UFC Winnipeg preview and predictions: Is this the end of the road for Gilbert Burns?

It’s been nearly a decade since Robbie Lawler and Rafael dos Anjos collided in a clash of former champions atop the UFC’s most recent trip to Winnipeg, Canada. For the promotion’s return this Saturday, the welterweight division once again occupies the spotlight.

This year’s event heavily contrasts with 2017’s main event. On one side, 39-year-old one-time title challenger Gilbert Burns clings to relevancy after losing four straight against the cream of the crop at 170 pounds. Burns’ résumé and experience have turned him into the perfect litmus test for future contenders, setting the stage for Canada’s Mike Malott to prove himself in his first UFC main event.

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Sprinkles of national flavor can be found through the overall offering of UFC Winnipeg, but similar to the recent UFC Vegas 115 event, this card is in dire straits. UFC has essentially taken a Meta Apex event and shoved it up north to the Canada Life Center, coming nowhere near selling out the venue’s 17,000-capacity.

👑 UFC Winnipeg’s lineup Crown grade: F- 👑

Betting odds via BetMGM.

170 pounds: Gilbert Burns (+275) vs. Mike Malott (-350)

Pressure rides relatively heavily on Malott in his second straight bout on home soil.

Malott, 34, suffered the lone setback of his UFC career three fights ago against his most seasoned opponent, Neil Magny. The fight was firmly in Malott’s control until Magny’s veteran savvy overwhelmed a gassed Malott late to secure a stunning stoppage. Malott has since sealed up any holes in his gas tank, but faced with another high-profile spot, he’ll surely have some flashbacks to overcome Saturday night.

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Burns is clearly at the tail-end of his career, and a loss could very well spell the end — and arguably should. However, as previously mentioned, the dude has lost exclusively to the division’s best throughout his entire 170-pound run. Like, literally. Let’s rattle off the names just to further highlight it: Kamaru Usman, Khamzat Chimaev, Belal Muhammad, Jack Della Maddalena, Sean Brady and Michael Morales.

All but two of those men are championship-level opponents, with the latter two still being well capable of eventually holding gold, especially the Ecuadorian dynamo Morales.

When it comes to each headliner’s games, Malott has been the well-rounded “Canadian Army Knife” of a welterweight prospect. He does everything solidly without particularly excelling in any one area. Burns, on the other hand, forever has his incredible jiu-jitsu to play with. Malott has been comfortable more often than not in grappling exchanges, but for his own safety, this is a fight he’ll want to make primarily a striking affair — and he has the tools and speed to out-duel Burns at this stage of their careers.

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Realistically, the only danger for Malott here is on the ground and avoiding another gas-out if the fight reaches the late rounds. The Canadian has never fought five rounds, and while he’s still largely unproven compared to the opposition Burns usually faces, Father Time is everyone’s worst enemy. Malott has seemingly made the proper adjustments and improvements throughout his three-fight win streak.

Pick: Malott

135 pounds: Charles Jourdain (-155) vs. Kyler Phillips (+130)

There was a point when Kyler Phillips looked like one of the next notable contenders at 135 pounds. Then he ran into Rob Font and got hit with a reality check.

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Phillips, 30, still has room to right those wrongs and get back on track after a follow-up loss to Vinicius Oliveira. Charles Jourdain, however, has found new life in his first two appearances at bantamweight.

Typically considered a fun striker, Jourdain has forced opponents to remember to protect their necks as well, as he’ll latch on to a guillotine whenever allowed.

Simply put, that’s largely been Jourdain’s signature move regardless of weight. Any grappling exchanges that feel imminent will put Phillips in grave danger. On the feet, he’ll have to match the pace and explosiveness Jourdain provides, but it’ll take walking through some fire. With the Canadian crowd and momentum behind him, this feels like Jourdain’s fight to lose.

Pick: Jourdain

155 pounds: Mandel Nallo (-190) vs. Jai Herbert (+160)

Rat. Freakin’. Garbage.

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The bizarrely nicknamed Bellator alum debuts in the Octagon a week removed from Aaron Pico vs. Patricio Pitbull, and two weeks after fellow Bellator veteran Lance Gibson Jr. scored a win of his own.

2026 is a weird time, folks.

Nonetheless, Nallo gets a great opportunity in his debut, tasked with Jai Herbert, who, at this juncture, may very well be best known for his loss to Ilia Topuria. And that’s a bit of a shame, as Herbert is a former Cage Warriors titleholder. His UFC run has been wildly inconsistent though, with him losing whenever a notable name is put in front of him.

At his best, Herbert has shown sharp kickboxing skills. Nallo, however, is much more of a terror than fans may realize. The dude has been allergic to the judges since his fifth pro bout. He’s as get-or-get-got as it comes, and that’s by any method imaginable. In other words, Nallo goes for the finish, and he’s been finding it in rapid succession since he parted ways with Bellator — five straight first-round stoppages, with a sixth on the way.

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Pick: Nallo

125 pounds: Jasmine Jasudavicius (-300) vs. Karine Silva (+240)

The oddsmakers are highly underestimating Brazil’s Karine Silva in this flyweight affair. This could end up being the most competitive fight on the card.

Prior to getting starched by Manon Fiorot in Vancouver last October, Jasmine Jasudavicius was on a very impressive five-fight tear. Her loss was no fluke, but Silva’s overall skill set demands more respect in a matchup in which the Brazilian should be able to hold her own.

Each woman here has fairly similar games, possessing well-rounded abilities. They can each fight anywhere, but have comfort zones. Jasudavicius should be able to use her length to strike and chip away at Silva, who has proven to be a threat more on the ground with her aggressive submission game. Jasudavicius is at her best when she mixes up her game, so it’ll be important to make Silva think about everything rather than imposing a game plan that heavily relies on striking. Coincidentally, the same can be said about Silva, so it ultimately boils down to who initiates and dictates the action first and more aggressively.

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It’s a rebound attempt for each, but I slightly lean toward Canada’s own, simply for having fought better competition.

Pick: Jasudavicius

155 pounds: Thiago Moisés (+105) vs. Gauge Young (-125)

Compared to the previous four fights, this one admittedly feels like a random inclusion on this card.

Thiago Moises is far from being one of the flashiest guys at 155 pounds, but he’s the kind of opportunistic veteran who punishes mistakes, specifically on the mat. There’s no secret the man wants to show off his jiu-jitsu at all costs. And when he does, he ends fights on his terms.

Before he entered the UFC, Gauge Young brought physicality and early danger to the U.S regional scene, but this feels like a steep step up in competition. There’s a clear experience gap here, and against someone as composed as Moises, that usually shows fast. Young might have a moment or two on the feet, especially if he applies heavy pressure, but all it takes is one scramble for Moises to take over — and once it hits the ground, it’s likely a wrap, whether by submission or a clear, grappling-heavy decision.

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Pick: Moises

145 pounds: Dennis Buzukja (+340) vs. Márcio Barbosa (-450)

There’s nothing the UFC loves more than a main-card opener showcase bout. Welcome to the big show, Marcio Barbosa. Here’s your opponent, Dennis Buzukja, who’s 1-3 in the UFC and fighting for his job.

Buzujka was one of those Contender Series failures who returned to the regional circuit to win his way to a UFC contract despite winning his Contender Series bout. Barbosa capitalized on his own Contender Series moment last August, when he viciously blasted and smashed Damon Wilson in Round 1. The Brazilian is in that same boat as Nallo, refusing to go to decisions, finishing or getting finished every time out. He comes out fast and looks for the kill from the moment the fight starts.

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Barbosa’s aggressive approach will be too much here.

Pick: Barbosa

Preliminary Notes

Despite the setback against Luana Santos in her sophomore UFC bout, Melissa Croden showed up and showed out in her debut in Vancouver against Tainara Lisboa. She displayed a tenacity rarely seen in the puttering bantamweight division, but obviously met resistance in her follow-up bout. Darya Zheleznyakova makes for a similar opponent to Santos, and with age on her side, still has decent upside.

Aside from that fight, Jamie Siraj finally makes his UFC debut after escaping near-death via a scary brain infection that left him in an 18-month coma between 2020-22. It’s quite the wild and inspirational story.

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The UFC Winnipeg prelims are preliming, indeed. These are fights, folks.

Quick picks:

• Robert Valentin (-135) def. Julien Leblanc (+110)

• Tanner Boser (+140) def. Gökhan Saricam (-170)

• Melissa Croden (-170) def. Darya Zheleznyakova (+140)

• Jamey-Lyn Horth (-160) def. JJ Aldrich (+135)

• John Castañeda (-120) def. Mark Vologdin (+100)

• Jamie Siraj (-250) def. John Yannis (+200)