Michigan basketball’s emotional leader, Will Tschetter, spoke definitively.
The Wolverines had just locked up a share of the Big Ten title with a 77-67 victory at home over Minnesota, but the entire team’s reaction was rather subdued. And so, Tschetter issued his statement:
Advertisement
“We’ll go to Illinois and handle business,” Tschetter said to the Crisler Center crowd following the victory.
As coach Dusty May said, “nobody wants to share” this championship, and Michigan has its first of potentially three opportunities to make sure that it claims the crown outright. It figures to be a tough test for No. 3 Michigan (26-2, 16-1 Big Ten) against No. 11 Illinois (22-6, 12-4). Here are three keys to Michigan’s sixth top-12 clash of the season at State Farm Center on Friday, Feb. 27 (8 p.m., Fox).
HOMECOMING: ‘Morez Johnson classic’ has Michigan fired up for Illinois game
Handle the size
Michigan’s built-in advantage in nearly every game this season has been its ability to overwhelm opponents with its length and size.
Advertisement
The one time U-M didn’t have a distinct advantage was last week against Duke – the second-tallest roster in the nation, per KenPom – in a 68-63 loss, one of just two U-M defeats this season. The Illini figure to pose similar problems with the largest roster, featuring an average height of 6 feet 8.
Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) grabs a rebound during the second half against the Northwestern Wildcats at State Farm Center.
The Blue Devils not only used their size, but their hunger, to outrebound Michigan, 41-28, resulting in the Wolverines’ worst rebounding margin of the entire season. If Michigan is going to win in a hostile environment, it has to be more effective on the glass, which won’t be easy. The Illini are the No. 3 offensive rebounding team (39.6%) in the country. It’s a challenge on the forefront of May’s mind.
“Have you watched them play?” May said. “Them on the glass and what they did to us last year, those are the things. … It is futile warfare every time that ball goes up. They’re not accepting blockouts, they’re not accepting anything other than maximum effort.
Advertisement
“Typically there’s four on the glass and they’re going at every angle, every single time − so they challenge you in a lot of areas with great positional size.”
Michigan Wolverines forward Morez Johnson Jr. drives to the basket as Ohio State Buckeyes center Christoph Tilly defends during the first half at Value City Arena, Feb. 8, 2026.
Limit the range, opportunities, efficiency
Illinois likes to shoot 3-pointers.
Brad Underwood’s team shoots 3s on 39.8% of its possessions, 17th-most in the country. While some think they need to use their size down low more frequently, it’s a bit hard to argue with the results − Illinois has the nation’s No. 1 offensive efficiency rating (133), per KenPom.
It’s not that the Illini are an elite 3-point shooting team – they’re solid at 35.7% (No. 82). But coupled with their offensive rebounding rate and ability to protect the ball, with turnovers on just 13.6% of possessions (No. 13), it leads to a lot of extra scoring opportunities.
Advertisement
Keaton Wagler, the favorite for Big Ten Freshman of the Year, is shooting 42% on 3s, Jake Davis, who plays about 20 minutes per game, is shooting 41.3% and David Mirkovic is third at 38.1% (on four attempts per game).
In case the sheer amount of shots the Illini get off in a game isn’t concerning enough, they’re also incredibly efficient when they are fouled, ranking No. 6 from the free throw line (79.6%) as a team.
“Their bigs pick and pop, they have the frontrunner for player of the league,” May said. “I can go on and on about what will keep me up.”
Handling the crowd, snapping the streak
Michigan is 2-0 in its two most hostile environments this year: at Michigan State and Purdue. While State Farm Center might be a tick below those, it certainly figures to deliver a similar experience.
Advertisement
Trey McKenney has grown up watching the Big Ten and has long taken notice of how animated the crowds are at State Farm Center, particularly in the student section, known as “Orange Krush.”
Jan 21, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Fighting Illini Orange Krush fans cheer on the team as they play the Maryland Terrapins during the second half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Fred Zwicky-Imagn Images
It has been a grind for the Wolverines, who have played nine games the past 28 days – six on the road and four against top-11 teams. On the season, U-M is 6-1 in ranked matchups, 13-1 away from home and 13-1 in Quad I games. But the program, as a whole, has long struggled with Illinois.
Michigan has lost nine consecutive games against the Illini − Dusty May is 0-1, while Juwan Howard went 0-8 during his tenure. The last win for the program came in John Beilein’s final season in Ann Arbor, 79-69, on Jan. 10, 2019.
Advertisement
The message from May will be the same he gave his team in East Lansing earlier this year, where the program had been 3-20 this century at Breslin Center: “This team is 0-0 here. Let’s leave here 1-0.”
Michigan vs Illinois prediction
Michigan has not played its best for a couple games in a row. Duke outmuscled and hustled the Wolverines and Minnesota played a slow, grinding game that took the Wolverines out of their rhythm.
This should be a more free-flowing game, which plays into U-M’s strength, but size has been one of very few things to give U-M problems. The environment will be rocking and hungry dogs run faster. KenPom has this as a one-point Michigan win and if this were March, on a neutral site, U-M probably would win. But this is the last spot where it feels like a genuine coin flip. This time, it comes up tails, on the Wolverines’ heads. The pick: Illinois 83, U-M 80.
Advertisement
Tony Garcia is the Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball vs Illinois prediction, game score
