The battle of the bigs is the top storyline for UNC basketball vs. Duke.
It’ll be Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar for the 14th-ranked Tar Heels (18-4, 6-3 ACC) against Cameron Boozer, Pat Ngongba and Maliq Brown for the fourth-ranked Blue Devils (21-1, 10-0) on Saturday, Feb. 7 (6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) at the Smith Center in Chapel Hill.
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Looking beyond what should be a powerful struggle in the paint, there are several other factors that could determine the outcome of the 266th meeting in the Tobacco Road rivalry.
Let’s break down two of those areas that could be keys for the Tar Heels against the Blue Devils:
UNC basketball fast-break points vs Duke
The Tar Heels prefer an uptempo, high-possession game, and the Blue Devils like to lean into the opposite approach. So, the pace on Roy Williams Court will be among the things to watch.
“From an offensive standpoint, we want to play at tremendous pace … we’re really good when we’re out in transition,” UNC coach Hubert Davis said. “But that comes from getting stops, that comes from rebounding and that allows us to get out in transition. So, that’s gonna be huge for us.”
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Through 22 games, UNC is averaging 12.4 fast-break points and allowing an average of 7.5. Duke sits at 10.9 fast-break points per game, with opponents averaging 8.3 through 22 games.
“We just have to dictate the pace of the game. That’s gonna allow us to play at the best of our ability,” UNC freshman Caleb Wilson said. “They have a slower play style. They like to walk the ball up the court and get into the offense and do exactly what they wanna do. It’s up to us to speed them up and make their simple plays, and their execution, difficult.”
The Tar Heels are 140th in adjusted tempo, with an average of 68.1 possessions per game, and 68th in average possession length at 16.4 seconds per KenPom. Duke is 250th in adjusted tempo, averaging 65.9 possessions per game, and 76th in average possession length at 16.5 seconds.
Senior guard Seth Trimble is the primary piece in UNC’s plan to push the pace, along with freshman guard Derek Dixon.
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In 13 games with Trimble, the Tar Heels are averaging 14.3 fast-break points, with three games of 20 or more points in the open court. In nine games without Trimble, UNC averaged 9.5 fast-break points, and its highest total in that stretch was 16 points in transition.
The Blue Devils have only allowed one team (Lipscomb) to score 20 or more points on the break. The Bisons did it by forcing Duke into a season-worst 22 turnovers.
“That’s a huge point of emphasis for us. Every game it is, but we know, especially in games like this, we feel like there’s not a lot of teams in college basketball that can keep up with our pace,” Trimble said.
“So, we’re gonna try to use it to our advantage and just take control of the transition game. We know if we can control that, and do what we need to do, then we can put ourselves in a really good position.”
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Screens vital for Tar Heels vs Blue Devils
It’s not something that shows up on a stat line in a box score, but screening is a major component of efficient offenses.
Because of Duke’s physicality, length, athleticism and relentless ball pressure, the Tar Heels will need to set solid screens and cut effectively to create quality scoring opportunities and maintain its high-level efficiency.
“Obviously, they’re very physical defensively. They like to get over ball screens, and they’ll change up their ball-screen coverage. Off the ball, they’re just as physical getting through screens,” Davis said.
“For us to be able to execute offensively and get the shots, and generate the shots that we want, the only way we can do that is screen really well. … It’s been beneficial for us when we’ve been able to do it at a high level.”
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The Blue Devils limit opponents to an average of 63.6 points per game, which is the eight-best scoring defense nationally. Duke is third in defensive efficiency, and UNC is 18th in offensive efficiency, averaging 83.1 points per game. Duke has allowed 70 points in seven of its 22 games, holding teams to an average of 55.6 points over the last six games.
UNC is 14th nationally in turnover percentage, per KenPom, at 13.7% through 22 games. The Tar Heels take care of the ball, but it’s a lot easier when solid screens and movement can limit defenders from jumping into passing lanes.
The Blue Devils have 416 deflections, according to their pregame notes, averaging 18.9 per game. Defensive stalwart Maliq Brown leads the way with 120, averaging 5.5 per game. Brown has the best steal percentage in the ACC at 5.2%, which is the sixth-best mark nationally.
If UNC doesn’t bring its best screening and purposeful cutting against the sticky Blue Devils, it’ll be tough to generate the points necessary to win.
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“It’s gotten better, but it’s not where we need it to be. At the beginning of the year, screens struggled. It’s just huge for us to be able to be able to get an advantage for our guards getting downhill,” Davis said.
“For Caleb, Henri, Jarin (Stevenson), Zayden (High), whether it’s rolling or popping, being able to get space. Every day we talk about setting solid and legal screens. It’s just a huge part of our offense. It’s really big for us. It’s something that we talk about, it’s something that we practice every day, something that we teach every day. It’ll be a huge factor for us (against Duke).”
Rodd Baxley covers North Carolina Tar Heels athletics for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding UNC? Send them to rbaxley@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: UNC basketball vs Duke: Keys for Tar Heels to win at Smith Center
