Vladimir Guerrero Jr. turned down half a billion dollars* from the Toronto Blue Jays. You can probably guess what that asterisk means at this point.
According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, Guerrero rejected an extension offer in excess of $500 million from the Blue Jays, but with enough deferred money to lower the present-day value to between $400 million and $450 million. Guerrero reportedly signaled he was willing to accept deferrals, but only if the contract value was still $500 million.
Such a contract would have likely seen Guerrero surpass the total money of Shohei Ohtani’s groundbreaking $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, calculated to be worth about $460 million in present-day money from when it was signed.
However, it would have been well short of Juan Soto’s incredible 15-year, $765 million deal, which contains no deferred money and could in fact have a value north of $800 million if certain escalators are met.
Guerrero shut down contract talks with the Blue Jays at the start of spring training, a self-imposed deadline to lock down the first baseman a season before he hits what is sure to be a lucrative free agency. The 25-year-old, who turns 26 on Sunday, told ESPN last week that he was negotiating for a contract length similar to Soto’s deal, but not for the same money.
“It’s much less than Soto. We’re talking about many fewer millions than Soto, more than a hundred million less. … It was the same number of years [as Soto’s contract], but it didn’t reach [$600 million]. The last number we gave them as a counteroffer didn’t reach 600,” Guerrero said.
“I know the business. I lowered the salary demands a bit, but I also lowered the number of years. … I’m looking for 14 [years]. I would like 14, 15, even 20 if they give them to me, but doing it the right way.”
Guerrero is the consensus top free agent in next winter’s class, along with Chicago Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker and San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease.
Simply put, Guerrero hasn’t been as consistent a star as some other mega-contract players. Going off OPS+, which normalizes for park and era, four of his six seasons in Toronto have been worse than Soto’s career-worst mark of 142 in 2018, which was his rookie year. Same with Aaron Judge, who hasn’t gone below 143 since his first season. Mike Trout was considered to be in the nadir of his career because he was at 132 in 2023.
However, Guerrero still has one of the highest offensive ceilings in baseball and will be hitting free agency at roughly the same age as Soto, and nothing is as important as age in free agency.
Deferred money is fast becoming the norm for mega-contracts in MLB, with a progenitor in Bobby Bonilla, a pioneer in Max Scherzer and a perfecter in Ohtani, who took the idea into overdrive by deferring 97% of the money in his deal. Teams love it because it keeps their CBT payroll down, allowing them to avoid luxury tax payments, and players often don’t mind it because they’re still getting the money they ask for and often have it offset via a signing bonus.
The Dodgers used the system repeatedly over the offseason, but so did other teams. That’s going to continue until MLB sees a problem with it.
