I don’t know about you, but I was ready to leave Saturday’s game in the rearview mirror about midway through the second half.
So let’s turn our attention to the postseason. When the news came out after the Miami game that Caleb Wilson would be out indefinitely with a broken hand, I wrote that it might be better to wait until we had a clearer picture of Wilson’s health and where the Tar Heels would land on the bracket before deciding what NCAA Tournament results would be acceptable.
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Well, that time has come. In a cruel twist of fate, Wilson broke his thumb in practice just as he was ramping up to return to the lineup last week, necessitating season-ending surgery. The fact that we won’t get to see one of college basketball’s most exciting players on the sport’s biggest stage is profoundly unfair, and it forces us to once again adjust our expectations for the outcome of Carolina’s season.
The Tar Heels are 5-2 without Wilson, including quality wins over Louisville and Clemson, the latter of which will be their opponent in the ACC quarterfinals barring an upset by Virginia Tech or Wake Forest. Much like the first game, a rematch with Clemson feels like a toss-up. Based on current bracket projections, the result could determine whether Carolina gets a #5 or #6 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
If the Tar Heels are a #5 seed, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect them to make it out of the first weekend. It’s clear that this is still a talented, capable team without Wilson, even if it’s also clear that they likely won’t be able to hang with an elite opponent. For that reason, I won’t be upset if Carolina can’t crack the Sweet 16 as a #6 seed (all of this is, of course, subject to change if an upset or two gives UNC a more favorable path).
What are your NCAA Tournament expectations for Carolina? Let me know your outlook for the tournament in the comments below.
