Even so, I kinda like Cutelaba to play spoiler here. He’s an active fighter and he’s pretty good across all dimensions of MMA, though not elite in any. Sy has great wrestling, but his striking is very raw. I don’t think he can box up Cutelaba and I think Cutelaba has enough wrestling and grappling to not be overwhelmed on the ground or on the fence.

The round total is 1.5 and I think that’s a little ridiculous. I’ll take the over there, but I’m also probably going to play Cutelaba straight up as an underdog.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-154)

Andre Fili (+270) vs. Jose Delgado (-340)

Fili is coming off a split decision win over Christian Rodriguez in August. Before that he lost by first round guillotine to the streaking Melquizael Costa. Fili has gone back and forth between wins and losses over the past eight fights. His losses are pretty respectable, though, including Dan Ige and Nathaniel Wood.

Delgado just lost to Wood, though many scored the fight for him. That wasn’t a robbery, in my opinion, just a very close fight. He came in heavy for that fight, too. Despite the nature of the loss, a lot of the gloss has come off Delgado — who looked like a super prospect after he torched Hyder Amil inside 30 seconds.

Delgado has another chance here to show he’s as good as we all think he is. However, he’s got another tough veteran who knows how to win and make things difficult. I think Delgado likely wins this one, but I don’t think it’s going to be easy.

Delgado dropped Wood in the first round (and was dropped himself), but lost due to takedowns in the second and third round and by being too passive as Wood was walking forwards. Fili could land a couple of takedowns on Delgado in this fight. But I don’t think he’s going to use the same kind of forward pressure that Wood used. In his last fight Fili won by counter punching and I think he’ll try and do that again here.

Fili is getting a ton of points on the point spread. You can get Fili +7.5 at +120 odds. That’s very tempting. I think this goes to a decision and there’s a great chance Fili takes a round, especially if he’s able to use takedowns (like he did to seal a third round against Rodriguez).

Over 2.5 rounds is +145, though. So I might as well take that if I think this is going the distance (especially since I don’t think Fili’s going to finish Delgado).

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (+145)

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Marwan Rahiki (-245) vs. Harry Hardwick (+200)

Let me know in the comments if you can think of a worse UFC debut than what Harry Hardwick went through last year.

Against Kaue Fernandes he had the legs literally kicked out from under him, leading to a slightly embarrassing calf kick TKO (see it here). That being said, I certainly wouldn’t want to take a calf kick from Fernandes. Hardwick had been a Cage Warriors champ before taking that short notice UFC opportunity.

Rahiki is coming off Contender Series for this fight. He won on that show, via TKO, in October. Prior that he mostly fought on Australia’s HEX promotion, where he was a champion. HEX and Cage Warriors are pretty similar in my eyes.

I’m not sure what to expect from Hardwick in his second UFC appearance. In Cage Warriors he was a fun sniper who could snatch up submissions. And I don’t know if he was overwhelmed by the moment in his debut or just Fernandes (who might be very good).

If he doesn’t like aggressive strikers, then Rahiki is a tough match-up. Rahiki throws everything at 100 mph. His striking doesn’t look very clean, but it lands very hard.

I think there’s probably a finish in this fight. I don’t think it happens under 1.5 rounds, though. That total feels quite low, especially when Rahiki’s Octagon prowess is so unknown.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-175)

Vitor Petrino (-238) vs. Steven Asplund (+195)

Petrino is 2-0 since moving up to Heavyweight. In his last fight he stopped Thomas Peterson with a beautiful combo (see it here). Before that he submitted Austen Lane. He moved to Heavyweight after back-to-back losses to Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith. Those are his only career losses.

Asplund successfully transitioned from LFA to Contender Series to UFC fight night in 2025, winning on all those platforms. In his last fight he beat up Sean Sharaf with combinations to cause a second round TKO (see it here). He then got on the mic and delivered an impassioned motivational promo.

Asplund is a very big guy, but he won’t be much taller or longer than Petrino. That really tells you how massive Petrino was as a Light Heavyweight. Asplund is an accurate and fast striker, but this is a big step up in competition for him.

Petrino can crack, but Asplund has had some brawls with fellow big punchers. Petrino can wrestle, too. That’s where Asplund might come undone. Petrino has a big athleticism advantage on Asplund and I think he’s going to be able to take him down and do some damage on the ground.

Asplund’s sole pro loss was to Denzel Freeman back in LFA. Freeman took him down with a suicide throw, a single leg and a body lock throw. He got full mount and took the back with ease after those before eventually getting a rear naked choke win.

So I’m thinking Petrino is probably good for his short odds here.

The round total is very low at 1.5 rounds. I see the finish coming for Petrino, but I’m not sure how soon it comes. I think Petrino can get the finish on the ground, but I’m not sure if he goes for that right away, though. He’ll more likely try his luck on the feet first before pivoting to grappling, if he’s finding too much resistance on the feet. Aspland seems like a tough dude, though. I’ll go with the over.

Now, there is some chatter about Petrino having a broken hand. The betting lines haven’t gone crazy yet, but they might if he turns up to the weigh-in with a balloon for a fist. That’s something to keep an eye on. If he does have a hurt hand, then we might see that grapple attack come early, too.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-175)

UFC Vegas 114 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Charles Johnson (-185) vs. Bruno Silva (+154)

It feels like Johnson just fought. His surprising loss to Alex Perez was at UFC 324 in January. That fight ended in a first round KO (see it here). Johnson came into that fight off his stunning finish over Lone’er Kavanagh in Shanghai (see it here). Johnson might one day have the chance to say he has wins over two UFC flyweight champs — since he KO’d Joshau Van back in 2024 (see it here). Johnson’s impressive wins are always counter balanced by his disappointing losses, though. He’s got Ls to names like Cody Durden and Ode’ Osbourne on his UFC record.

Silva won in October, choking out the formerly hot prospect Hyun Sung Park (see it here). Before that he was finished by Joshua Van. And before that he was finished by Manel Kape (see it here). Silva may lose to the elites, but he seems to do a good job of beating who he is supposed to beat.

The big question on this one is which Charles Johnson shows up?

I’m pretty sure Silva beats the gun shy version who takes a while to get going. Though, Silva has been finished late in fights (the time that Johnson sometimes comes alive).

Johnson has a lot of size in this fight over Silva, including five inches of reach. And he’s pretty good at using that. Silva has the better ground game and we’ve seen Johnson struggle with grapplers in the past (Durden took him down 11 times!).

I really don’t like Johnson coming off a TKO on such short notice. We just saw Cody Brundage, who had the same turnaround, look like a shell of himself in a winnable fight with Donte Johnson. I think Charles Johnson might be a more fit guy than Brundage, but I do see some similarities in the mental game between these two.

I’m going to fade Johnson here.

Best bet: Bruno Silva moneyline (+154)

Brad Tavares (-142) vs. Eryk Anders (+120)

Is this on FOX Sports?

Anders has been with this promotion since 2017. He’s 9-9 and 1 NC here. His last fight was a TKO loss to Christian Leroy Duncan in August (see it here). Before that he won a pretty pointless TKO win over the ghost of Chris Weidman (see it here). He’s not fought much over the past few years, though. He had two fights in 2024 and then just one in 2023.

Tavares has been in UFC since he was on The Ultimate Fighter back in 2010, when that show was still somewhat watchable. This will be his 38th pro fight in the Octagon. He’s been more active than Anders lately. Last year he lost a TKO to Robert Bryczek, but he also got a decision over Gerald Meerschaert. In 2024 he fought twice, losing to Jun Yong Park, by decision, and Gregory Rodrigues by TKO (see it here). He also has a pointless win over Weidman. His was a unanimous decision in 2023.

These guys fight pretty similarly and their stats are near identical across striking and grappling metrics. The biggest differences are Anders sig. strike accuracy (48 vs. 43 percent) and Tavares sig. strike defense (54 vs. 50 percent). Anders goes for takedowns a little more, but Tavares is well known for his excellent takedown defense.

I really think these two are going to cancel each other out and there’s going to be a lot of wall and stall in this fight. This also feels like it has decision written all over it. 67 percent of Tavares’ career wins have gone the distance. 67 percent of Anders UFC wins are by decision. That all is telling me to take the over.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-180)

Chris Curtis (+220) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-270)

This has Fight of the Night written all over it.

Orolbai knocked Jack Hermansson out cold in his last fight (see it here). That was in November. Before that he scored a nasty kimura win against Tofiq Musayev (see it here). That fight happened in Musayev’s home country of Azerbaijan. Orolbai is now 4-1 in UFC, with the one loss being his Fight of the Year with Mateusz Rebecki in 2024.

Curtis won a split decision over Max Griffin in his last fight. That was all the way back in July. Before that, in January, he lost by buzzer beating headkick KO to Roman Kopylov (see it here). Though he was incensed at the fight being called off when it was.

Curtis is a former Middleweight and Orolbai is a former Lightweight. However, physically they will look about the same in this Welterweight bout. Orolbai failed miserably at being a reliable Lightweight, on the scales, so don’t expect Curtis to be bullying him around in there.

Orolbai is a big favorite in this fight. Age has a lot to do with that. Curtis turns 39 in July. Orolbai is a decade younger than him, having recently turned 28. Though, I’d like to see that birth certificate, please.

Both these guys love a scrap and they also sometimes find it difficult to pull themselves out of a fire fight. Orolbai has more to offer than just rock ‘em sock ‘em robots, though. If this goes to the ground I expect him to have sizable advantage there.

Curtis has good takedown defense, but I think the age factor is going to effect that a lot in this fight. I can see these guys landing good shots on the feet, but Orolbai being able to follow up hard shots with a takedown. Or even hide behind some wrestling if he does get hurt.

I think this one goes the distance, though, due to how tough and durable both men are.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-154)

Bolaji Oki (+220) vs. Manoel Sousa (-270)

Oki was stopped by Mason Jones in September (see it here). Before that he took a decision over Michael Aswell Jr.. And before that he was choked out by Chris Duncan’s famous guillotine (see it here). He’s now 10-3.

Sosa is coming right off Contender Series. He won by TKO back in August. He’s 13-1 as a pro with time spent in LFA, PFL and Bellator. He’s the owner of a TKO finish over Mauricio Ruffy, which happened back in 2019. Ruffy’s only other loss is the one he took to Benoit Saint-Denis recently. Sousa folded Ruffy in their fight with an overhand left, off a straight right to the body. He’s a violent dude.

Oki is pretty violent, too, but a little more wild. I credit Sousa’s body of work more than Oki’s at this point, so I think the Brazilian is going to make a big splash here in his first proper UFC fight.

I’ll take the under, since it feels like Sousa is either going to get a brutal finish quickly or leave himself open for something big coming from Oki.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-188)

Luan Lacerda (+190) vs. Hecher Sosa (-220)

Lacerda earned his first UFC win in October, taking down and submitting Saimon Oliveira (see it here). Nova Uniao’s Lacerda lost to Cody Stamman and Da’Mon Blackshear (by TKO) to start his UFC career. He’s a former Shooto champ.

Sosa won on Contender Series in September, by decision. He’s 14-1 as a pro, with his one loss being his fourth ever fight back in 2022. He also had a lengthy amateur career. He fought 21 times as an amateur (going 17-4) which is a little unheard of for someone making it to UFC.

Sosa is from the Canary Islands, which has a proud wrestling tradition. He used that wrestling to dominate in his Contender Series fight, using the body lock a lot (just like we saw Charles Oliveira use on Max Holloway this past weekend).

This could be a really interesting fight. I think Sosa might be able to get a lot of takedowns. However, Lacerda has a very dangerous guard and he will be throwing up a lot of submissions on the ground. I love fights like that.

My feeling is that this probably goes to a decision (Sosa isn’t a killer finisher on the ground) and Sosa’s top control will count more than Lacerda’s submission attempts. I think it could be a really close decision, though.

Best bet: Hecher Sosa moneyline (-220)

Bia Mesquita (-470) vs. Montse Rendon (+36)

Mesquita might be the best BJJ practitioner in women’s MMA right now. If the former ADCC and Worlds champ wins this weekend, I hope she gets catapulted up the rankings and her next fight is against a top five opponent. She’s 34, having switched to MMA only in 2024, and the UFC will need to act fast if they want to use her as a credible title challenger. She’s 6-0 in MMA and she didn’t break a sweat in her UFC debut in October, submitting Irina Alekseeva with ease (see it here).

Rendon is 2-1 in UFC with split decision wins over Alice Pereira and Tamires Vidal. Her loss was a unanimous decision to Darya Zhelzeniakova. She was submitted by Julianna Miller on the grappling circuit, so I’m not expecting Mesquita to have any issues with her on the ground.

The big challenge will be getting Rendon down in the first place. She does have a one hundred percent takedown defense right now after she defended three takedowns from Vidal and three from Zhelzeniakova. Mesquita is a level above those two, though, and her takedowns looked good against Alekseeva.

Mesquita is a massive favorite in this fight and I don’t think Rendon is capable of a big surprise. The round total is 1.5 and I’ll do the unthinkable in taking the under, since I think Mesquita, now comfortable in her UFC surroundings, is going to get a quick tap in this one.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-200)

Elijah Smith (-198) vs. SuYoung You (+164)

I honestly thought Smith killed a man in his last fight. He slammed Toshiomi Kazama so hard on the back of his head that I thought he was a goner. Thankfully that wasn’t the case. Smith also hit Kazama with the disgusting follow up strike you see above. For how many guys we see don’t do this, I find it hard to believe this is something fighters can’t control.

This was Smith’s seventh win in a row and third inside a UFC Octagon.

You is a Road to UFC product. He won that series in 2024 with a decision over Baergeng Jieleyisi. He has since taken decisions AJ Cunningham and Xiao Long. I thought he lost the Long fight, though.

This is a tough assignment for You. He’s a wrestler, but so is Smith. And Smith has power in his hands he can throw when he’s not grappling. You has done a good job, so far in UFC, of mitigating damage. He has a very high 70 percent defense against sig. strikes. This is the best striker he’s faced so far, though.

I think Smith will be able to do enough work on the feet to get past You, while also nullifying You’s wrestling game.

Best bet: Elijah Smith moneyline (-198)

Piera Rodriguez vs. Sam Hughes (+130)

Cardio machine Sam Hughes aka ‘Sampage’ (or should that be ‘She-rab’?) has won her last three. She was especially impressive in her last bout, against Shauna Bannon, which she won by submission (see it here). Prior to that she out-worked Stephanie Luciano and Victoria Dudakova for split decisions.

Rodriguez has won two straight. Her last fight was a split decision win over the heavy hitting Ketlen Souza. Before that she beat another striker, by unanimous decision, in the form of Josefine Knuttsson. Before those wins Rodriguez lost by DQ when she repeatedly headbutted Ariane Carnelossi (see it here).

This is a rematch… yeah, I don’t know what the point is of rematches outside of title fights or title eliminators. Rodriguez beat Hughes in 2022, by unanimous decision.

Rodriguez’s wrestling won her that bout. She took Hughes down five times on eleven attempts. She only landed three ground strikes, though. She did manage to out land Hughes on the feet (80-69 on standing sig. strikes). She was also only able to hold Hughes down for just under two minutes.

Hughes has improved a lot since then, but she is still getting taken down a fair bit. She has really upped her output since that fight, though. In her last three fights that went the distance she landed over 75 sig. strikes and came close to 100 against Dudakova.

If she can limit how long she spends on the ground against Rodriguez, like she did in the last fight, I think Hughes’ improved volume striking might help her inch past Rodriguez on the scorecards.

Best bet: Sam Hughes moneyline (+130)

UFC Vegas 114 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Kevin Vallejos to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+600)

Vallejos is 24. Emmett is 41. I just hate this match-up for the old guy (who is the same age as me as of Monday). Vallejos works fast and packs a heck of a punch. Emmett is famous for his chin, as shown in his match with Topuria. But Father Time is undefeated. Emmett is on the decline and Vallejos has a great chance of making a big statement against him.

Two-bet parlay: Ion Cutelaba and Bruno Silva (+649)

Cutelaba is a fantastic spoiler, so I don’t have much fear of betting on him as an underdog. He also might be very motivated to finish this one, given how screwed over he was by the judges last time out. Oumar Sy has also been very underwhelming in most his fights. My bet on Silva is as much a fade on Charles Johnson as anything else. I don’t think it’s a good idea for him to be in here with such a tough fighter after being TKO’d less than three months ago.

Gillian Robertson vs. Amanda Lemos – Point to Be Deducted (+2000)

I feel the tides are changing a little bit in MMA refereeing. The refs are starting to get more firm out there, after some embarrassing incidents from last year. We’ve seen a few point deductions and some very stern warnings lately. Xiao Long vs. Cody Garbrandt had a hilarious amount of fouls and referee interventions. I don’t think this fight will have anything happen to that degree, but maybe Lemos grabs the fence to stay up too many times (the refs really need to do a better job of catching those) or perhaps Robertson will land some eye pokes or punches to the back of the head.

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 114: “Emmett vs. Vallejos” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

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